Foreign investment tumbles in Australian residential real estate
China was the largest source of approved residential real estate investment in the past quarter
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The number of approvals for foreign purchases of residential property fell in the first quarter of FY24, according to the latest statistics released by the Foreign Investment Review Board (FIRB). China remains our biggest source of residential investment, followed by India and Hong Kong.
The FIRB approved 1,374 applications from foreign residents to buy residential real estate between 1 July and 30 September 2023 (1Q FY24). This represented $1.5 billion in investment. This is significantly lower than the previous quarter and is tracking well below the rate of investment in 2023. Between 1 April and 30 June 2023 (4Q FY23), the FIRB approved 1,932 applications worth $2.4 billion. For the full financial year of 2023, 6,576 proposals were approved, thereby averaging 1,644 per quarter.
In 1Q FY24, China was the largest source of approved residential real estate investment with 523 approvals worth $700 million. Making up the top three were India with 148 approvals worth $100 million, and Hong Kong with 111 approvals also worth $100 million.
The fall comes amid the Federal Treasurer Jim Chalmers introducing legislation into the Parliament earlier this month to significantly raise foreign investment application fees, as per his announcement in the Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook. Currently, foreign investment application fees start at $14,100 for purchases of residential property worth $1 million or less, and rise to a maximum of $1,119,100 for acquisitions worth more than $40 million.
The Albanese Government wants to triple the fees for the purchase of established homes, which foreigners are allowed to buy if they are living in Australia to work or study, and must sell when they leave. Dr Chalmers explained that the government hopes this will encourage foreigners to buy new property instead. “This will help create additional housing stock, jobs in the construction industry and support economic growth,” he said.
The government also wants to double the vacancy fee charged to foreign owners whose properties are not genuinely occupied as a residence either by themselves or a relative, and are not rented out on a lease term of more than 30 days for at least six months of the year. The vacancy fee is the same as the applicable application fee in each case, hence $14,100 on properties purchased for $1 million or less.
On Census night 2021, more than one million homes in Australia were unoccupied, which created fierce national debate about home ownership affordability and rental supply for Australians. “The increased vacancy fees will encourage foreign investors to make their unused properties available to renters,” Dr Chalmers said. The government is also proposing a reduction in application fees for build-to-rent projects to encourage more foreign investment in this emerging real estate sector.
“Higher fees for the purchase of established homes and increased penalties for those that leave properties vacant will help ensure foreign investment in residential property is in our national interest,” Dr Chalmers said.
FIRB application fees were first introduced in 2015. They are indexed to annual inflation but have been increased markedly several times by governments in response to public discourse over the impact of foreign investment on rising property prices. Real estate industry insiders say rising fees are dissuading some foreign nationals from investing here.
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This may be contributing to continually rising weekly rents
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There has been a substantial increase in the number of Australians earning high incomes who are renting their homes instead of owning them, and this may be another element contributing to higher market demand and continually rising rents, according to new research.
The portion of households with an annual income of $140,000 per year (in 2021 dollars), went from 8 percent of the private rental market in 1996 to 24 percent in 2021, according to research by the Australian Housing and Urban Research Institute (AHURI). The AHURI study highlights that longer-term declines in the rate of home ownership in Australia are likely the cause of this trend.
The biggest challenge this creates is the flow-on effect on lower-income households because they may face stronger competition for a limited supply of rental stock, and they also have less capacity to cope with rising rents that look likely to keep going up due to the entrenched undersupply.
The 2024 ANZ CoreLogic Housing Affordability Report notes that weekly rents have been rising strongly since the pandemic and are currently re-accelerating. “Nationally, annual rent growth has lifted from a recent low of 8.1 percent year-on-year in October 2023, to 8.6 percent year-on-year in March 2024,” according to the report. “The re-acceleration was particularly evident in house rents, where annual growth bottomed out at 6.8 percent in the year to September, and rose to 8.4 percent in the year to March 2024.”
Rents are also rising in markets that have experienced recent declines. “In Hobart, rent values saw a downturn of -6 percent between March and October 2023. Since bottoming out in October, rents have now moved 5 percent higher to the end of March, and are just 1 percent off the record highs in March 2023. The Canberra rental market was the only other capital city to see a decline in rents in recent years, where rent values fell -3.8 percent between June 2022 and September 2023. Since then, Canberra rents have risen 3.5 percent, and are 1 percent from the record high.”
The Productivity Commission’s review of the National Housing and Homelessness Agreement points out that high-income earners also have more capacity to relocate to cheaper markets when rents rise, which creates more competition for lower-income households competing for homes in those same areas.
ANZ CoreLogic notes that rents in lower-cost markets have risen the most in recent years, so much so that the portion of earnings that lower-income households have to dedicate to rent has reached a record high 54.3 percent. For middle-income households, it’s 32.2 percent and for high-income households, it’s just 22.9 percent. ‘Housing stress’ has long been defined as requiring more than 30 percent of income to put a roof over your head.
While some high-income households may aspire to own their own homes, rising property values have made that a difficult and long process given the years it takes to save a deposit. ANZ CoreLogic data shows it now takes a median 10.1 years in the capital cities and 9.9 years in regional areas to save a 20 percent deposit to buy a property.
It also takes 48.3 percent of income in the cities and 47.1 percent in the regions to cover mortgage repayments at today’s home loan interest rates, which is far greater than the portion of income required to service rents at a median 30.4 percent in cities and 33.3 percent in the regions.
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