The Australian capitals experiencing world-class price growth in luxury real estate
The latest wealth report reveals two Australian capitals posted above average results compared with the rest of the world
3 min
Luxury real estate in Perth and the Gold Coast delivered above-average price growth compared to the rest of the world in 2023, but this year Sydney and Melbourne are expected to outshine the other Australian capitals, according to Knight Frank’s newly released global research report, The Wealth Report 2024.
Knight Frank’s Prime International Residential Index (PIRI 100), which measures price growth among luxury homes in the top 5 percent of the market in 100 prime locations, found luxury residential property prices were surprisingly resilient in the turbulent global economy last year, rising by 3.1 percent on average.
This was down on the 5.2 percent average recorded in 2022 and 8.4 percent in 2021. However, given the rapid rise of interest rates during the world’s fight against inflation, Knight Frank analysts said the growth rate was “solid”, with 80 cities recording flat or positive annual price rises. The resilience was largely due to a lack of supply, which created more buyer competition for fewer homes on the market.
Leading the PIRI 100 for growth was Manila, up 26 percent, followed by Dubai at 16 percent, The Bahamas at 15 percent; and Algarve in Portugal and Cape Town in South Africa both at 12.3 percent. In Australia, Perth and the Gold Coast recorded price rises that were higher than the global average at 5.2 percent and 4.1 percent, placing them in 28th and equal 38th place among the 100 PIRI cities. Sydney ranked equal 49th with 2.7 percent growth, followed by Brisbane in 58th place with a 2.3 percent price rise. Melbourne was the laggard among Australian cities, ranking equal 63rd with growth of 1.4 percent.
Knight Frank global head of research, Liam Bailey, said wealthy people targeted luxury residential property in 2023 as their portfolios began to recover. Mr Bailey said 24 percent of the world’s ultra-high-net-worth individuals (UHNWIs), defined as having a net worth of US$30 million or more, were actively looking to buy last year. The report finds that demand will likely be similar in 2024.
Looking ahead, Knight Frank analysts have provided their 2024 forecasts for luxury residential house price growth in 25 of the world’s most in-demand markets. They predict an average growth rate of 2.5 percent for the group, up from 1.7 percent in 2023. They think Auckland will record the strongest growth at 10 percent, followed by Mumbai in India at 5.5 percent. Among Australian cities, Sydney will lead the way with 5 percent growth, followed by Melbourne with 3 percent. This would place both cities in the top 10 out of the 25 cities canvassed.
The analysts also predict that Sydney will experience the highest prestige property rental price growth in 2024 at 12 percent, far ahead of any other city in the world. The next strongest prestige rental markets are tipped to be Auckland and Toronto in Canada with 6 percent growth, London at 5.5 percent and New York at 5 percent.
The Wealth Report finds that lack of stock was a key driver of price growth for both sales and rental markets last year, and this will remain the case in 2024. For example, Sydney’s luxury home sales were down by 37 percent in 2023, with similar volume declines also seen in London, New York, Dubai, Singapore and Hong Kong.
Knight Frank Partner Erin van Tuil said: “Whilst volumes have dropped for Sydney’s prime residential market, values have not, demonstrating once again that Sydney remains a popular location to live and invest ... The fundamentals of the Sydney market, such as lifestyle, transparent government and taxes and the sheer beauty of living in the Harbour City are unlikely to change, and therefore Sydney’s popularity is likely set to remain. With only so many waterfront locations available … owning a slice of Sydney Harbour real estate remains a popular investment.”The report also reveals what US$1 million buys in prime global cities and popular second-home areas in sun and ski holiday locations. In Sydney, US$1 million buys 43 sqm, and on the Gold Coast, it buys 112 sqm. By comparison, US$1 million buys 20 sqm in Aspen, 22 sqm in Hong Kong, 32 sqm in St Tropez, 33 sqm in London, 34 sqm in New York, 38 sqm in Los Angeles, 40 sqm in Paris and 42 sqm in Shanghai.
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This may be contributing to continually rising weekly rents
2 min
There has been a substantial increase in the number of Australians earning high incomes who are renting their homes instead of owning them, and this may be another element contributing to higher market demand and continually rising rents, according to new research.
The portion of households with an annual income of $140,000 per year (in 2021 dollars), went from 8 percent of the private rental market in 1996 to 24 percent in 2021, according to research by the Australian Housing and Urban Research Institute (AHURI). The AHURI study highlights that longer-term declines in the rate of home ownership in Australia are likely the cause of this trend.
The biggest challenge this creates is the flow-on effect on lower-income households because they may face stronger competition for a limited supply of rental stock, and they also have less capacity to cope with rising rents that look likely to keep going up due to the entrenched undersupply.
The 2024 ANZ CoreLogic Housing Affordability Report notes that weekly rents have been rising strongly since the pandemic and are currently re-accelerating. “Nationally, annual rent growth has lifted from a recent low of 8.1 percent year-on-year in October 2023, to 8.6 percent year-on-year in March 2024,” according to the report. “The re-acceleration was particularly evident in house rents, where annual growth bottomed out at 6.8 percent in the year to September, and rose to 8.4 percent in the year to March 2024.”
Rents are also rising in markets that have experienced recent declines. “In Hobart, rent values saw a downturn of -6 percent between March and October 2023. Since bottoming out in October, rents have now moved 5 percent higher to the end of March, and are just 1 percent off the record highs in March 2023. The Canberra rental market was the only other capital city to see a decline in rents in recent years, where rent values fell -3.8 percent between June 2022 and September 2023. Since then, Canberra rents have risen 3.5 percent, and are 1 percent from the record high.”
The Productivity Commission’s review of the National Housing and Homelessness Agreement points out that high-income earners also have more capacity to relocate to cheaper markets when rents rise, which creates more competition for lower-income households competing for homes in those same areas.
ANZ CoreLogic notes that rents in lower-cost markets have risen the most in recent years, so much so that the portion of earnings that lower-income households have to dedicate to rent has reached a record high 54.3 percent. For middle-income households, it’s 32.2 percent and for high-income households, it’s just 22.9 percent. ‘Housing stress’ has long been defined as requiring more than 30 percent of income to put a roof over your head.
While some high-income households may aspire to own their own homes, rising property values have made that a difficult and long process given the years it takes to save a deposit. ANZ CoreLogic data shows it now takes a median 10.1 years in the capital cities and 9.9 years in regional areas to save a 20 percent deposit to buy a property.
It also takes 48.3 percent of income in the cities and 47.1 percent in the regions to cover mortgage repayments at today’s home loan interest rates, which is far greater than the portion of income required to service rents at a median 30.4 percent in cities and 33.3 percent in the regions.
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