The new east coast capital outranking Melbourne for property values
The ability to work from home prompted many Australians to relocate to this city for lifestyle and affordability during the pandemic
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The median home value in Brisbane has surpassed Melbourne for the first time in 15 years following a staggering 50 percent increase in home prices since the onset of the pandemic in March 2020. CoreLogic Head of Research, Eliza Owen said the price data reflects “the substantial impact that the pandemic has had on housing preferences” in Australia. Before the pandemic, Brisbane’s median dwelling value was $187,000 lower than Melbourne’s and today it is $7,000 higher at $787,000.
Brisbane now has the third-highest median dwelling value among the capital cities, behind Sydney and Canberra. Home values in the nation’s capital overtook Melbourne in 2021, with Canberra’s median dwelling value rising 31 percent between March 2020 and today. Over the same time frame, Melbourne values rose by just 11 percent, which was the weakest growth among the capital cities. Melbourne was last year rated the third most liveable city in the world on the Global Liveability Index by the Economic Intelligence Unit, the highest ranking for any Australian city.
“[Brisbane’s] appeal amid an increase in remote work helped fuel strong population growth, increasing housing demand, driving down supply and making it a seller’s market,” Ms Owen said. “The reason for such varied capital growth outcomes may be partly due to lifestyle factors, where the appeal of South East Queensland rose through the pandemic. The normalisation of remote work for many professionals made interstate migration to Queensland more feasible, while Melbourne’s extended lockdowns from March 2020 through to October 2021 may have prompted people to leave the city.”
Net interstate migration to Queensland reached a record high of 51,500 in the year to March 2022, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics. Over the same period, net interstate migration to Victoria was -20,000. “Net internal migration to Victoria bottomed out at a loss of -35,600 people in the year to June 2021, and was still negative as of June last year,” Ms Owen said. “Value falls across Melbourne were also exacerbated by the loss of overseas migration through COVID.”
Over the 12 months to June 2022, Brisbane’s population grew by 2.3 percent compared to Melbourne’s 1.1 percent. However, Melbourne’s residential population is almost double the size of Brisbane at an estimated 5,031,000 people compared to 2,628,000 in Brisbane.
Ms Owen also explained a technical reason why Brisbane’s median dwelling value has surpassed that of Melbourne. Dwelling median values combine all types of properties. If the data is separated into houses and apartments, Melbourne remains more expensive than Brisbane – but only just. Melbourne’s median house price is $72,000 higher than Brisbane and the median apartment price is $49,000 higher. “The reason for this is that Melbourne has a higher share of units as a portion of the dwelling market. Because units are generally lower value than detached houses, a higher portion of units brings down the median dwelling [value] across all houses and units.”
Ms Owen said Brisbane remains a seller’s market, although the pace of growth in home values is now easing.
“As home values in the city continue to rise, there is less claim to Brisbane being relatively affordable, and some prospective interstate movers may decide to remain in their city,” she said. “Recent weeks have also demonstrated there is some added risk to pockets of the Brisbane property market from extreme weather and flooding, which could impact demand in the near term.”
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This may be contributing to continually rising weekly rents
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There has been a substantial increase in the number of Australians earning high incomes who are renting their homes instead of owning them, and this may be another element contributing to higher market demand and continually rising rents, according to new research.
The portion of households with an annual income of $140,000 per year (in 2021 dollars), went from 8 percent of the private rental market in 1996 to 24 percent in 2021, according to research by the Australian Housing and Urban Research Institute (AHURI). The AHURI study highlights that longer-term declines in the rate of home ownership in Australia are likely the cause of this trend.
The biggest challenge this creates is the flow-on effect on lower-income households because they may face stronger competition for a limited supply of rental stock, and they also have less capacity to cope with rising rents that look likely to keep going up due to the entrenched undersupply.
The 2024 ANZ CoreLogic Housing Affordability Report notes that weekly rents have been rising strongly since the pandemic and are currently re-accelerating. “Nationally, annual rent growth has lifted from a recent low of 8.1 percent year-on-year in October 2023, to 8.6 percent year-on-year in March 2024,” according to the report. “The re-acceleration was particularly evident in house rents, where annual growth bottomed out at 6.8 percent in the year to September, and rose to 8.4 percent in the year to March 2024.”
Rents are also rising in markets that have experienced recent declines. “In Hobart, rent values saw a downturn of -6 percent between March and October 2023. Since bottoming out in October, rents have now moved 5 percent higher to the end of March, and are just 1 percent off the record highs in March 2023. The Canberra rental market was the only other capital city to see a decline in rents in recent years, where rent values fell -3.8 percent between June 2022 and September 2023. Since then, Canberra rents have risen 3.5 percent, and are 1 percent from the record high.”
The Productivity Commission’s review of the National Housing and Homelessness Agreement points out that high-income earners also have more capacity to relocate to cheaper markets when rents rise, which creates more competition for lower-income households competing for homes in those same areas.
ANZ CoreLogic notes that rents in lower-cost markets have risen the most in recent years, so much so that the portion of earnings that lower-income households have to dedicate to rent has reached a record high 54.3 percent. For middle-income households, it’s 32.2 percent and for high-income households, it’s just 22.9 percent. ‘Housing stress’ has long been defined as requiring more than 30 percent of income to put a roof over your head.
While some high-income households may aspire to own their own homes, rising property values have made that a difficult and long process given the years it takes to save a deposit. ANZ CoreLogic data shows it now takes a median 10.1 years in the capital cities and 9.9 years in regional areas to save a 20 percent deposit to buy a property.
It also takes 48.3 percent of income in the cities and 47.1 percent in the regions to cover mortgage repayments at today’s home loan interest rates, which is far greater than the portion of income required to service rents at a median 30.4 percent in cities and 33.3 percent in the regions.
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