Global House Prices Rising at Fastest Pace in 15 Years
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Global House Prices Rising at Fastest Pace in 15 Years

13 countries and territories registered double-digit growth in the first quarter.

By Fang Block
Thu, Jun 3, 2021 1:19pmGrey Clock 2 min

A boom in housing demand during the global pandemic has driven price growth to a 15-year high, according to a report released Wednesday.

The Knight Frank’s Global House Price Index, measuring average home prices across 56 countries and territories, rose 7.3% year over year in the first quarter, the fastest pace since the fourth quarter of 2006.

“A contributory factor to rising house prices globally has been the mass reassessment of housing needs in the wake of the pandemic, whether that’s been buyers seeking home offices, gardens or just to be closer to wide-open spaces,” Kate Everett-Allen, head of international residential research at Knight Frank, told Mansion Global.

“The demands on the home have increased in lockdowns and homeowners have reflected on where and how they want to live, prompting many to relocate or purchase a second home,” she added.

With a 32% year-over-year price increase, Turkey led the rankings for the fifth consecutive quarter. However, stripping out inflation, real house prices rose around 16% annually in the country.

“Turkey’s somewhat of a red herring,” Ms. Everett-Allen said. “Sales declined in 2020 but prices increased due to inflation and the weak Turkish lira. Construction costs are also rising due to tight supply chains.”

A total of 13 countries, primarily developed nations, registered double-digit annual price growth. Those include New Zealand (22%), the U.S. (13%), Sweden (13%), Austria (12%), Canada (10.8%) and the U.K. (10.2%).

“Homeowners in these developed nations have also seen some of the largest rates of accrued savings. For some, this may mean they now have a deposit for their first home, or enable existing homeowners to upgrade,” Ms. Everett-Allen said.

For example, the Bank of England estimates that U.K. householders have amassed some £250 billion (US$354 billion) in savings since the start of the pandemic, she said.

Wary of potential housing bubbles, some countries have adopted market-cooling measures to curb the rapid price growth since January. China, New Zealand and Ireland introduced higher stamp duties for investment properties.

China is also considering a national vacancy tax or property tax, as is Canada.

Home prices in China, excluding Hong Kong, rose 4.3% year over year in the first quarter, while Ireland home prices increased 3.7% during the same period.

However, not all countries experienced a housing boom in the first quarter. Four countries saw their housing prices drop from a year ago, including Malaysia (-0.9%), Morocco (-1.2%), India (-1.6%) and Spain (-1.8%), according to the report.

Reprinted by permission of Mansion Global. Copyright 2021 Dow Jones & Company. Inc. All Rights Reserved Worldwide. Original date of publication: June 2, 2021

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Investor buying of homes tumbled 30% in the third quarter, a sign that the rise in borrowing rates and high home prices that pushed traditional buyers to the sidelines are causing these firms to pull back, too.

Companies bought around 66,000 homes in the 40 markets tracked by real-estate brokerage Redfin during the third quarter, compared with 94,000 homes during the same quarter a year ago. The percentage decline in investor purchases was the largest in a quarter since the subprime crisis, save for the second quarter of 2020 when the pandemic shut down most home buying.

The investor pullback represents a turnaround from months ago when their purchases were still rising fast. These firms bought homes in record numbers last year and earlier this year, helping to supercharge the housing market.

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These firms have seized on a pandemic-driven rise in demand for houses in suburban areas. These owners rented out the homes and increased rents on homes by double-digit percentages. By the first quarter of 2022, investors accounted for one in every five home purchases nationally.

But ballooning borrowing costs have kept investors from buying as much recently, said John Pawlowski, an analyst at Green Street. Buyers and sellers are also agreeing less often on pricing, stifling sales.

“It leads to a lot of people just putting down the pen,” Mr. Pawlowski said.

Rent growth has also begun to slow. Rents for single-family homes rose 10.1% year over year in September, down from 13.9% in April, according to housing data firm CoreLogic.

That rate of growth is still very high by historical standards, however, and much stronger than in the apartment market. Multifamily rent increases are now much lower by most measures. Near record-high rental prices are failing to attract as many new tenants, and demand in the third quarter fell to its lowest level in 13 years.

Demand for rental houses has held up better, in part because many of these homes are leased to relatively high-earning people who have found the for-sale market too expensive to buy, some analysts say.

That rent growth for single-family owners hasn’t translated into stock-market gains this year. Investors have lumped these owners in with home builders and sold many of them. Shares for the three largest publicly traded owners, Invitation Homes, American Homes 4 Rent and Tricon Residential, are each down more than 25% year to date, underperforming the S&P 500 over that period.

Rental landlords also face headwinds from rising property tax assessments that have come alongside enormous increases in home-price appreciation.

At the same time, large rental landlords are coming under greater scrutiny from federal and local governments. Congressional Democrats have hosted a series of hearings focused on eviction practices and rent increases. Three Congress members from California this month introduced a bill called the “Stop Wall Street Landlords Act,” which proposes levying new taxes on single-family landlords. It would prevent government-sponsored enterprises like Freddie Mac from acquiring and securitising their debt.

Many of the places where investors have eased purchasing are the same cities where they had counted for an outsize share of total sales. That includes Las Vegas and Phoenix, where investor sales dropped more than 44% in the third quarter compared with a year ago.

Fewer purchases by online house-flippers, or iBuyers, may have contributed to those declines, according to Redfin. Redfin decided to close its own home-flipping business, RedfinNow, earlier this month.

Nationally, investors still accounted for 17.5% of all home sales in the third quarter, a higher share than they held at any time before the pandemic, by Redfin’s count.

That share seems likely to rise again. Builders with unsold homes due to widespread cancellations by traditional buyers have been looking to sell in bulk to rental landlords.

Meanwhile, some institutional investors are now readying large funds to snap up homes. J.P. Morgan’s asset-management business said this month it had formed a joint venture with rental landlord Haven Realty Capital to purchase and develop $1 billion in houses. A unit of real-estate firm JLL’s LaSalle Investment Management, in partnership with the landlord Amherst Group, said it plans to buy $500 million of homes over the next two years.

Tricon has nearly $3 billion it plans to tap to buy and build homes. “We will lean in and deploy that capital when the time is right,” Tricon’s Chief Executive Gary Berman said on a November earnings call.

While a recession could bring down borrowing rates, it would likely be accompanied by higher unemployment, making it difficult for traditional buyers to take advantage, said Daryl Fairweather, Redfin’s chief economist. For investors, however, that could offer an opportunity to acquire homes at favourable prices.

“An investor may have more resources to jump in at exactly the moment when rates decline,” Ms. Fairweather said.

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