House Prices To Slow Before Falling: ANZ
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House Prices To Slow Before Falling: ANZ

The bank is forecasting housing growth to ease in the next two years.

By Kanebridge News
Thu, Nov 18, 2021 4:28pmGrey Clock < 1 min

House price growth is expected to peak before the end of 2021 before moderating to 6% nationally in 2022 and falling by 4% in 2023, according to the ANZ.

Nationally, the housing boom of 2021 is expected to lift prices to above 21% by the end of the year. Sydney will reach a peak of 27% — the strongest growth since the late-1980s boom.

However, according to the ANZ’s senior economists Felicity Emmett and Adelaide Timbrell a slowdown is in sight.

“With tighter credit, rising fixed mortgage rates and a large increase in stock on the market combined with decreased affordability all set to dampen price growth in 2022,” they wrote in the latest housing market research.

Capital city prices overall are expected to lift by a further 6% in 2022 as the post-pandemic boom eases.

According to the ANZ’s outlook, the strongest gains will be made in Brisbane (9%), Hobart (8%) and Melbourne (7%). Sydney’s long and steep surge will flatten to 6% next year.

“While affordability constraints and a better supply-demand balance will help slow the market, the path of interest rates will be critical to developments in the housing sector,” the ANZ team wrote.

The ANZ analysts expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to leave the cash rate on hold – it is currently at 0.1 per cent – until the first half of 2023.

By the end of 2023 the forecast prices nationally are expected to have fallen by 4%. Sydney is expected to feel a 4% drop while Melbourne, 2%.



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London’s Luxury Property Market Turns a Corner

After more than a year, prices have finally levelled out in prime central London, while outer London saw a small uptick in high-end prices from the previous quarter

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The first quarter of the year brought some long-awaited signs of recovery in London’s luxury housing market, offering the first positive quarterly price growth since September 2022, according to a report from Savills on Wednesday.

After six consecutive quarterly price falls, luxury home prices in central London levelled out in the first three months of the year, with a 0.1% quarterly uptick in prices. The £3 million to £5 million (US$3.79 million to US$6.32 million) market saw a slightly larger increase of 0.3%.

Outer London’s luxury market saw greater quarterly price growth, with home prices up 0.8%, as some stability returned to mortgage costs and lured more buyers back to the market, according to the report.

All of this is evidence that the market is “in early stages of recovery,” according to Lucian Cook, head of residential research at Savills.

“The outlook for the housing market has certainly improved, partly because the mortgage market has recovered more quickly than expected,” Cook said in the report. “With the first rate cut rapidly coming into view and recessionary risks easing, greater stability has returned to the cost of mortgage debt, which has positively impacted domestic prime markets, where many buyers rely on borrowing, most notably in leafy outer prime South and West London, as well as the commuter belt.”

Outside of London, prices across the U.K. saw no quarterly growth heading into the beginning of the spring market, which is expected to bring higher levels of buyer activity in many regions.

Suburban regions saw prices dip just 0.1%, while urban areas—like Edinburgh and Glasgow in Scotland, and Bath and Oxford in England—saw prices increase by 0.6%.

Cook said regional buyers are more likely to be concerned about market uncertainty than London buyers in the lead up to the general election.

“As a result, buyers are still expected to be less committed until the dust has settled,” he said.

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