The climbing cost of climate change for the Australian property market
The insurance premium gap between flood affected and non-flood affected homes is significant
2 min
Climate change is already affecting home values due to the impact of more severe weather events and rising home insurance premiums, and the cost of building is likely to rise as regulatory changes designed to enhance climate resilience alter building codes and zoning laws, according to a new report.
The National Housing Supply and Affordability Council describes climate change as an emerging trend that is raising the cost and complexity of supplying more housing. In its newly released State of the Housing System report, the council discusses how climate change is reducing the value of some homes when major weather events cause flooding or other natural disasters.
“The price differential between flood-affected and non-flood affected homes has been estimated to be up to 35 percent a year after a flooding event,” the report says. “Furthermore, the RBA estimates around 7.5 percent of properties are in areas that could experience price falls of at least 5 percent due to climate change by 2050.”
More than one million households are struggling to afford home insurance, and rates of non-insurance are increasing due to the cost. For example, the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission estimated that 40 percent of homes in Northern Western Australia were uninsured in 2020.
“Climate change is causing home insurance premiums to rise across Australia, adding to already elevated housing costs. Homeowners in areas considered at–risk of natural disasters are expected to see insurance premiums rise further or have difficulty obtaining insurance due to heightened risks.”
More frequent and severe weather events such as cyclones and bushfires, as well as coastal erosion and flooding from rising sea levels, present risks to housing safety. More than 3,000 homes were lost in the 2019-20 bushfire season, causing $2.3 billion in insurance losses. The report says the predicted direct cost of natural disasters to the economy and housing will be $35.2 billion per year by 2050.
Climate change and net-zero targets could raise the cost of building new homes, the report says. “Regulatory changes to enhance climate resilience will alter building codes and zoning regulations.
Developers facing higher compliance costs may have difficulties meeting updated standards, potentially delaying or reducing housing availability.”
However, the report says the increased cost of building a home with climate-resistant materials and eco-friendly features is more than offset by lower energy costs over a property’s lifetime. The current minimum energy efficiency requirements within the National Construction Code are estimated to deliver a household–level benefit-to-cost ratio of 1.37, according to the report.
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Australia’s housing affordability crisis is being fuelled by chronic undersupply, planning delays and rising development costs, as politicians continue to focus on the wrong solutions.
3 min
Australia’s housing crisis will not be solved by first-home buyer incentives or tax changes alone, with leading property figures warning governments must tackle supply constraints if affordability is to improve.
Speaking at the Kanebridge Quarterly Property Leadership Summit in Sydney last week, expert project marketing specialist Sam Elbanna, property investor and fund manager Paul Miron and property consultant Karla McNeice said that a lack of housing supply remained the central issue facing the market.
Elbanna, Director of CPM Realty with more than 30 years’ experience in project sales, argued that successive governments had focused too heavily on stimulating demand rather than addressing the barriers preventing new housing from being delivered.
“The misconception is that politicians think the way to solve the housing crisis is to drive demand,” he said.
“The reality is that’s not the way. This is a supply-side problem, and it needs to be solved on the supply side.”
Drawing on his experience in project sales, Elbanna said policies designed to help first-home buyers often had unintended consequences, pointing to previous grants that ultimately flowed through to higher property prices.
Instead, he said developers were facing increasing red tape, approval delays and rising costs, which were discouraging new housing supply.
“In the absence of stock, demand exceeds supply,” he said.
Miron, a Co-Founder and Fund Manager of Msquared Capital, said the housing debate had become overly focused on tax policy while overlooking broader structural issues.
He argued that affordability challenges stemmed from a combination of factors, including planning constraints, supply shortages, migration levels and interest rates.
“No-one can be 100 per cent certain on the real reason for property prices is going up,” he said.
“The reason why property prices are higher is a combination of interest rates, lack of supply, migration, vacancy rates and maybe taxes play a role.”
Miron was critical of recent federal housing policy changes, warning they could reduce the number of new homes being built and further constrain supply that was even highlighted in the budget.
He also highlighted the importance of the property sector to the broader economy, noting that residential real estate and related industries employed more than one million Australians.
McNeice, who advises developers on sales strategy and market intelligence, said understanding buyers had become increasingly important as affordability pressures intensified.
While affordability remained a major consideration, she said today’s buyers were focused on value rather than simply price.
“People are looking for value for money,” she said.
She said buyers were increasingly evaluating factors such as transport connections, walkability, nearby amenities and flexible living spaces that could accommodate changing family needs.
“What infrastructure is going on? Can I walk to the shops? Can I meet people at the local cafe?” she said.
The panel also discussed the mounting pressures facing developers, with Elbanna arguing that many projects become financially unviable from the moment a site is purchased.
“The viability of a development happens at the moment the site is bought,” he said.
He said rising construction costs, higher interest rates and overly optimistic feasibility assumptions had left some developers exposed as market conditions changed.
While acknowledging the growing number of smaller and first-time developers entering the market, Elbanna said property development required expertise across finance, construction, marketing and legal disciplines.
“It is actually a business that requires a level of expertise,” he said.
Looking ahead, the panel agreed opportunities remained in the market despite current challenges.
Miron said property should continue to be viewed as a long-term investment and cautioned against trying to time short-term market movements.
McNeice said success would increasingly depend on identifying projects that genuinely met changing buyer expectations.
Elbanna said affordable housing remained achievable, but developers needed to deliver more than just homes.
“We can provide affordable housing in this country,” he said.
“But we’ve got to wrap that affordable housing with the things that people want.”
As Australia’s housing affordability debate intensifies, the panellists agreed on one point: without a meaningful increase in housing supply, demand-side measures alone are unlikely to solve the nation’s property challenges.
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