Europe’s Gas-Guzzling Days Are Fading

Last year’s hottest gas market has cooled, and some of the change will stick.

Demand for natural gas in Europe hasn’t bounced back despite lower prices. The region’s TTF benchmark price is down 85% compared with a year ago, when Europe was rushing to fill its gas-storage facilities for winter after Russia cut off supply.

Prices have fallen partly because Europe’s gas storage is already full. It hit a 90% capacity target last week, more than two months ahead of a schedule set last year by the European Union.

But underlying demand is also weak. According to think tank Bruegel’s European natural gas demand tracker, use of gas in the first quarter of this year was 18% lower than the 2019-2021 average, and 19% below in the second quarter. The declines have accelerated from the 12% fall recorded last year.

Weaker economic growth is one reason why gas use hasn’t recovered. Another may be that lower wholesale prices haven’t been passed on to end users yet, according to Ben McWilliams, author of the Bruegel tracker.

Other factors will be more permanent, notably new technologies. The European Heat Pump Association said sales of heat pumps rose 39% in 2022. They are now installed in 16% of Europe’s residential and commercial buildings, often replacing gas boilers. Heat pumps require electricity, which is often produced using gas, but this too is changing. Installations of new solar capacity rose a record 47% in 2022, and last year was the first time that renewable power generated more of Europe’s electricity than natural gas.

One uncertainty for future gas demand is whether European industries such as chemicals and fertiliser manufacturing will return to normal. The International Energy Agency thinks that up to half of the decline in Europe’s industrial gas demand last year was a result of production shutdowns. Certain companies whose business model traditionally relied on cheap Russian gas moved manufacturing to lower-cost regions such as the U.S., where gas costs roughly a quarter of the European spot price.

European gas prices will be volatile until more global liquefied natural gas supply arrives in 2025. The TTF jumped 5% on Monday because of worries about strikes at an Australian LNG terminal. Companies may be reluctant to restart their European factories until the region’s energy costs are more predictable.

Before the Ukraine war, global demand for natural gas was expected to increase 18% between 2021 and 2030, according to estimates from the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies. This forecast has since been cut to 10%. Lower growth expectations reflect the sharp cutbacks in Europe as well as the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act, which will supercharge America’s shift to renewable energy.

None of this is ideal for the U.S. LNG players who are currently pouring billions of dollars into new production. Based on projects that have already secured funding, and those in the pipeline, U.S. LNG export capacity could double by the end of this decade, according to Wood Mackenzie estimates.

True, Europe needs plenty of LNG over the next few years to replace the shortfall left by Russian pipeline gas. But the faster the region weans itself off gas, the sooner exporters will need to find a new home for at least some of their cargoes.

The expectation is that countries still using a lot of coal in power generation, such as India and Pakistan, will eventually switch to natural gas to cut their carbon emissions—assuming prices come down enough to make that transition affordable. “The window of opportunity for natural gas is tightening all around the world, although coal-reliant markets in Asia provide growth prospects over the medium-term,” says Gergely Molnar, energy analyst at IEA.

Buyers and sellers of natural gas took very different lessons from last year’s record prices, and the fuel’s reputation as a cheap, reliable form of energy took a hit. The pace of change in Europe’s gas market raises the risk of a glut.

From Scotch whisky and luxury retreats to fashion collaborations and world-class hospitality, Ross Blainey has spent years shaping high-end experiences around one idea: modern luxury is no longer just about what you own.

It is about access, connection and moments money alone cannot buy.

As Citizen Kanebridge continues to grow as one of Australia’s most sought-after private members’ clubs, Blainey, the club’s new Head of Membership, says the future lies in creating experiences members cannot find anywhere else.

“The ultimate memorable experiences are the money can’t buy moments,” Blainey said.

“The things that you can’t just put together anytime or any place. They make up something that is greater than the sum of its parts.”

On June 4, Blainey will bring that philosophy to life when he hosts an exclusive whisky evening for Citizen Kanebridge members at Sydney’s Royal Automobile Club of Australia.

