When to buy property in a slowing real estate market

Buy low, sell high. It’s the mantra for any asset transaction — and real estate is no different. Short of investing in a crystal ball, switched on buyers study market cycles to get the best impression of what the medium to long term holds.

Past behaviour of a suburb or property type is one of the best indicators of future behaviour at a micro level, but there are also a number of macro factors to be taken into account.

Watching the ticking property clock

Australian real estate travels through property cycles, which traditionally last between seven to 10 years. However, individual cities and towns (and then suburbs or property types within those locations) can run an independent race from the rest of the country.

National property valuation advisory firm Herron Todd White publishes a monthly ‘property clock’ which takes a regular snapshot of where house and unit markets are sitting within the cycle, indicating a market peak, a bottom, and the transitions in between.

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“The property clock is meant to be a kind of ready reckoner, so you can make a swift general comparison about what different markets are doing,” says Kevin Brogan, National Director, Group Risk and Compliance of Herron Todd White.

Although common sense might suggest it would be wise not to buy in areas sitting at the peak “12 o’clock” position, Brogan says it’s not always that simple.

“If somebody in Sydney is looking at a property in Adelaide, they might see it sitting in a peak position, but they’ll also look at the price point and think ‘Well, I don’t mind because Adelaide looks very affordable’. A local might feel differently.”

By the end of 2022, Sydney and Melbourne sat on the declining side of the “property clock” after reaching their peak positions in February 2022 and December 2021 respectively. Purchasers might be temped to take a “wait and see” approach, but there is no one-size-fits-all answer.

“You’ve had an interest rate environment putting pressure on buyers, but if there’s sustained demand in the market because of economic and population growth, that’s going to have a positive impact across different market segments,” Brogan says, adding that certain property types can also buck the cyclical trends.

“Vacant land and properties requiring refurbishment have struggled because of escalating building costs and concerns around the durations of projects.

“Conversely, renovated properties are selling quite well even in Sydney and Melbourne. So it’s very tempting to just look at a geographical market — and at a high level it’s quite useful to do that — but if you’re on the verge of making a decision, you need to look at the sub market too.”

Timing the market…

Waiting for the market to hit rock bottom might feel like the right buying strategy, however chief economist for Ray White Group, Nerida Conisbee, warns even schooled experts can often only pinpoint the trough in retrospect.

“Markets can move really quickly. At the start of the pandemic some economists were suggesting a 30 per cent decline, and then suddenly it turned around and we saw a 30 per cent increase,” she says.

Ray White chief economist Nerida Conisbee

From the first Reserve Bank official cash rate increase in April 2022, prices across many Australian markets started to decline after a short sharp boom, but just how long (and where) negative movement will be seen in 2023 depends on several factors.

“It’s been a slowdown that really had to happen because property was getting really too expensive,” Conisbee says.

“But what we’re seeing is quite different changes to property values depending on where you are.

“There’s such a diversion in geographic conditions, so much so that when people talk about a 20 percent price drop there’s absolutely no way that will happen across Australia. Even the market that’s most likely to see that drop would be Sydney because of the extraordinary gains, but it’s not going to be all of Sydney. Prices are certainly not going to drop to bargain levels.”

She added that since the recent price correction had been brought around almost solely by interest rates increases, once they stop the tables could turn.

“Once we start to see interest rates peak, potentially around March, that’s the point at which prices will start to stabilise,” she says. “And if you look at other factors that typically lead to price decline, we’re actually seeing the opposite. Population growth is starting to ramp up again and migration is back.

“If you try and wait for the bottom, you could quickly find yourself in a dramatically different situation and you might discover you’ve missed the boat.”

…Or time in the market

It is a real estate cliche, but time in the market is often better than timing the market, says Brogan.

“Although timing can be important in terms of the transaction to enter the market, you also have to consider how long you intend to hold the property for,” he says. “If you’re looking for a quick in and out, then timing is critical, but if you’re looking to hold for a period of time, it’s a different story.

“Everyone loves a bargain, everyone loves to tell their friends how well they’ve done in any transaction, particularly with property.

“It’s only human nature to want to minimise your outlay, and that thinking won’t necessarily do you any harm. Unless, of course, analysis paralysis means you hold out or don’t act at all and you miss out altogether.”

Conisbee said the mistake many bargain-hunting buyers make in a declining real estate market is holding out too long only to jump in with everyone else.

“Of course it’s great to buy at the bottom of the market,” she says. “Ultimately though, if you’re holding on long term it doesn’t matter when you buy in a cycle. The best time to buy is when you find the right home in the right location at a price you can afford.”

Melbourne is considered Australia’s most liveable city. In fact, Melbourne competes on the global stage, consistently ranking among Time Out’s top cities to live in the world and ranking fourth in 2025. Melbourne is a cultural mecca filled with arts, x, and the country’s best sporting events.

It’s the lifestyle factor that has seen Melbourne’s population grow by over 142,000 people over the 23/24 financial year, largely driven by overseas migration. With increased population comes increased demand for properties, particularly in the rental market.

Akin to Sydney’s Eastern Suburbs, Melbourne’s South Eastern suburbs, towards Bayside and the water, dominate the most expensive suburbs listed to rent across the Victorian capital.

