House Prices To Slow Before Falling: ANZ

House price growth is expected to peak before the end of 2021 before moderating to 6% nationally in 2022 and falling by 4% in 2023, according to the ANZ.

Nationally, the housing boom of 2021 is expected to lift prices to above 21% by the end of the year. Sydney will reach a peak of 27% — the strongest growth since the late-1980s boom.

However, according to the ANZ’s senior economists Felicity Emmett and Adelaide Timbrell a slowdown is in sight.

“With tighter credit, rising fixed mortgage rates and a large increase in stock on the market combined with decreased affordability all set to dampen price growth in 2022,” they wrote in the latest housing market research.

Capital city prices overall are expected to lift by a further 6% in 2022 as the post-pandemic boom eases.

According to the ANZ’s outlook, the strongest gains will be made in Brisbane (9%), Hobart (8%) and Melbourne (7%). Sydney’s long and steep surge will flatten to 6% next year.

“While affordability constraints and a better supply-demand balance will help slow the market, the path of interest rates will be critical to developments in the housing sector,” the ANZ team wrote.

The ANZ analysts expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to leave the cash rate on hold – it is currently at 0.1 per cent – until the first half of 2023.

By the end of 2023 the forecast prices nationally are expected to have fallen by 4%. Sydney is expected to feel a 4% drop while Melbourne, 2%.

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Raine and Horne Double Bay

House Prices To Slow Before Falling: ANZ

The bank is forecasting housing growth to ease in the next two years.

This renovated Hampton-style home offers luxury living and seamless indoor-outdoor entertaining in a prime coastal location.