The new east coast capital outranking Melbourne for property values

The median home value in Brisbane has surpassed Melbourne for the first time in 15 years following a staggering 50 percent increase in home prices since the onset of the pandemic in March 2020. CoreLogic Head of Research, Eliza Owen said the price data reflects “the substantial impact that the pandemic has had on housing preferences” in Australia. Before the pandemic, Brisbane’s median dwelling value was $187,000 lower than Melbourne’s and today it is $7,000 higher at $787,000.

Brisbane now has the third-highest median dwelling value among the capital cities, behind Sydney and Canberra. Home values in the nation’s capital overtook Melbourne in 2021, with Canberra’s median dwelling value rising 31 percent between March 2020 and today. Over the same time frame, Melbourne values rose by just 11 percent, which was the weakest growth among the capital cities. Melbourne was last year rated the third most liveable city in the world on the Global Liveability Index by the Economic Intelligence Unit, the highest ranking for any Australian city.

“[Brisbane’s] appeal amid an increase in remote work helped fuel strong population growth, increasing housing demand, driving down supply and making it a seller’s market,” Ms Owen said. “The reason for such varied capital growth outcomes may be partly due to lifestyle factors, where the appeal of South East Queensland rose through the pandemic. The normalisation of remote work for many professionals made interstate migration to Queensland more feasible, while Melbourne’s extended lockdowns from March 2020 through to October 2021 may have prompted people to leave the city.”

Net interstate migration to Queensland reached a record high of 51,500 in the year to March 2022, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics. Over the same period, net interstate migration to Victoria was -20,000. “Net internal migration to Victoria bottomed out at a loss of -35,600 people in the year to June 2021, and was still negative as of June last year,” Ms Owen said. “Value falls across Melbourne were also exacerbated by the loss of overseas migration through COVID.”

Over the 12 months to June 2022, Brisbane’s population grew by 2.3 percent compared to Melbourne’s 1.1 percent. However, Melbourne’s residential population is almost double the size of Brisbane at an estimated 5,031,000 people compared to 2,628,000 in Brisbane.

Ms Owen also explained a technical reason why Brisbane’s median dwelling value has surpassed that of Melbourne. Dwelling median values combine all types of properties. If the data is separated into houses and apartments, Melbourne remains more expensive than Brisbane – but only just. Melbourne’s median house price is $72,000 higher than Brisbane and the median apartment price is $49,000 higher. “The reason for this is that Melbourne has a higher share of units as a portion of the dwelling market. Because units are generally lower value than detached houses, a higher portion of units brings down the median dwelling [value] across all houses and units.”

Ms Owen said Brisbane remains a seller’s market, although the pace of growth in home values is now easing.

“As home values in the city continue to rise, there is less claim to Brisbane being relatively affordable, and some prospective interstate movers may decide to remain in their city,” she said. “Recent weeks have also demonstrated there is some added risk to pockets of the Brisbane property market from extreme weather and flooding, which could impact demand in the near term.”