Australian mortgage holders defying predictions and managing debt

The number of home loans in arrears are less than one percent of all borrowers, defying predictions of dire outcomes from a ‘mortgage cliff’ and the impact of high interest rates and cost of living pressures.

Most borrowers are making their home loan repayments on time, and although the number of loans in arrears has increased since late 2022, they represent only a tiny portion of the market, according to the Reserve Bank (RBA). Less than 1 percent of all housing loans are 90 or more days in arrears, which is lower than the pre-pandemic peak.

In its latest Financial Stability Review released this month, the RBA said households remain under pressure from high inflation and interest rates, with consumer sentiment very weak. More Australians than usual are seeking support from community organisations, and lenders have a small but rising number of borrowers on temporary hardship arrangements.

“Based on their latest assessment of the economic outlook, banks expect arrears rates to increase a bit further from here but remain low relative to history,” the RBA said.

The RBA notes that since the start of 2022, real disposable income has fallen by about 7 percent to be near its pre-pandemic level in per capita terms. Most mortgagors have seen 30-60 percent increases in their minimum home loan repayments since rates began rising in May 2022. However, only about 5 percent of variable-rate owner-occupier borrowers today have expenses exceeding incomes, giving them a cash flow shortfall.

Households are coping well due to a strong labour market, which is allowing them to increase their hours or get a second job if necessary. They are also drawing on large savings buffers, partly created by pandemic stimulus and lower spending during lockdowns, and have reduced their discretionary spending as necessary.

The loan arrears rate is highest among highly leveraged borrowers, however it is still very small at less than 2 percent. The share of mortgagors estimated to have a cash flow shortfall combined with low savings has risen over the past two years but still represents less than 2 percent of variable-rate owner-occupier borrowers. Unusually, the arrears rate among recent first home buyers is lower than average, possibly reflecting the Bank of Mum and Dad enabling young buyers to purchase properties with less debt.

The arrears rate among borrowers who rolled over from low fixed rates to variable rates in one hit – an event labelled ‘the mortgage cliff’ which was expected to hit hardest late last year – are managing their repayments just as well as other borrowers. “This resilience partly reflects that these borrowers were able to build up savings buffers over a longer period of unusually low interest rates,” the RBA said.

High income earners are depleting their pandemic savings at the fastest rate because they tend to be servicing greater debt. But they still have the highest savings and are likely using some of it to support continued discretionary spending. Conversely, the lowest-income mortgaged households grew their savings in 2023.

The RBA says nearly all borrowers should be able to service their loans even if inflation is more persistent than expected and interest rates remain higher for longer. While the RBA expects a rise in unemployment, it noted that historically mortgagors are less likely to lose their jobs. Many mortgagor households also have multiple incomes, and about half of all borrowers have enough savings to service their debts and essential expenses for at least six months. Lenders can also offer temporary support to borrowers who lose their jobs.

The RBA said most borrowers also have strong equity positions, which protects them from default and limits risk for lenders. Rising property prices last year gave homeowners more equity and banks have been issuing fewer high loan-to-value (LVR) loans since 2021. These types of loans are now at near-historical low levels.

“The share of loans (by number or balances) estimated to be in negative equity at current housing prices remains very low,” the RBA said. “While usually a last resort and very disruptive for owner-occupier borrowers, this would allow almost all borrowers to sell their properties and repay their loans in full before defaulting.”

Hypothetically, in a severe economic downturn during which housing values fell 30 percent, the RBA estimates that the share of loans falling into negative equity would increase to about 11 percent. The RBA said significant losses for lenders would only materialise if more borrowers became unable to service their loans.

The most convincing luxury interiors rarely need to announce their value.

Their appeal is revealed more gradually: in the weight of a door, the texture of a natural material, the proportion of the furniture or the way lighting changes the mood of a room after dark.

It is this quieter expression of luxury that has shaped the work of Charlie Rizk, founder and design director of Sydney studio Edge Design Consultants.

Established in 2006, the boutique practice works across residential and commercial interiors, offering services that range from architectural interior design and material selection to bespoke furniture, furnishing and final styling.

Its portfolio spans family homes, waterfront retreats, commercial workplaces and apartments within some of Sydney’s most prominent residential buildings. But according to the studio’s philosophy, the common thread is not a readily identifiable aesthetic.

Instead, it is an emphasis on longevity, personalisation and a close relationship between designer and client.

From the salon to the design studio

Rizk’s route into interior design was unconventional.

Before establishing Edge Design Consultants, he founded the Sydney hair salon Escapadehfb. While the two businesses operate in different creative fields, Rizk’s early career gave him experience in interpreting highly personal client briefs.

