The new east coast capital outranking Melbourne for property values
The ability to work from home prompted many Australians to relocate to this city for lifestyle and affordability during the pandemic
2 min
The median home value in Brisbane has surpassed Melbourne for the first time in 15 years following a staggering 50 percent increase in home prices since the onset of the pandemic in March 2020. CoreLogic Head of Research, Eliza Owen said the price data reflects “the substantial impact that the pandemic has had on housing preferences” in Australia. Before the pandemic, Brisbane’s median dwelling value was $187,000 lower than Melbourne’s and today it is $7,000 higher at $787,000.
Brisbane now has the third-highest median dwelling value among the capital cities, behind Sydney and Canberra. Home values in the nation’s capital overtook Melbourne in 2021, with Canberra’s median dwelling value rising 31 percent between March 2020 and today. Over the same time frame, Melbourne values rose by just 11 percent, which was the weakest growth among the capital cities. Melbourne was last year rated the third most liveable city in the world on the Global Liveability Index by the Economic Intelligence Unit, the highest ranking for any Australian city.
“[Brisbane’s] appeal amid an increase in remote work helped fuel strong population growth, increasing housing demand, driving down supply and making it a seller’s market,” Ms Owen said. “The reason for such varied capital growth outcomes may be partly due to lifestyle factors, where the appeal of South East Queensland rose through the pandemic. The normalisation of remote work for many professionals made interstate migration to Queensland more feasible, while Melbourne’s extended lockdowns from March 2020 through to October 2021 may have prompted people to leave the city.”
Net interstate migration to Queensland reached a record high of 51,500 in the year to March 2022, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics. Over the same period, net interstate migration to Victoria was -20,000. “Net internal migration to Victoria bottomed out at a loss of -35,600 people in the year to June 2021, and was still negative as of June last year,” Ms Owen said. “Value falls across Melbourne were also exacerbated by the loss of overseas migration through COVID.”
Over the 12 months to June 2022, Brisbane’s population grew by 2.3 percent compared to Melbourne’s 1.1 percent. However, Melbourne’s residential population is almost double the size of Brisbane at an estimated 5,031,000 people compared to 2,628,000 in Brisbane.
Ms Owen also explained a technical reason why Brisbane’s median dwelling value has surpassed that of Melbourne. Dwelling median values combine all types of properties. If the data is separated into houses and apartments, Melbourne remains more expensive than Brisbane – but only just. Melbourne’s median house price is $72,000 higher than Brisbane and the median apartment price is $49,000 higher. “The reason for this is that Melbourne has a higher share of units as a portion of the dwelling market. Because units are generally lower value than detached houses, a higher portion of units brings down the median dwelling [value] across all houses and units.”
Ms Owen said Brisbane remains a seller’s market, although the pace of growth in home values is now easing.
“As home values in the city continue to rise, there is less claim to Brisbane being relatively affordable, and some prospective interstate movers may decide to remain in their city,” she said. “Recent weeks have also demonstrated there is some added risk to pockets of the Brisbane property market from extreme weather and flooding, which could impact demand in the near term.”
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Australia’s housing affordability crisis is being fuelled by chronic undersupply, planning delays and rising development costs, as politicians continue to focus on the wrong solutions.
3 min
Australia’s housing crisis will not be solved by first-home buyer incentives or tax changes alone, with leading property figures warning governments must tackle supply constraints if affordability is to improve.
Speaking at the Kanebridge Quarterly Property Leadership Summit in Sydney last week, expert project marketing specialist Sam Elbanna, property investor and fund manager Paul Miron and property consultant Karla McNeice said that a lack of housing supply remained the central issue facing the market.
Elbanna, Director of CPM Realty with more than 30 years’ experience in project sales, argued that successive governments had focused too heavily on stimulating demand rather than addressing the barriers preventing new housing from being delivered.
“The misconception is that politicians think the way to solve the housing crisis is to drive demand,” he said.
“The reality is that’s not the way. This is a supply-side problem, and it needs to be solved on the supply side.”
Drawing on his experience in project sales, Elbanna said policies designed to help first-home buyers often had unintended consequences, pointing to previous grants that ultimately flowed through to higher property prices.
Instead, he said developers were facing increasing red tape, approval delays and rising costs, which were discouraging new housing supply.
“In the absence of stock, demand exceeds supply,” he said.
Miron, a Co-Founder and Fund Manager of Msquared Capital, said the housing debate had become overly focused on tax policy while overlooking broader structural issues.
He argued that affordability challenges stemmed from a combination of factors, including planning constraints, supply shortages, migration levels and interest rates.
“No-one can be 100 per cent certain on the real reason for property prices is going up,” he said.
“The reason why property prices are higher is a combination of interest rates, lack of supply, migration, vacancy rates and maybe taxes play a role.”
Miron was critical of recent federal housing policy changes, warning they could reduce the number of new homes being built and further constrain supply that was even highlighted in the budget.
He also highlighted the importance of the property sector to the broader economy, noting that residential real estate and related industries employed more than one million Australians.
McNeice, who advises developers on sales strategy and market intelligence, said understanding buyers had become increasingly important as affordability pressures intensified.
While affordability remained a major consideration, she said today’s buyers were focused on value rather than simply price.
“People are looking for value for money,” she said.
She said buyers were increasingly evaluating factors such as transport connections, walkability, nearby amenities and flexible living spaces that could accommodate changing family needs.
“What infrastructure is going on? Can I walk to the shops? Can I meet people at the local cafe?” she said.
The panel also discussed the mounting pressures facing developers, with Elbanna arguing that many projects become financially unviable from the moment a site is purchased.
“The viability of a development happens at the moment the site is bought,” he said.
He said rising construction costs, higher interest rates and overly optimistic feasibility assumptions had left some developers exposed as market conditions changed.
While acknowledging the growing number of smaller and first-time developers entering the market, Elbanna said property development required expertise across finance, construction, marketing and legal disciplines.
“It is actually a business that requires a level of expertise,” he said.
Looking ahead, the panel agreed opportunities remained in the market despite current challenges.
Miron said property should continue to be viewed as a long-term investment and cautioned against trying to time short-term market movements.
McNeice said success would increasingly depend on identifying projects that genuinely met changing buyer expectations.
Elbanna said affordable housing remained achievable, but developers needed to deliver more than just homes.
“We can provide affordable housing in this country,” he said.
“But we’ve got to wrap that affordable housing with the things that people want.”
As Australia’s housing affordability debate intensifies, the panellists agreed on one point: without a meaningful increase in housing supply, demand-side measures alone are unlikely to solve the nation’s property challenges.
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