Property prices have already peaked, CoreLogic data reveals
The days of a quick turnaround on property may have passed
The days of a quick turnaround on property may have passed
The number of properties selling at a loss is on the rise, CoreLogic reports.
The financial services company’s latest Pain & Gain Report, which examined about 102,000 property sales that happened in the June quarter revealed that profit-making sales plateaued at 93.8 percent compared to the previous three months. In the three months to April, profit-making sales hit a peak of 94.1 percent.
The peak aligned with the first of the RBA’s cash rate increases and consequent interest rate hikes.
“This particular Pain & Gain report provides a line in the sand and confirms the moment when the housing market peaked and started to turn,” head of research at CoreLogic, Eliza Owen said. “The figures align with peak growth in our national Home Value Index and highlights the decline in the rate of profit-making sales, which has been largely influenced by an increase in the rate of loss-making resales in Sydney and Melbourne.”
The greatest losses were felt in Sydney and Melbourne. Loss making sales in Sydney increased by 160 basis points to 6.4 percent while Melbourne experienced a 50 basis point hike.
The news was more positive in some of the smaller capitals, with Hobart and Canberra coming out on top with 99.1 percent of resales experiencing gains.
Perhaps not surprisingly, at a national level longer hold periods were associated with greater gains. The report revealed that property owners who sold after 30 years achieved a median nominal return of more than $800,000.
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Buying activity by companies fell in line with the decline in overall home sales amid higher borrowing costs
Investor buying of homes tumbled 30% in the third quarter, a sign that the rise in borrowing rates and high home prices that pushed traditional buyers to the sidelines are causing these firms to pull back, too.
Companies bought around 66,000 homes in the 40 markets tracked by real-estate brokerage Redfin during the third quarter, compared with 94,000 homes during the same quarter a year ago. The percentage decline in investor purchases was the largest in a quarter since the subprime crisis, save for the second quarter of 2020 when the pandemic shut down most home buying.
The investor pullback represents a turnaround from months ago when their purchases were still rising fast. These firms bought homes in record numbers last year and earlier this year, helping to supercharge the housing market.
Now, investors are reducing their buying activity in line with the decline in overall home sales, which have slumped with mortgage rates rising fast. But with investors’ large cash positions, and with big firms such as JPMorgan Chase & Co. planning to increase its exposure to the home-buying business, investors are poised to resume more aggressive buying when rates or home prices begin to ease.
These firms have seized on a pandemic-driven rise in demand for houses in suburban areas. These owners rented out the homes and increased rents on homes by double-digit percentages. By the first quarter of 2022, investors accounted for one in every five home purchases nationally.
But ballooning borrowing costs have kept investors from buying as much recently, said John Pawlowski, an analyst at Green Street. Buyers and sellers are also agreeing less often on pricing, stifling sales.
“It leads to a lot of people just putting down the pen,” Mr. Pawlowski said.
Rent growth has also begun to slow. Rents for single-family homes rose 10.1% year over year in September, down from 13.9% in April, according to housing data firm CoreLogic.
That rate of growth is still very high by historical standards, however, and much stronger than in the apartment market. Multifamily rent increases are now much lower by most measures. Near record-high rental prices are failing to attract as many new tenants, and demand in the third quarter fell to its lowest level in 13 years.
Demand for rental houses has held up better, in part because many of these homes are leased to relatively high-earning people who have found the for-sale market too expensive to buy, some analysts say.
That rent growth for single-family owners hasn’t translated into stock-market gains this year. Investors have lumped these owners in with home builders and sold many of them. Shares for the three largest publicly traded owners, Invitation Homes, American Homes 4 Rent and Tricon Residential, are each down more than 25% year to date, underperforming the S&P 500 over that period.
Rental landlords also face headwinds from rising property tax assessments that have come alongside enormous increases in home-price appreciation.
At the same time, large rental landlords are coming under greater scrutiny from federal and local governments. Congressional Democrats have hosted a series of hearings focused on eviction practices and rent increases. Three Congress members from California this month introduced a bill called the “Stop Wall Street Landlords Act,” which proposes levying new taxes on single-family landlords. It would prevent government-sponsored enterprises like Freddie Mac from acquiring and securitising their debt.
Many of the places where investors have eased purchasing are the same cities where they had counted for an outsize share of total sales. That includes Las Vegas and Phoenix, where investor sales dropped more than 44% in the third quarter compared with a year ago.
Fewer purchases by online house-flippers, or iBuyers, may have contributed to those declines, according to Redfin. Redfin decided to close its own home-flipping business, RedfinNow, earlier this month.
Nationally, investors still accounted for 17.5% of all home sales in the third quarter, a higher share than they held at any time before the pandemic, by Redfin’s count.
That share seems likely to rise again. Builders with unsold homes due to widespread cancellations by traditional buyers have been looking to sell in bulk to rental landlords.
Meanwhile, some institutional investors are now readying large funds to snap up homes. J.P. Morgan’s asset-management business said this month it had formed a joint venture with rental landlord Haven Realty Capital to purchase and develop $1 billion in houses. A unit of real-estate firm JLL’s LaSalle Investment Management, in partnership with the landlord Amherst Group, said it plans to buy $500 million of homes over the next two years.
Tricon has nearly $3 billion it plans to tap to buy and build homes. “We will lean in and deploy that capital when the time is right,” Tricon’s Chief Executive Gary Berman said on a November earnings call.
While a recession could bring down borrowing rates, it would likely be accompanied by higher unemployment, making it difficult for traditional buyers to take advantage, said Daryl Fairweather, Redfin’s chief economist. For investors, however, that could offer an opportunity to acquire homes at favourable prices.
“An investor may have more resources to jump in at exactly the moment when rates decline,” Ms. Fairweather said.
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