That ability to listen — and to distinguish between what a client initially requests and how they ultimately want to feel — became central to his work in interiors.

A client may arrive with a collection of reference images, favourite colours or individual pieces of furniture. The designer’s role is not simply to assemble those elements. It is to identify the underlying preference connecting them and translate it into a coherent environment.

That distinction becomes particularly important in bespoke residential design, where the success of a room is determined by more than its appearance in photographs.

The interior must accommodate routines, collections, entertaining, children, pets, privacy and storage. Materials must also be selected according to how they will perform after years of use.

A deliberately boutique model

Edge Design Consultants has remained a relatively small studio, allowing Rizk to maintain personal involvement across its projects.

For clients, that structure offers continuity. Architectural detailing, fixtures, finishes, furniture and styling can be developed as parts of the same design narrative rather than commissioned as disconnected stages.

The studio’s full-service model can begin with spatial planning and architectural interiors before progressing through mood boards, material selections, custom furniture and the final installation.

This continuity is particularly valuable on complex homes involving architects, builders, specialist trades, suppliers and landscape designers. Decisions made at the beginning of a project can affect everything that follows, from the dimensions of a custom sofa to the placement of lighting, power and joinery.

Bringing the interior designer into the process early can help prevent decorative decisions from being imposed on a largely completed building.

It also creates opportunities for furniture, art and objects to inform the architecture itself.

The case against a signature look

Many successful designers become associated with a recognisable palette or recurring visual device. Edge takes a less prescriptive position.

The studio’s work includes warm, layered family interiors as well as more restrained contemporary apartments and sharper commercial spaces. Its stated priorities are durability, considered materials and an understanding of the way each space will be occupied.

This does not mean abandoning a point of view. Rather, the designer’s sensibility is expressed through proportion, editing and consistency instead of a formula repeated from one project to another.

For affluent homeowners, this can be an important distinction. A heavily trend-driven interior may look current when completed but quickly reveal the moment in which it was designed.

An enduring home needs enough character to feel individual without becoming hostage to a short-lived fashion.

Natural stone, timber, metalwork and well-made furniture can provide that foundation, but material expense alone does not create permanence. The detailing, installation and relationship between the materials matter just as much.

Designing from the building out

Edge’s published portfolio includes residential projects in Pymble, Epping, North Rocks, Strathfield, Pyrmont and Wagstaffe, along with the furnishing and styling of a residence in Crown Sydney. A Pymble residence (below) was featured on Channel Nine’s Australia’s Best House in 2023.

The scope varies between projects.

Some commissions involve complete architectural interior design, furniture and styling. Others focus on furnishing an existing residence, where the challenge is to introduce identity without altering the underlying architecture.

A penthouse, for example, may already possess exceptional views, finishes and proportions. The designer’s task is then to create intimacy, establish visual rhythm and ensure the furniture remains appropriately scaled to the volume of the rooms.

A freestanding family home presents different considerations. Storage, circulation, durability and the relationship between indoor and outdoor areas may take precedence over creating a formal sense of arrival.

The best result is not necessarily the most dramatic. It is the one in which the architecture, finishes, furniture and objects feel as though they were always intended to coexist.

Luxury as a personal experience

After 20 years, Edge Design Consultants sits within a design market transformed by social media and unprecedented access to international references.

Clients can now identify furniture, stone, lighting and interiors from around the world before their first conversation with a designer. That access can broaden a brief, but it can also produce an overwhelming collection of competing ideas.

The designer’s role is increasingly one of curation: deciding what belongs, what should be removed and which references can be translated convincingly into an Australian home.

For Rizk, the boutique scale of Edge allows that process to remain personal.

The studio’s version of luxury is therefore not defined by a single material, brand or visual signature. It lies in the time spent understanding a client, the care with which each element is selected and the sense that the completed space belongs specifically to the people living within it.

Fact box

Designer: Charlie Rizk
Role: Founder and design director
Studio: Edge Design Consultants
Established: 2006
Location: Sydney, NSW
Services: Architectural interior design, spatial planning, mood boards, fixtures and finishes, bespoke furniture, furnishing and styling
Project types: Luxury residences, apartments, penthouses and boutique commercial interiors
Selected locations: Pymble, Epping, North Rocks, Strathfield, Pyrmont, Wagstaffe, Macquarie Park and Crown Sydney
Selected media: Australia’s Best House, Kanebridge Quarterly and Robb Report Australia
Website: edgedesignconsultants.com.au
Instagram: @edge_design_consultants