Australian mortgage holders defying predictions and managing debt
However, there is one group spending their savings at a faster rate than the rest
3 min
The number of home loans in arrears are less than one percent of all borrowers, defying predictions of dire outcomes from a ‘mortgage cliff’ and the impact of high interest rates and cost of living pressures.
Most borrowers are making their home loan repayments on time, and although the number of loans in arrears has increased since late 2022, they represent only a tiny portion of the market, according to the Reserve Bank (RBA). Less than 1 percent of all housing loans are 90 or more days in arrears, which is lower than the pre-pandemic peak.
In its latest Financial Stability Review released this month, the RBA said households remain under pressure from high inflation and interest rates, with consumer sentiment very weak. More Australians than usual are seeking support from community organisations, and lenders have a small but rising number of borrowers on temporary hardship arrangements.
“Based on their latest assessment of the economic outlook, banks expect arrears rates to increase a bit further from here but remain low relative to history,” the RBA said.
The RBA notes that since the start of 2022, real disposable income has fallen by about 7 percent to be near its pre-pandemic level in per capita terms. Most mortgagors have seen 30-60 percent increases in their minimum home loan repayments since rates began rising in May 2022. However, only about 5 percent of variable-rate owner-occupier borrowers today have expenses exceeding incomes, giving them a cash flow shortfall.
Households are coping well due to a strong labour market, which is allowing them to increase their hours or get a second job if necessary. They are also drawing on large savings buffers, partly created by pandemic stimulus and lower spending during lockdowns, and have reduced their discretionary spending as necessary.
The loan arrears rate is highest among highly leveraged borrowers, however it is still very small at less than 2 percent. The share of mortgagors estimated to have a cash flow shortfall combined with low savings has risen over the past two years but still represents less than 2 percent of variable-rate owner-occupier borrowers. Unusually, the arrears rate among recent first home buyers is lower than average, possibly reflecting the Bank of Mum and Dad enabling young buyers to purchase properties with less debt.
The arrears rate among borrowers who rolled over from low fixed rates to variable rates in one hit – an event labelled ‘the mortgage cliff’ which was expected to hit hardest late last year – are managing their repayments just as well as other borrowers. “This resilience partly reflects that these borrowers were able to build up savings buffers over a longer period of unusually low interest rates,” the RBA said.
High income earners are depleting their pandemic savings at the fastest rate because they tend to be servicing greater debt. But they still have the highest savings and are likely using some of it to support continued discretionary spending. Conversely, the lowest-income mortgaged households grew their savings in 2023.
The RBA says nearly all borrowers should be able to service their loans even if inflation is more persistent than expected and interest rates remain higher for longer. While the RBA expects a rise in unemployment, it noted that historically mortgagors are less likely to lose their jobs. Many mortgagor households also have multiple incomes, and about half of all borrowers have enough savings to service their debts and essential expenses for at least six months. Lenders can also offer temporary support to borrowers who lose their jobs.
The RBA said most borrowers also have strong equity positions, which protects them from default and limits risk for lenders. Rising property prices last year gave homeowners more equity and banks have been issuing fewer high loan-to-value (LVR) loans since 2021. These types of loans are now at near-historical low levels.
“The share of loans (by number or balances) estimated to be in negative equity at current housing prices remains very low,” the RBA said. “While usually a last resort and very disruptive for owner-occupier borrowers, this would allow almost all borrowers to sell their properties and repay their loans in full before defaulting.”
Hypothetically, in a severe economic downturn during which housing values fell 30 percent, the RBA estimates that the share of loans falling into negative equity would increase to about 11 percent. The RBA said significant losses for lenders would only materialise if more borrowers became unable to service their loans.
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Australia’s housing market defies forecasts as prices surge past pandemic-era benchmarks.
First-home incentives can still form part of a long-term investment plan if used strategically.
3 min
Australia’s home prices continue to grow, and while that makes them great investments, they are also some of the most unaffordable in the world.
That’s why first-home buyer schemes such as the First Home Owner Grant, the First Home Guarantee, and stamp duty concessions have become so valuable.
These programs are designed to reduce upfront costs and fast-track people into homeownership.
But the question many aspiring investors are now asking is can these schemes be used as part of an investment strategy? These government initiatives aren’t designed for investors, but they can still play a key role in your long-term investment journey if used strategically.
What the schemes actually allow
Every first-home buyer incentive in Australia is created to support owner-occupiers, not investors.
Whether it’s a cash grant, reduced deposit requirement, or a stamp duty discount, the catch is always the same in that you must live in the property for a set period of time. For example, the First Home Owner Grant often requires you to live in the property for at least six to twelve months, depending on the state.
The First Home Guarantee allows you to purchase with just a 5 per cent deposit without paying lenders’ mortgage insurance, but again, you’re required to live in the property for at least one year.
Likewise, state-based stamp duty concessions are only available for properties intended as a principal place of residence. If your intention from the outset is to buy a property solely for rental income, you won’t be eligible. However, if you’re open to living in the property initially, then transitioning it into an investment, there’s a path forward.
A strategy that works
Rentvesting has emerged as one of the most practical ways for first-time buyers to take advantage of these schemes while also laying the groundwork for a property portfolio.
The concept is simply, buying a property in an area you can afford (using the first-home buyer schemes to assist), live in it for the minimum required period, and then rent it out after fulfilling the occupancy condition.
This approach lets you legally access the benefits of first-home buyer schemes while building equity and entering the market sooner. Instead of waiting years to save a full 20 per cent deposit for an investment property, or getting priced out altogether, you get your foot in the door with reduced upfront costs.
Once you’ve satisfied the live-in requirement, the property can become an income-generating asset and even serve as collateral for your next purchase.
What to look for in a rentvestment property
If you plan to eventually convert the property into an investment, you need to think beyond your short-term living experience. It’s essential to buy a property that performs well both as a home and as a long-term asset.
That means looking at key fundamentals like location, rental demand, and growth potential. Suburbs with strong infrastructure, access to employment hubs, good transport links, and low vacancy rates should be high on your list.
A balanced price-to-rent ratio will help ensure manageable holding costs once the property transitions to an investment.
Established low-density areas often outperform high-rise apartment developments that flood the market with supply and limit capital growth. And ideally, your property should offer scope for future improvements, whether that’s a cosmetic renovation, granny flat addition, or potential to subdivide down the track.
Mistakes to avoid
There are a few common missteps that can undermine this strategy. The first is selling too soon. Some grants and stamp duty concessions include clawback provisions if you offload the property within a short period, which could see you lose the benefits or even owe money back.
It’s also a mistake to let the lure of a government handout sway your purchasing decision. A $10,000 grant doesn’t justify compromising on location, growth prospects, or property fundamentals.
Another pitfall is failing to consider the financial impact once the property becomes an investment. Repayments, tax treatment, and outgoings may change, so it’s important to stress-test your position from day one.
Lastly, beware of buying into oversupplied areas simply because they’re marketed to first-home buyers. Not all new builds are good investments. If hundreds of identical properties are being built nearby, your long-term growth could be seriously limited.
With the right approach, your first home can be the foundation for an entire property portfolio. It starts with using available government support to lower your entry cost.
From there, you occupy the property for the required time, convert it to an investment, and leverage the equity and rental income to fund your next purchase.
Many of the most successful investors today began with a single, strategically chosen property purchased using these exact schemes. By buying well, you can turn your first home into the launchpad for long-term wealth.
Abdullah Nouh is the Founder of Mecca Property Group (MPG), a buyers’ advisory firm specialising in investment opportunities in residential and commercial real estate. In recent years, his team has acquired over $300 million worth of assets for 250+ clients across Australia.
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