Europe’s Gas-Guzzling Days Are Fading

Last year’s hottest gas market has cooled, and some of the change will stick.

Demand for natural gas in Europe hasn’t bounced back despite lower prices. The region’s TTF benchmark price is down 85% compared with a year ago, when Europe was rushing to fill its gas-storage facilities for winter after Russia cut off supply.

Prices have fallen partly because Europe’s gas storage is already full. It hit a 90% capacity target last week, more than two months ahead of a schedule set last year by the European Union.

But underlying demand is also weak. According to think tank Bruegel’s European natural gas demand tracker, use of gas in the first quarter of this year was 18% lower than the 2019-2021 average, and 19% below in the second quarter. The declines have accelerated from the 12% fall recorded last year.

Weaker economic growth is one reason why gas use hasn’t recovered. Another may be that lower wholesale prices haven’t been passed on to end users yet, according to Ben McWilliams, author of the Bruegel tracker.

Other factors will be more permanent, notably new technologies. The European Heat Pump Association said sales of heat pumps rose 39% in 2022. They are now installed in 16% of Europe’s residential and commercial buildings, often replacing gas boilers. Heat pumps require electricity, which is often produced using gas, but this too is changing. Installations of new solar capacity rose a record 47% in 2022, and last year was the first time that renewable power generated more of Europe’s electricity than natural gas.

One uncertainty for future gas demand is whether European industries such as chemicals and fertiliser manufacturing will return to normal. The International Energy Agency thinks that up to half of the decline in Europe’s industrial gas demand last year was a result of production shutdowns. Certain companies whose business model traditionally relied on cheap Russian gas moved manufacturing to lower-cost regions such as the U.S., where gas costs roughly a quarter of the European spot price.

European gas prices will be volatile until more global liquefied natural gas supply arrives in 2025. The TTF jumped 5% on Monday because of worries about strikes at an Australian LNG terminal. Companies may be reluctant to restart their European factories until the region’s energy costs are more predictable.

Before the Ukraine war, global demand for natural gas was expected to increase 18% between 2021 and 2030, according to estimates from the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies. This forecast has since been cut to 10%. Lower growth expectations reflect the sharp cutbacks in Europe as well as the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act, which will supercharge America’s shift to renewable energy.

None of this is ideal for the U.S. LNG players who are currently pouring billions of dollars into new production. Based on projects that have already secured funding, and those in the pipeline, U.S. LNG export capacity could double by the end of this decade, according to Wood Mackenzie estimates.

True, Europe needs plenty of LNG over the next few years to replace the shortfall left by Russian pipeline gas. But the faster the region weans itself off gas, the sooner exporters will need to find a new home for at least some of their cargoes.

The expectation is that countries still using a lot of coal in power generation, such as India and Pakistan, will eventually switch to natural gas to cut their carbon emissions—assuming prices come down enough to make that transition affordable. “The window of opportunity for natural gas is tightening all around the world, although coal-reliant markets in Asia provide growth prospects over the medium-term,” says Gergely Molnar, energy analyst at IEA.

Buyers and sellers of natural gas took very different lessons from last year’s record prices, and the fuel’s reputation as a cheap, reliable form of energy took a hit. The pace of change in Europe’s gas market raises the risk of a glut.

A collection of only 18 full-floor and two-storey residences has launched on one of the Gold Coast’s most tightly held stretches of beachfront.

AMALI will rise 22 levels at 3535–3537 Main Beach Parade, occupying an 810sqm site with no road separating the building from the sand.

Prices begin at $10.2 million for the three-bedroom full-floor residences, while the development’s two-storey penthouses are being offered from $25 million. Completion is anticipated in early 2029.

The project has received development approval and is being delivered by Eastment Group of Companies, the developer behind the nearby AMANI Main Beach. Core Property Partners is overseeing project strategy, development and construction management.

Bayden Goddard’s BGD Architects has designed the tower, with interiors by multidisciplinary studio Tom Mark Henry and landscaping by Arcadia Landscape Architecture. Kollosche New Projects is handling sales and marketing.