In this article, we’ve examined the six most expensive suburbs to rent a house in Melbourne right now, according to property data analytics firm Cotality (formerly CoreLogic).

Brighton

Median purchase: $3.15m
Median rent: $1,353

Brighton is Melbourne’s most expensive suburb to rent a house, and it’s easy to see why. A blend of grand period homes and modern architectural builds line the wide, tree-filled streets. The suburb is synonymous with luxury, and rental properties—especially those close to the famed Brighton Beach and its iconic bathing boxes—are snapped up quickly. Vacancy rates sit at a tight 0.9 per cent.

The Neighbourhood

Brighton offers an enviable mix of a beachside lifestyle and convenient shopping and dining. With access to top schools like Brighton Grammar and Firbank, plus Church Street’s boutiques and the Royal Brighton Yacht Club, the Bayside suburb is the complete package for Melbourne’s high-end renters.

Malvern

Median purchase: $2.8m
Median rent: $1,313

Long known for its timeless Victorian and Edwardian homes, Malvern is a leafy inner suburb with prestige appeal. Many properties here are fully renovated period homes, featuring extensive gardens and original features that appeal to families and executives.

The Neighbourhood
Malvern boasts a refined atmosphere with a strong community feel. Glenferrie Road and High Street offer upscale cafes, boutiques, and grocers, while schools like De La Salle and St Joseph’s make the suburb particularly attractive to families.

Black Rock

Median purchase: $2.29m
Median rent: $1,253

Nestled along the Bayside coast, Black Rock has seen steady growth in both house prices and rents in recent years. Larger blocks and a quieter, more laid-back vibe than neighbouring suburbs make this a coveted spot for renters seeking both space and lifestyle.

The Neighbourhood
Black Rock is home to the picturesque Half Moon Bay and scenic cliffside walks. The suburb blends beachside charm with village convenience, offering local cafés, golf courses, and direct access to some of Melbourne’s best coastal trails.

Sandringham

Median purchase: $2.21m
Median rent: $1,199

Sandringham, next door to Black Rock, offers more of the same as its neighbouring suburb, at similar prices. Sandringham too ticks the box for laid-back waterside recreation, with the majority of homes in walking distance to the sand and charming village shops.

The Neighbourhood
This is a family-friendly suburb with a strong community vibe. Sandringham Village, with its mix of cafes, wine bars, and boutiques, sits just a short walk from the train station and beach. The area also offers excellent sporting facilities and parks. Sandringham Harbour is the local landmark, a popular destination for boating, fishing, and waterfront views from Sandringham Yacht Club.

Canterbury

Median purchase: $3.15m
Median rent: $1,179

Canterbury is the innermost Melbourne suburb on this list. It is considered one of Melbourne’s most prestigious suburbs, defined by grand family homes, generally over-the-top opulent new builds with French Provincial façades behind gated entries.

The Neighbourhood
Canterbury is anchored by the exclusive “Golden Mile” precinct and is surrounded by elite private schools such as Camberwell Grammar and Strathcona. Maling Road provides a quaint village feel, while the area’s lush green spaces complete the picture of prestige.

Hampton

Median purchase: $2.3m
Median rent: $1,171

It’s back to Bayside for the sixth and final suburb on the priciest rental areas in Melbourne. Hampton is not too dissimilar to Brighton, with a main High Street providing convenience and the beach rounding out the relaxed lifestyle found on the bay. The suburb has undergone significant gentrification, with many original homes replaced by contemporary builds.

The Neighbourhood
With a stretch of clean, family-friendly beach and the bustling Hampton Street shopping strip, Hampton has everything renters could want—from stylish cafes to gourmet grocers and boutique fitness studios. Its proximity to Brighton and Sandringham only adds to its appeal.

Melbourne’s Cheapest Suburb: Melton South

Median purchase: $460,000
Median rent: $430

On the opposite end of the spectrum, Melton South—roughly 40km west of the CBD—offers the most affordable rental market. With a median rent of under $450 a week, it’s less than a third of the weekly rent in Brighton. The suburb attracts families and first-home renters seeking value and larger land lots.

Melbourne’s Best Suburb: Toorak

Toorak is considered the Point Piper of Melbourne. Boasting even more billionaires than Sydney’s harbourside hotspot, Toorak is home to Melbourne’s most expensive houses, and reportedly Australia’s most expensive house sale if the 1860s Italianate mansion Coonac settles at over $130 million.

The suburb has some of the best educational institutions in Melbourne, as well as luxury homes on the Yarra, two train stations, and a central shopping precinct undergoing a full transformation with several mixed-use retail and residential developments. It is definitely the place to be.

Where is Melbourne’s most expensive suburb to rent a house?

As of May 2025, Brighton is Melbourne’s most expensive suburb to rent a house.

Where is Melbourne’s cheapest suburb to rent a unit?

As of May 2025, Melton South is Melbourne’s most expensive suburb to rent a house.

Where is Melbourne’s most expensive suburb to buy a house?

As of May 2025, Toorak is Melbourne’s most expensive suburb to buy a house.

Where is Melbourne’s most expensive suburb to buy a unit?

As of May 2025, Beaumaris is Melbourne’s most expensive suburb to buy a unit