Nation’s Experts Split On Cash Rate Rise
A survey of economists unsure of rate rise before the end of 2022.
2 min
While almost all 36 panellists surveyed in this month’s Finder RBA Cash Rate Survey (94%) expect a cash rate hold to be announced in February, the same sentiment is not held for the year ahead.
More than half (58%) are predicting a rise this year while just 1 in 5 of the experts panelled expect the rise to happen in the first half of the year.
Graham Cooke, head of consumer research at Finder, noted a shift in expectations of a rate rise in 2022.
“A rate rise this year has moved from an ‘impossibility’ to a ‘most likely’,” said Mr Cooke.
“With some lenders indicating multiple rises to come, Australian borrowers who purchased over the last few years of rock-bottom rates may be in for a shock when their mortgage costs start to climb.”
Many experts have cited the concern of inflation and the unemployment figures reaching the RBA’s target ahead of schedule as a reason to get moving.
Ben Udy, from Capital Economics thinks that the first rate hike will come in the middle part of the year.
“While the RBA has previously said that it would not raise rates until wage growth was at least 3%, we think the strength in underlying inflation along with the tight labour market will convince the Bank to hike rates first in August and lift rates to 1.25% by the end of 2023,” Udy said.
However, opposing Ben Udy, Saul Elake of Corinna Economic Advisory states three reasons we won’t see a rate rise this year.
“One, underlying inflation has only just entered the target band after more than 5 years below it, and remains lower than in most other advanced economies.
“Two, wage inflation is nowhere near the 3.5% the RBA has said it needs to be to be consistent with inflation being ‘sustainably’ within the target band.
“Three, the RBA has a looser inflation target than most other ‘advanced’ economy central banks,” Eslake said.
It begs the question, how much will average mortgages rise when rates do.
Almost all experts believe that rates have hit rock bottom (96%).
Graham Cooke’s advice is to lock in a loan at a very low rate.
“The days of sub-2% home loans are almost behind us, and may never return. If you are in a position to lock on a very low rate with your current lender, or by switching, there has never been a better time to do it,” Mr Cooke said.
Westpac is expecting the RBA to raise the cash rate 6 times in the next 2 years, starting in August this year.
This would bring the official cash rate up from 0.10% at present to 1.50% in 2 years’ time – a jump of 1.4% on what homeowners are paying now.
On a $500,000 home loan, a rate hike from 2.00% to 3.40% would cost homeowners $369 more per month or $4,428 more per year.
As tariffs bite, Sydney’s MAISON de SABRÉ is pushing deeper into the US, holding firm on pricing and proving that resilience in luxury means more than survival.
Early indications from several big regional real-estate boards suggest March was overall another down month.
The nearly 10,000-square-foot home stands right at the entrance to the Amazon billionaire’s grand, $165 million estate.
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A home that’s right at the entrance to Jeff Bezos’s Beverly HIlls estate, which the billionaire purchased for $165 million in 2020, is now on the market asking $19.8 million.
Shaded by mature olive trees, the three-story modern mansion on Angelo Drive spans nearly 10,000 square feet, and includes five bedrooms, a bar and lounge, a home cinema, a pool with floating benches, and a 15-car garage.
The modern home centers around a striking wood staircase that extends through all three floors, creating an eye-shaped spiral.
Other design choices include a full-height black marble fireplace, herringbone wood flooring, grayscale marble backsplashes in the kitchen and bathroom, banks of floor-to-ceiling windows and a seating area in the middle of the pool.
There is also an outdoor kitchen and eating area poolside, and a living space with sliding doors that open directly onto the pool deck, for indoor/outdoor living.
The home was built in 2021 and designed by Gabbay Architects for the owner, who purchased the underlying property for $4.1 million in 2015, according to property records accessed through PropertyShark.
The seller, who runs a Beverly Hills-based plastic surgery practice, could not immediately be reached for comment.
The Benedict Canyon house came to market Friday with Tomer Fridman of Christie’s International Real Estate. He could not immediately be reached for comment.
The Bezos estate is also known as the Warner Estate, named after its first owner, Hollywood mogul Jack Warner of the Warner Bros.
After Warner, the 9-acre estate was owned by music executive and film producer David Geffen, followed by Bezos. The property includes a palatial Gregorian Revival mansion built in 1939 and designed by architect Florence Yoch to befit the status of one of the most powerful men in Hollywood.
At $19.8 million, the new listing offers quite a deal compared to other properties neighbouring Bezos. In Florida, the owner of a vacant lot next door to the Amazon founder’s estate on Indian Creek Island is asking $150 million for it.
An intriguing new holiday home concept is emerging for high net worth Australians.
As tariffs bite, Sydney’s MAISON de SABRÉ is pushing deeper into the US, holding firm on pricing and proving that resilience in luxury means more than survival.