Eighteen residences across 22 levels

Rather than maximising the number of apartments on the beachfront parcel, AMALI has been designed around privacy, space and a low resident population.

The tower will contain 16 full-floor residences and two two-level penthouses. Each home will have uninterrupted views over the Pacific Ocean and private lift access, giving residents an arrival experience more closely associated with a standalone house.

The standard full-floor residences will provide approximately 378sqm of space, with three bedrooms, three bathrooms and parking for two cars. Prices start at $10.2 million.

With only one residence occupying each typical level, the floor plans have been designed to capture natural light, ocean breezes and views in several directions. Generous living spaces will transition into outdoor areas overlooking the beach, creating a direct visual relationship with the coastline.

The two penthouses will extend across two levels and offer approximately 898sqm, with four bedrooms, five bathrooms and four parking spaces each.

Priced from $25 million, each penthouse will also have access to a private rooftop domain incorporating an entertaining lounge, bar, kitchen, terrace and swimming pool. From this elevated position, views will extend across both the ocean and the Gold Coast skyline.

Architecture informed by the coastline

AMALI’s architecture has been conceived as a restrained response to its beachfront setting.

The 22-storey form uses curved edges and layered horizontal elements to soften the tower’s profile, while extensive glazing opens the residences towards the ocean.

Inside, Tom Mark Henry has developed a palette based on the colours and textures of the coast. Natural stone and warm timber veneers will be combined with bronze and brushed-brass detailing, bespoke materials and sculptural lighting.

The approach is intended to create homes that are highly finished without feeling overly formal. Earthy tones and tactile materials will provide warmth, while expansive glazing and open living areas keep the ocean as the primary visual feature.

Private lift access, large floor plates and the absence of shared residential corridors on the typical levels reinforce the project’s emphasis on discretion.

Wellness on the beachfront

Residents will have access to a dedicated wellness precinct anchored by a heated infinity-edge pool overlooking the beach.

The facilities will also include a fully equipped gym, steam room and hot and cold plunge pools, combining exercise and recovery spaces within the building.

Direct beachfront access will allow residents to move from the development to the sand without crossing Main Beach Parade—one of the project’s defining points of difference.

The design positions these shared amenities as an extension of the beachfront lifestyle rather than a separate resort-style podium. With only 18 households using them, the spaces are also expected to offer a greater degree of privacy than facilities in larger apartment towers.

A tightly held Main Beach position

AMALI’s site is within walking distance of the Tedder Avenue dining and retail precinct and a short drive from Marina Mirage, Southport Yacht Club and the broader Main Beach marina district.

The location also places it near a growing cluster of luxury hotel, residential and lifestyle projects reshaping the northern end of the central Gold Coast.

Main Beach has become an increasingly important prestige-apartment market, supported by its relative scarcity of absolute beachfront development sites and proximity to both the ocean and Broadwater.

AMALI enters that market at its highest end. Its $10.2 million entry price positions even the standard residences firmly within the trophy-apartment category, while the two penthouses will compete with the most expensive new residences being offered on the Gold Coast.

The development follows AMANI, another boutique Main Beach project involving Eastment Group, BGD Architects and Core Property Partners. That continuity has allowed the team to carry a similar focus on large residences and limited apartment numbers into an absolute beachfront setting.

Sales are being led by Michael Kollosche and Harry Kakavas of Kollosche New Projects, with private presentations available through the project’s Broadbeach display suite.

With development approval secured and completion targeted for early 2029, AMALI’s launch adds just 18 buying opportunities to a beachfront market where scarcity is part of the proposition.

Its combination of full-floor living, private lift access and direct connection to the sand places the project somewhere between a luxury apartment tower and a collection of elevated beachfront houses—an increasingly sought-after model at the top of the Gold Coast market.

Europe’s Gas-Guzzling Days Are Fading

In a reality check for natural-gas producers, volatile prices are prompting European homes and factories to go green faster than expected