The Endless Cleanup at China’s Most Indebted Property Developer
China Evergrande Group feels the heat again as plans to reduce leverage rapidly.
China Evergrande Group feels the heat again as plans to reduce leverage rapidly.
Dogs bark, horses neigh, and investors worry about the financial health of China’s most leveraged property developer. The pattern is almost uncannily routine, but the latest drama at China Evergrande Group still bears watching.
The most recent wobble relates to the company’s relationship with Shengjing Bank, a regional lender in which it began buying a stake five years ago. Mainland Chinese media reports suggested that regulators are examining the bank’s transactions with Evergrande. Last week Chinese regulators warned that some small and midsize banks had exploited restrained property lending by their larger peers to expand their own exposure.
The company said on Monday that its financial links with Shengjing Bank were legally sound. Last week, Evergrande Chairman Hui Ka Yan promised to get on the good side of one of the government’s three red lines for property-developer leverage by the end of the month, doubling down on plans in the company’s last annual report.
Markets don’t seem entirely convinced that all is fine. On Friday, the yield on Evergrande’s dollar bonds maturing in March next year reached 19.8%. That is not anything like the near-30% levels of September last year, during the last panic about the company’s financial future, but it is up by more than 10 percentage points in the past two weeks.
For investors, Evergrande has been both a dream and a nightmare. The company’s stock is borderline uninvestable for bulls and bears alike, swayed regularly by buybacks and highly concentrated ownership. But its bonds, perpetually priced as if the company is at serious risk of collapse, have been enormously profitable for iron-stomached believers in the company’s political nous.
That doesn’t mean its frenetic business model won’t catch up with it eventually. Paying down some of its mountain of debt sounds like a good idea. So why hasn’t Evergrande done it before? The simple answer is that the company’s business model requires relentless growth and constant financing. Its compound revenue growth rate over the past decade is around 35% a year, outstripping that of U.S. tech giants like Apple and Amazon.
Paying off its debts is not a matter of simply trying harder; it needs to find money to do so. The most obvious route is to lean on less organized creditors instead of banks and bond investors. At the end of 2020, the company had over 1 trillion yuan (A$201 billion) in trade payables and contract liabilities, owed to suppliers and home buyers respectively, up almost 20% from a year earlier. The contract liabilities figure is one to watch in particular.
Unless bearish investors think they have some specific political insight that has escaped even the sector’s insiders, there is no point trying to guess which minor crisis might finally deal the company a more serious blow. But just because it can’t be timed, doesn’t mean that the day won’t eventually come.
Chris Dixon, a partner who led the charge, says he has a ‘very long-term horizon’
Americans now think they need at least $1.25 million for retirement, a 20% increase from a year ago, according to a survey by Northwestern Mutual
A new digital real estate site promises a full view of the housing sector, even those places not on the market
Hot on the heels of the launch of View Media Group last year, Australia’s newest proptech digital media company has gone live with its consumer-facing real estate site, view.com.au.
The new site offers a ‘freemium’ model allowing vendors to list their properties for free while having the option of further upgrades for agents looking to enhance their listings.
VGM executive chairman Anthony Catalano said the model was a ‘game changer’ in the digital real estate space.
“While VMG is much more than a portal play, it’s critical that we have a consumer-facing brand that will act as the front door to attract consumers and in turn allow us to offer products and services in a range of verticals across the property ecosystem,” Mr Catalano said. “Our plan is to create a digital real estate superstore under the new View brand that will play in the $300 billion adjacency categories rather than solely focus on the $1
billion of digital property advertising.”
“We’ve listened to the industry and the time is right for an offer to come to market with an alternative model that addresses the real estate industry’s concern at the continually
escalating price of advertising.”
The View portal is available through app stores and will include properties across the country, not just those on the market right now.
“That means view.com.au will showcase more than 11 million properties in Australia compared to some of the portals which feature around 140,000 properties for sale,” Mr Catalano said. “From Day 1 we will provide consumers with a complete view of the market.’’
View has worked with mapping partner Nearmap to create the ability to have a comprehensive overview of all properties.
“We’ve had a look globally at best practice search for property and we’ve consumer tested a range of options and without doubt the preferred experience is map-based search,” View CEO Toby Blazs said. “So unlike others in the market who default consumers to a list view, we’ll default our search results via a map.”
Mr Catalano said the innovative site was designed to be a true disruptor in the proptech sector.
“VMG continues to grow and tick off the key parts of its strategic plan,” he said. “We are well on the way to forming a global-first conglomerate of proptech assets including portals, ad tech, lead generation, lead management solutions, media planning and buying, AI services, data and connections all under the one roof.”
Chris Dixon, a partner who led the charge, says he has a ‘very long-term horizon’
Americans now think they need at least $1.25 million for retirement, a 20% increase from a year ago, according to a survey by Northwestern Mutual