Australian house prices set to surge across the country
A new KPMG report reveals one capital will punch well above its weight
A new KPMG report reveals one capital will punch well above its weight
Hobart is set to be the new property hotspot over the next two years as house prices surge across the country, a new report from KPMG has shown.
The southern capital is expected to overtake Perth, where house prices will be strongest in the short term, rising by 8.4 percent over the second half of 2024, to increase by 14.2 percent in 2025.
Not surprisingly, the Melbourne and Sydney markets will experience long term price rises, up by 12 percent and 10.3 percent respectively to June 2025.
The KPMG report revealed that prices will increase nationally by 4.9 percent over the next nine months before a 9.4 percent uptick by June 2025.
KPMG chief economist Dr Brendan Rynne said a lack of supply had overtaken concerns about the impact of interest rate rises.
“Despite high interest rates, constrained supply will likely dominate the factors influencing property prices in the short term and result in continued price gains in most markets during FY24,” Dr Rynne said. “House and unit prices will then accelerate further in the next financial year as dwelling supply continues to be limited, due to scarcity of available land, falling levels of approvals and slower or more costly construction activity.”
Demand will be further fuelled by higher levels of migration, he said, while anticipated interest rate cuts in 2025 could well draw more buyers into the market, putting further pressure on prices. From a supply perspective, he said barriers for developers building new homes was hindering the availability of future stock.
Dr Rynne said the impact of mortgage stress was still a potential factor putting downward pressure on prices but had been outstripped by market demand.
“There are some factors pushing the other way – the main one being mortgage stress,” he said. “First-time buyers now need to use around half their earnings on mortgage payments – a significant rise from a third just three years ago.
“We estimate around $350 billion of mortgages, or half of all fixed rate credit will expire this year – covering 880,000 Australian households. The remaining 38 percent of fixed rate credit, which includes about 450,000 loan facilities, will expire in 2024 and beyond. Some homeowners who previously locked in low rates might be unable to pay – and won’t be able to refinance to a lower and competitive rate.”
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