Natural disasters are changing attitudes to long term property values
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Natural disasters are changing attitudes to long term property values

Australian property values usually rebound quickly after natural disasters, but not this time

By KANEBRIDGE NEWS
Thu, Mar 2, 2023 10:32amGrey Clock 2 min

Flooding is beginning to have long term effects on property values, a new report from CoreLogic reveals.

The East Coast Floods – One Year One report examined the impacts of the extreme weather events on the Richmond-Tweed area (also known as the Northern Rivers region) on the far north coast of NSW, as well as the Brisbane region in early 2022, which some described as a ‘rain bomb’.

The report, authored by Corelogic economist Kaytlin Ezzy, said while residential values were historically fairly resilient following flooding events, recovering within three to five years, the 2022 disaster had changed perceptions among homeowners and potential buyers.

“Attitudes towards flood-prone areas, and climate risk in general, are changing,” the report said. “Homeowners, lenders and insurers are becoming more cautious of the risks associated with climate change and are adjusting their risk premiums accordingly. For some impacted homeowners, the risk of another flood is likely to be top of mind, and we could see a number of residents accept government buy-back offers where they are available. 

“For others, the increased costs of insurance could price out existing owners and dissuade new buyers from areas vulnerable to flooding.”

The report noted that while the Insurance Council of Australia had closed 80 percent of claims from the events, which are estimated to have cost $5.7 billion – Australia’s most expensive natural disaster on record – that was only part of the story.

“A sizable number of people are still waiting for building repairs to start, while other uninsured residents have been left with limited resources to undertake repairs,” the report said. “Government intentions around buy backs are still playing out and the number of post flood home sales is still low. 

“The full impact of the floods won’t be known until these factors have played out.”

Using satellite imagery, CoreLogic has zeroed in on areas most affected by floods. Perhaps unsurprisingly, flood-prone areas such as South Lismore and North Lismore recorded flooding across 80.8 percent and 70.1 percent of properties respectively. The news was similarly grim in West Ballina, where 56 percent of properties were impacted.

However, areas considered low risk, such as Girards Hill (35.1 percent) and East Lismore (22.4 percent) were also heavily affected.

In the Byron Bay region, Mullumbimby experienced the highest numbers, with 17.4 percent of properties impacted by flooding.

The impact on values has been immediate, and not just in those areas directly affected by floods, CoreLogic data reveals.

“Mullumbimby recorded the largest 12-month decline nationally, down -30.1 percent, roughly equivalent to a $432,000 decline in the median value, followed by South Lismore (-27.0 percent), Ocean Shores (-26.8 percent) and Byron Bay (-25.4 percent). The other impacted suburbs saw values fall between -22 percent and -25 percent,” the report said. 

“Interestingly, a number of suburbs that were relatively unimpacted by flooding also recorded significant declines. Values across Bangalow, Lismore Heights and Suffolk Park fell by -28.4 percent, -25.7 percent, and -24.3 percent, respectively, and East Ballina and Alstonville recorded slightly smaller declines of -20.2 percent and -19.6 percent.” 

While it noted that reduced economic activity across the whole region was a likely contributing factor, the report said that the decline had been less in Lismore’s elevated suburbs of Goonellabah which recorded a milder -7.2 percent drop in values, as well as a number of surrounding farming communities where declines were less severe. 



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First time buyers determined to enter the Australian property market are taking creative approaches as interest rates steady

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Aspiring first home buyers are increasingly pooling their resources, adopting new strategies and making compromises to get themselves onto the property ladder, according to research from Westpac. About 56 percent of buyers surveyed are planning to buy their first property jointly with their partner compared to 40 percent three years ago. Three in four buyers say they are willing to compromise on location, up nine percent from three years ago, and 47 percent are willing to pay lenders mortgage insurance to buy their first home sooner.

Additionally, one in two first home hopefuls are considering ‘rentvesting’, whereby they purchase an investment property first ahead of a home for themselves. In this scenario, buyers typically continue renting in expensive lifestyle locations where they want to live and buy an investment property in more affordable locations, often on the outskirts of major cities or in regional areas.

The 2024 Westpac Home Ownership Report, released this month, is based on a survey of 2,015 Australians conducted in January. The report revealed increasing intentions to buy among all types of buyers, with 44 percent intending to buy in the next five years, up from 35 percent in July 2023. This may reflect expectations that interest rates have peaked, with the Reserve Bank keeping rates on hold since December.

Among first home buyers specifically, there was a slight decline in purchasing intention over the next five years, with 86 percent delaying buying a home due to cost-of-living pressures. The survey also found that more people are planning to buy an investment property, which is reflected in recent finance data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics showing a 20 percent increase in the value of investor loans issued over the past year. Additionally, more people are planning to upsize their homes or renovate their existing homes.

Westpac managing director of mortgages Damien MacRae said first home buyers “are becoming more ruthless with their goals”. “They understand it’s a big task, but they are determined to break into the market and are willing to compromise to get there,” Mr MacRae said.

Buyers still prefer houses, but there has been a five percent decline in this preference since 2021 and a seven percent increase for apartments. Preference for a townhouse, or house and land packages, has increased markedly. “Buyers are casting their expectations wider, willing to compromise on location and are forgoing everyday luxuries like food delivery. They are also more inclined to relocate and move to apartment living.”

The latest Westpac-Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment Index released this week shows the ‘time to buy a dwelling’ index rose 4.9 percent to 77.8 out of 100 this month, which is a 15-month high, but still relatively weak overall. Buyer sentiment is notably stronger in Victoria at 84.3, with Westpac senior economist Matthew Hassan pointing to softening home values over the past four months.

In contrast, the NSW index is at 73.3 out of 100, likely reflecting affordability challenges in Australia’s most expensive market. “Nearly 70 percent of consumers expect housing prices to continue rising in the year ahead,” Mr Hassan added.

 

MOST POPULAR
11 ACRES ROAD, KELLYVILLE, NSW

This stylish family home combines a classic palette and finishes with a flexible floorplan

35 North Street Windsor

Just 55 minutes from Sydney, make this your creative getaway located in the majestic Hawkesbury region.

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