Titled A Journey Through Whisky, the intimate event will see Blainey guide members through a curated selection of rare and unreleased whiskies drawn from his personal archive, alongside stories gathered across years working at the highest levels of the Scotch whisky world.

The evening will also include reflections on Blainey’s induction as a Keeper of the Quaich at Blair Castle in Scotland last year, one of the whisky industry’s rarest global honours.

A career built around experience

Before joining Citizen Kanebridge, Blainey built a career spanning luxury hospitality, Scotch whisky, premium lifestyle brands and experiential events.

But he says one industry above all others shaped the way he thinks about people and community: Scotch whisky.

“At its core, at its heart and throughout its whole history, Scotch has been about sharing, enjoyment, telling stories, meeting people and generally having a good time,” he said.

“Whisky can be that shared moment of laughter, and it can also be a shared moment of just slowing down, taking stock and contemplating. These are so key to building community.”

Blainey’s deep involvement in the whisky world culminated in 2025 when he was inducted as a Keeper of the Quaich at Blair Castle, a recognition is reserved for a select group of individuals who have made an outstanding contribution to Scotch whisky internationally.

“I was inducted last year, 2025, an incredible honour,” he said.

“There were a couple of teary-eyed moments as I stood in Blair Castle, on historic ground, realising that this was a moment I would remember forever.”

The next chapter for Citizen Kanebridge

Looking ahead, Blainey says Citizen Kanebridge will continue to focus on highly curated experiences, exclusive access, and bringing together like-minded members from Australia’s property, finance, and investment sectors.

“Our baseline of Car of the Year is already one of the most impressive events on the social calendar of Australia,” he said.

“My job is to find a way of raising the bar, taking things to the absolute top level for access, experiences and events.”

Blainey said the long-term goal was not simply to create another networking group or luxury club, but to build a community centred around meaningful relationships and unforgettable experiences.

“We provide the access, the money can’t buy memories, and we will be making those happen regularly,” he said.

“If we start with how amazing Car of the Year is and the only way is up, we are going to have some mind-blowing moments for our members.”

Hospitality at its absolute best

Another major influence on Blainey’s thinking came through his connection with world-famous New York restaurant Eleven Madison Park, once named the best restaurant in the world.

He says two concepts from the restaurant’s owners still shape the way he approaches luxury experiences today: “enlightened hospitality” and “unreasonable hospitality”.

“Enlightened hospitality is a way of doing business that looks at not just the product of what you serve, but how it makes people feel,” Blainey said.

“Unreasonable hospitality is more about striving for the absolute best all the time. If you’re going to do something, do it to an unreasonable level that blows everything else out of the water.”

It is a philosophy, he says, which aligns closely with where Citizen Kanebridge is heading next.

“That’s what we’re doing here with CK, taking members’ experiences to another level,” he said.

Fashion, whisky and creative collaborations

Blainey’s career has also included working with Glenfiddich as a Creative Collaborations Lead, where his role centred on bringing luxury experiences and partnerships to life through designers, chefs, artists and bartenders.

Among the projects were runway collaborations with leading Australian fashion designers, with pieces from the partnerships now housed inside Sydney’s Powerhouse Museum.

“My job was to find a creative way of bringing the brand to life,” he said.

“How do we make something that none of us could make on our own? Searching for the things that will resonate with people.”

What luxury consumers want now

Beyond whisky and events, Blainey also played a key role in building Blackbird Byron, the boutique Byron Bay hinterland retreat later recognised in Tatler’s Top 101 Hotels list.

The property, known for its dramatic views, minimalist architecture, and secluded atmosphere, helped shape his understanding of how luxury consumers are changing.

“I think I learned that people looking for luxury in hotels want memorable moments, considered design and the ability to get away from the hustle and bustle of modern life,” he said.

“To feel at home without being at home is important.”

More broadly, he believes today’s luxury consumers are increasingly driven by authenticity and emotional connection.

“For luxury consumers overall, I think it comes down to craft, story and connection,” he said.

“The product itself has to be impeccable, the story behind it builds your reason for looking at it, and then you need to make a genuine connection with people.”

Interested in becoming a member of Citizen Kanebridge? You can contact Ross here.