It’s One of America’s Most Expensive Cities, and Home Buyers Can’t Get Enough
A metro area on California’s central coast ranked No. 1 in the latest WSJ/Realtor.com Emerging Housing Markets Index
4 min
It’s an area already popular with the likes of Oprah Winfrey, Ellen DeGeneres, Prince Harry and Meghan Markle.
But now the affluent Santa Maria-Santa Barbara metropolitan area on the Central Coast of California nestled between the Santa Ynez Mountains and the Pacific Ocean has ranked as the top housing market in the latest Wall Street Journal/Realtor.com Emerging Housing Markets Index, released Wednesday.
It’s a surprise result for the quarterly index, which has, until now, typically seen more affordable cities rank at the top—Topeka, Kansas, took first place in the prior iteration of the report, released in fall, and Lafayette, Indiana, in the summer ranking.
“Santa Maria-Santa Barbara topping the list serves to highlight the division in today’s housing market,” said Danielle Hale, chief economist at Realtor.com. It’s the one and only West Coast market in the top 20, and, with a median listing price of $1.795 million in December, the highest-priced market by more than $1 million.
The top five cities in the index were rounded out by Jefferson City, Missouri, where the median listing price was $302,000 in December; the Canton-Massillon metro area in Ohio ($230,000); Racine, Wisconsin ($334,000); and the Oshkosh-Neenah metro area in Wisconsin ($295,000).
“Many housing markets cooled off after the pandemic’s run-up in prices and inventory-depleting demand,” Hale explained. “The markets that have continued to chug along, and even gain steam, are either priced low enough that buyers can compete, or priced high enough that the typical affordability constraints are not of concern to the market’s buyers.”
The latter is the scenario that’s playing out in Santa Barbara.
The index analyses key housing market data, as well as economic vitality and lifestyle metrics for the largest 300 metropolitan areas in the country to highlight emerging housing markets that offer a high quality of life and are expected to see future home price appreciation. It identifies markets that those considering a home purchase should add to their shortlist—whether the goal is to live in it or rent.
Santa Barbara “offers perhaps the finest lifestyle in the U.S.,” said local agent Luke Ebbin of The Ebbin Group at Compass. “Three-hundred days of sunshine and warm weather, a relaxed pace of living, proximity to uncrowded beaches, mountain hikes, fine food and wine, and incredible cultural offerings more often found in major metropolitan areas.”
However, with that median listing price of $1.79 million—more than four times the national median—the price tag attached to the idyllic locale is well out of range for many would-be buyers.
“Though Santa Barbara is among the highest-priced large housing markets in the U.S., buyers in the area have seen similar trends to buyers in other more affordable markets,” Hale said. “For-sale inventory fell rapidly during the early days of the pandemic, and has not recovered much as demand waned in the area and homeowners chose not to sell.”
As a result, “buyers hoping to snag a median-priced home are facing more competition, which has driven prices higher,” she said.
In December, 71% of homes on the market in the metro were priced at $1 million or higher, up from the same time in 2019, when the metric stood at 62%.
“Buyers who have been eager to purchase here and have been on the sidelines due to low inventory and high interest rates are entering the market as rates decline and more inventory becomes available,” Ebbin said. That “low inventory and high demand are keeping prices elevated.”
It should come as no surprise then that Santa Barbara boasts an affluent population who “are drawn to the area’s lifestyle, amenities and upscale housing options,” said Santa Barbara-based agent Jason Streatfeild of Douglas Elliman.
Santa Barbara has “long been a popular destination for retirees, especially those seeking a mild climate, beautiful scenery and a relaxed coastal lifestyle,” Streatfeild said, noting that many migrate from colder regions of the country, as well as from other parts of California.
Not only charmed by the balmy wealth, individuals from far and wide are equally wooed to the area by its thriving entrepreneurial community, and Santa Barbara’s “robust job market, including opportunities in technology, healthcare, finance and education, attracts professionals from various parts of the country,” Streatfeild said. “Some may relocate from major metropolitan areas like Los Angeles, San Francisco or New York in search of a more balanced and less crowded lifestyle.”
