The state leading Australia economically for the first time

South Australia is leading the country economically, with a population surge post-COVID boosting economic demand, lowering unemployment and creating a property market boom. Amid a national housing undersupply crisis, South Australia has the best rate of new home building activity and house prices have risen 10 percent in Adelaide and 9 percent in regional South Australia over the past 12 months.

CommSec’s quarterly State of the States report compares the states and territories on eight economic measures: economic growth, retail spending, equipment investment, unemployment, construction, population growth, housing finance and dwelling commencements. The report compares each measure against the long-term trends for each state and territory to determine the out performers.

According to the latest report, South Australia is the best-performing economy and comes out on top in four categories — economic growth, unemployment, construction work and dwelling starts.

The states and territories were ranked in the following order:

CommSec chief economist Craig James said this is the first time in the 15-year history of the report that South Australia has emerged as Australia’s leading state economy.

“Population growth in South Australia has tripled over the past two years, which is showing up in a strong housing market and overall economic activity,” Mr James said. He commented that Australia’s resilient jobs market and strong population growth are underpinning all state and territory economies, however high interest rates and the cost-of-living crisis have led to a slower pace of economic growth in all of them.

Economic activity in South Australia in the September quarter was 9 percent above its four-year average level of output. NSW was in second spot at 8.3 percent above its four-year average. Trend unemployment in South Australia was 3.8 percent in December, which was 36.5 percent below the state’s decade-average. Tasmania ranked second at 3.9 percent, 32.8 percent below its norm.

South Australia ranked first for construction work, based on the total real value of residential, commercial and engineering work completed in trend terms in the September quarter. South Australia completed just over $4 billion of construction during the period, which was 23.4 percent above its decade average, ahead of NSW with $19.7 billion of work, 18.3 percent above its average.

South Australia is also building new homes at a more rapid rate than any other state or territory. In the September quarter, South Australia booked 2,852 dwelling starts, which was just 2.3 percent below its decade average. Tasmania was second with 703 starts, 3.2 percent below its average. Dwelling starts in the two most populous states in Australia were woefully below their decade averages. In NSW, 10,536 starts were recorded, down 28.8 percent on the decade average. In Victoria, there were 12,666 starts, down 20.7 percent on normal trends.

The downside to South Australia’s economic growth has been a greater rate of inflation. Adelaide recorded the highest annual inflation rate in the September quarter at 5.9 percent, ahead of Perth at 5.8 percent. But this was only slightly above the national inflation rate of 5.4 percent. Last week, the Australian Bureau of Statistics released the December quarter national inflation figures, which revealed a substantial fall from 5.4 percent to 4.1 percent. This was among the reasons that the Reserve Bank kept interest rates on hold after its first meeting of the new year this week.