Unit prices prove resilient in a post COVID property market
It’s easy to think that it’s all doom and gloom for Australian property values, but for long term owners and investors, there’s still reasons to be cheerful
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There were so many aspects about COVID 19 that were unprecedented, from the changes to daily working life to the impacts on mental health of extended periods of lockdown.
In the property world, it was also an untested period, with some sectors of the market predicting prices would fall. What happened instead was an escalation in prices from March 2020 onwards as the notion of home as sanctuary accelerated interest in property in urban and regional areas.
As governments around Australia moved away from zero COVID targets and life began to look a little more normal, property values appeared to dramatically fall in 2022. However, for those in the property market for the long haul, the news is positive.
Latest research from property data provider, CoreLogic reveals that while national unit values fell -6.1 percent in the past nine months, they are still 7.3 percent higher than those recorded in March 2020. National house values are 17.3 percent higher than they were prior to the pandemic.
Results are mixed across the capitals, however. While most markets continue to record values between 10 percent and 50 percent above pre- covid levels, CoreLogic reports that units in Sydney and Melbourne are almost back to their pre pandemic values.
Outside the major capitals, regional growth for units remained positive, however, consecutive interest rate rises are expected to take a toll.
“Following a temporary reprieve in interest rate rises in January, the RBA’s 25 basis point increase announced in February was accompanied by a marked change in tone,” the report said. “Previously optimistic, the Board reiterated its commitment to fighting inflation, noting that further rate hikes would be needed to get inflation under control.
With many economists now expecting the cash rate to settle closer to 4 percent than 3 percent, the outlook for unit values, and the broader property market, remains skewed to the negative.”
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A legacy “partner” lease structure tied to sales, not fixed rent, is drawing investor attention as a potential hedge against inflation.
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A McDonald’s restaurant in Yass has been brought to market with one of the last remaining pure turnover leases in Australia, offering investors a direct share of revenue rather than a traditional fixed rental return.
The asset, located at 1713 Yass Valley Way, is being marketed by JLL via an expressions of interest campaign closing on 30 April. It is underpinned by a legacy lease structure no longer offered by McDonald’s in Australia.
Under the arrangement, the landlord receives 6.5 cents for every dollar spent at the restaurant, creating uncapped income growth linked directly to sales performance.
The lease is structured as triple net, meaning no operational risk, capital expenditure obligations or management responsibilities for the owner.
According to JLL, the property has recorded compounded annual sales growth of 4.26 per cent since 2003, with rental income rising by 150 per cent over the same period.
JLL’s David Mahood said the structure allows investors to “participate directly in the sales growth” of the business, rather than relying on fixed annual rent reviews.
The newly commenced lease runs to 2036, with four additional 10-year options extending to 2076, providing a weighted average lease expiry of 9.92 years by income.
The asset sits on a 3,571 square metre freehold site in Yass, with significant frontage to the Hume Highway, one of Australia’s busiest freight corridors.
The location benefits from high volumes of passing traffic, including an estimated 75,000 vehicles per day.
The quick service restaurant sector has remained resilient through economic cycles, including the pandemic and recent cost-of-living pressures, with McDonald’s continuing to expand its footprint and invest in store upgrades across Australia.
JLL pointed to strong investor demand for McDonald’s-backed assets, with recent transactions typically yielding between the high 2 per cent to mid 3 per cent range.
The Yass listing is expected to attract interest due to the scarcity of turnover-based leases, which provide a natural hedge against inflation by linking income growth to consumer spending rather than predetermined increases.
McDonald’s Yass is available for sale via an Expressions of Interest campaign closing at 3:00pm (AEST) on Thursday, April 30.
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