Indeed, out-of-towners appear to be driving demand in the coastal enclave, according to search data from Realtor.com. More than three-quarters (79.5%) of views to Santa Barbara home listings on the site came from outside of the metro in the fourth quarter, with a notable amount of attention coming from the Los Angeles (32.8%) area, according to the index. House hunters from Silicon Valley, Atlanta and New York City were also shopping in the area, according to Realtor.com data.
Meanwhile, Prince Harry and Megan Markle are prime examples that “Santa Barbara’s appeal extends beyond U.S. borders,” Streatfeild said.
The University of California, Santa Barbara, also attracts a global cohort—along with plenty of domestic new residents—who move to the area to pursue higher education.
The Santa Barbara metro area “attracted a sizeable 3.3% of its listing viewership from shoppers outside of the U.S.,” Hale said in the report. “Suggesting that international demand is applying pressure to already high prices.”
For comparison, “the average international viewership share across the 300 ranked markets was less than half (1.4%) the viewership share in Santa Barbara,” she added.
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New research shows a widening divide across Australia and New Zealand’s property markets, with investors increasingly forced to look beyond traditional strongholds to find real returns.
3 min
By any traditional measure, Australia’s property market should be moving in sync. Instead, it is fragmenting.
New research from MaxCap, led by Head of Research Bruce Wan, paints a picture of a market no longer defined by national trends, but by sharp regional divergence, where performance gaps between cities are widening, and the smartest capital is moving accordingly.
At the top end of the ladder, Perth and southeast Queensland are surging ahead. At the other, Melbourne and Auckland are only just beginning to recover from recent downturns. And sitting squarely in the middle is Sydney, steady but constrained.
The takeaway is clear: the era of relying on headline markets is over.
The rise of the unexpected leaders
Brisbane and the broader southeast Queensland region have emerged as standout performers, driven by population growth, infrastructure investment and a sustained undersupply of housing.
According to the report, housing values in the region have continued to accelerate, supported by long-term tailwinds including the 2032 Olympic Games and a decade of relatively subdued price growth prior.
Perth is telling a similar story, albeit for different reasons. Once heavily tied to commodity cycles, the Western Australian capital is now benefiting from a broader base of economic drivers, including defence spending and sustained resource sector strength.
The result is a housing market that remains one of the strongest in the country, even as price growth begins to ease from its peak.
Sydney holds, but doesn’t lead
For Sydney, the story is more nuanced.
While prices continue to climb and the city remains Australia’s most expensive market, affordability constraints are clearly limiting its pace. Residential growth, while positive, lags behind smaller capitals, and commercial sectors are being held back by softer demand in key industries.
There are, however, signs of momentum building. New infrastructure, including the western Sydney Airport and expanded rail networks, is expected to unlock development opportunities and support future growth, particularly in emerging precincts.
Still, the report positions Sydney firmly in the “middle of the pack”, no longer the automatic frontrunner for investors.
Melbourne’s slow reset
Melbourne, once a consistent performer, has spent recent years recalibrating.
Extended lockdowns, combined with new state property taxes, have weighed heavily on investor sentiment and pricing, particularly across the commercial office sector. Residential values have also underperformed, though for different structural reasons.
Now, there are early signs of recovery.
Improved affordability, population growth and a stabilising economic backdrop are beginning to draw buyers back into the market, with both residential and commercial sectors showing tentative signs of improvement.
Auckland’s turning point
Across the Tasman, Auckland has faced its own challenges, particularly from an outflow of younger workers to Australia, which has dampened demand and stalled price growth.
But here too, the tide appears to be shifting.
A return to positive migration, lower interest rates and policy changes — including the easing of foreign buyer restrictions — are expected to support a gradual recovery, alongside renewed interest from offshore capital.
A market that rewards precision
If there is one unifying theme, it is this: broad-brush strategies no longer work.
MaxCap’s research highlights that the most compelling opportunities are increasingly found outside the traditional powerhouses of Sydney and Melbourne, requiring investors to take a more targeted, locally informed approach.
“Given these persistent performance gaps, there is plentiful scope for alpha returns, just by picking the right locations and market segments,” the report notes.
In other words, success in this market is no longer about being in property — it is about being in the right property, in the right place, at the right time.
And increasingly, that place may not be where you expect.
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