Housing costs deter downsizing, changing jobs and having children

Housing costs, including a five–fold increase in stamp duty in just one generation, are dissuading Australians from rightsizing their homes at different stages of life, changing jobs and having children. A new report by economic research firm e61 Institute found a quarter of Australians under 40 years of age have delayed changing jobs and more than one in five aged 30 to 40 years have put off having children due to the costs of changing homes.

The research is based on a survey of 3,000 Australians conducted last year that asked them a series of questions on their attitudes toward housing. It also found that almost 25 percent of family homeowners aged 50 or older who own properties with more bedrooms than household occupiers are putting off downsizing specifically to avoid the transfer tax.

While the cost of moving encompasses many expenses, the research shows stamp duty is an outsized component that has increased considerably since the early-to-mid 1980s amid property prices rising exponentially. The typical stamp duty bill now equates to an average of five months’ worth of take-home pay.

In Sydney, a median-priced home demands $44,500 in stamp duty, which is a 5.4-fold increase in four decades. Stamp duty in Melbourne is $42,500, which is a 6.1-fold increase and the largest among the cities. In Brisbane, the median property purchase demands $25,900 in stamp duty from investors, which is a 5.5-fold increase. But current concessions for owner-occupiers in Queensland reduce this to $18,700.

The report notes that deterrents to moving hurt people’s wellbeing directly and indirectly.

“The direct costs are about being held back from a better-suited home — like closer to family, work, schools or other amenities, or a more appropriate amount of space,” the report states. “The indirect costs play out in the aggregate. Holding back people from changing jobs can weaken productivity, which can dampen wage growth and bolster inflation. And when people don’t downsize, scarce housing runs short.”

Abolishing stamp duty was the most popular option chosen by respondents when asked about their main priorities for state and territory housing policies.

Dr Nick Garvin, e61 Institute’s research manager, said: “Governments and policymakers must consider the unpopularity of stamp duty, and the indirect impacts stamp duty has on various other parts of the economy and people’s lives.”

OTTAWA–The nascent recovery in Canada’s housing market has become a casualty of the trade dispute with the U.S.

The latest national home-resale data are due out Tuesday, but early indications from several big regional real-estate boards suggest March was overall another down month as many prospective buyers exercised caution.

The recent weakness in home sales has dimmed the previously brighter outlook for the property market coming into 2025, when buyers were encouraged by the Bank of Canada’s aggressive interest-rate cuts.

“The chills the U.S. trade war has sent through participants in the housing market are getting frostier,” said Robert Hogue , assistant chief economist at Royal Bank of Canada.

Hogue said resales are down materially in a number of markets two months running, and home prices in several markets are coming under pressure as inventories rise. And although Canada was spared additional levies when President Trump unveiled so-called reciprocal tariffs on dozens of countries earlier this month, no meaningful rebound is likely so long as trade uncertainty lingers, he said.

Home buyers in Toronto, Canada’s most populous city and the country’s financial hub, aren’t turning up for the usual spring pickup in property-market activity.

Sales in the Greater Toronto Area slumped 23.1% in March from a year earlier, as new listings for the region jumped close to 29%, according to the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board. That marked the worst month of resales since 1998.

The board’s chief information officer, Jason Mercer , said many potential home buyers were likely taking a wait-and-see approach given the economic worries as well as a pending federal election. “Homebuyers need to feel their employment situation is solid before committing to monthly mortgage payments over the long term,” he said, adding that ownership has become more affordable and prices in the area fell about 3.8% year on year in March.

Uncertainty is also weighing on the housing market in Calgary, the biggest city in oil-rich Alberta. The city’s real-estate board said realtors reported a 19% drop in sales of existing homes from last year, with a similar trend of improving supply and a sharp increase in the average number of days that homes were on the market.

On the West Coast, home sales registered in the metro Vancouver area of British Columbia were the lowest for March since 2019, falling 13.4% on a year earlier and coming in close to 37% below the 10-year seasonal average, while active listings continued to rise.

There are some areas of resilience. The Quebec Professional Association of Real Estate Brokers said total sales in the province were up 9% year on year in March. Still, RBC’s Hogue estimated Montreal sales in March were down about 15% from December seasonally adjusted, effectively rolling back the advance since the end of last summer.

The most recent national data for the country, from the Canadian Real Estate Association, showed resales dropped 9.8% month over month in February, when homebuyers may also have been put off by harsh winter storms in parts of the country. That marked the sharpest fall since May 2022 and brought the level of sales to their lowest level since November 2023, snapping signs that activity had been picking up in recent months.

Rishi Sondhi , an economist at Toronto-Dominion Bank, in a recent report estimated the country was tracking toward a double-digit quarterly decline in Canadian home sales and a mid-single-digit drop in Canadian average home prices for the first three months of 2025. That is much weaker than a pre-Trump inauguration forecast made in December that projected a loosening in federal mortgage rules, lower interest rates and continued economic growth would fuel a modest gain in sales and prices.

Central-bank officials are set to decide Wednesday on monetary policy, but they have signaled a cautious approach to rates as they balance the prospect of tariffs stoking price pressures against the likelihood that they will dampen demand and weigh on the economy. That could mean the Bank of Canada will pause after seven straight cuts to its policy rate.

Housing is a hot topic for party leaders campaigning ahead of the April 28 election, with both the incumbent Liberal Party and opposition Conservatives proposing tax cuts and incentives to encourage buyers and builders.

The outlook for new homes has also dimmed with the tariff threat. The value of residential-building permits issued in February fell 2.9% from a month prior, adding to a retreat in January that took back some of the surge in intentions in the final month of last year, Statistics Canada data last week showed.

Housing costs deter downsizing, changing jobs and having children

The soaring cost of stamp duty is making more Australians think twice about major life decisions

Early indications from several big regional real-estate boards suggest March was overall another down month.