5 reasons why Australia's inflation rate will not follow the US uptick
Kanebridge News
Share Button

5 reasons why Australia’s inflation rate will not follow the US uptick

The latest US inflation figures came in hotter than expected

By Bronwyn Allen
Tue, Apr 16, 2024 2:09pmGrey Clock 2 min

Inflation in Australia is unlikely to follow last week’s surprising uptick in the United States, according to AMP deputy chief economist Diana Mousina. US inflation increased 0.4 percent in March, pushing the yearly inflation rate to 3.5 percent, up from 3.2 percent in February. This is well above the US Federal Reserves 2 percent target, and prompted analysts to push back their predictions on the timing of a US interest rate cut. The official US cash rate range is currently 5.25 to 5.5 percent.

Australian and US inflation are now at similar levels. Our annual inflation rate is currently 3.4 percent, as per the monthly report for February. The rate was the same in January. Ms Mousina said Australian inflation peaked in December 2022, which was about six months after the US economy. While analysts have been watching US trends ever since for insights as to what may happen here, Ms Mousina said it was unlikely that Australia would also record an uptick in inflation for March.

we think Australian inflation will see a further slowing from here, unlike the recent pattern in the US, Ms Mousina said. There are five key reasons for this, starting with how domestic conditions in the US and Australia have been impacted differently by monetary policy. Firstly, most US home loans are on long-term fixed interest rates. Most Australian mortgages are on variable rates, so mortgage repayments have lifted considerably and eaten into household budgets for living expenses.

US outstanding mortgage rates have risen by 0.5 percentage points, compared to 3.2 percentage points in Australia. This is despite Australia increasing interest rates by 1 percent less than the US. As a result, households are in worse shape in Australia than the US.

Ms Mousina said retail trading, real household disposable income and consumer confidence were down in Australia but rising in the US. A softer consumer weighs on spending and inflation,” she said.

Ms Mousina also said high US wages growth was keeping services inflation elevated. Australian wages growth has also increased, to its highest level since 2009, but is likely to taper off from here. “… the unemployment rate is expected to lift as labour demand has slowed,” she said. Softer wages growth in 2024 will see a softening in services inflation.

Prices in regular US price surveys have recently recorded an uptick, while prices in Australia have been trending down. Additionally, Australian pipeline inflation pressure, which gives a four-month lead on inflation trends, continues to head lower. Pipeline pressure is measured using energy and agricultural commodities prices, shipping rates, price surveys, advertised salaries on Seek and the China Producer Price Index. “… when we look at our Australian pipeline indicator, there is still a further slowing in inflation likely to occur, whereas progress in the US inflation indicator has stalled,” Ms Mousina said.

The last reason why Australia is unlikely to record an uptick in inflation is technical differences in the measurement of inflation between the two countries. The US CPI data has a high weighting to housing at 33 percent, including both rents and ‘owners equivalent rentwhich reflects property values. In Australia, only rents are included in the CPI index, with a weighting of just 5.8 percent. Both rents and owners equivalent rent have had high inflation in the US,” she said. “If Australia had a higher weighting to rents, then services inflation would remain higher for longer, as very elevated Australian population growth is keeping rental inflation high.



MOST POPULAR

From elevated skincare to handcrafted home pieces, this year’s most thoughtful gifts go beyond the expected.

A haven for hedge-fund titans and Hollywood grandees, Greenwich is one of the world’s most expensive residential enclaves, where eye-watering prices meet unapologetic grandeur.

Related Stories
Lifestyle
Studies Suggest Red Meat May Help Prevent Alzheimer’s
By ALLYSIA FINLEY 21/04/2026
Lifestyle
ASTON MARTIN VANQUISH TAKES TOP HONOURS AT CAR OF THE YEAR
By Jeni O'Dowd 20/04/2026
Lifestyle
THE MOTHER’S DAY EDIT: GIFTS THAT FEEL PERSONAL, NOT PREDICTABLE
By Jeni O'Dowd 15/04/2026
Studies Suggest Red Meat May Help Prevent Alzheimer’s

At least for people who carry the APOE4 genetic variant, a juicy steak could keep the brain healthy.

By ALLYSIA FINLEY
Tue, Apr 21, 2026 3 min

Must even steak be politicised? The American Heart Association recently recommended eating more “plant-based” protein in a move to counter the Health and Human Services Department’s new guidelines calling for more red meat. 

Few would argue that eating a Big Mac a day is good for you.  

On the other hand, growing evidence, including a study last month in the Journal of the American Medical Association, suggests that eating more meat—particularly unprocessed red meat—can reduce the risk of Alzheimer’s in the quarter or so of people with a particular genetic predisposition. 

The APOE4 gene variant is one of the biggest risk factors for Alzheimer’s.  

You inherit one copy of the APOE gene from each parent. The most common variant is APOE3; the least is APOE2.  

The latter carries a lower risk of Alzheimer’s, while the former is neutral. A quarter of people carry one copy of the APOE4 variant, and about 2% carry two. 

APOE4 is more common among people with Northern European and African ancestry. In Europe the variant increases with latitude, and is present in as many as 27% of people in northern countries versus 4% in southern ones. God smiled on the Italians and Greeks. 

For unknown reasons, the APOE4 variant increases the risk of Alzheimer’s far more for women than men.  

Women’s risk multiplies roughly fourfold if they have one copy and tenfold if they have two. Men with a single copy show little if any higher risk, while those with two face four times the risk. 

What makes APOE4 so pernicious? Scientists don’t know exactly, but the variant is also associated with higher cholesterol levels—even among thin people who eat healthily.  

Scientists have found that cholesterol builds up in brain cells of APOE4 carriers, which can disrupt communications between neurons and generate amyloid plaque, an Alzheimer’s hallmark. 

The Heart Association’s recommendation to eat less red meat may be sound advice for people with high cholesterol caused by indulgent diets.  

But a diet high in red meat may be better for the brains of APOE4 carriers. 

In the JAMA study, researchers at Sweden’s Karolinska Institute examined how diet, particularly meat consumption, affects dementia risk among seniors with the different APOE variants.  

Higher consumption of meat, especially unprocessed red meat, was associated with significantly lower dementia risk for APOE4 carriers. 

APOE4 carriers who consumed the most meat—the equivalent of 4.5 ounces a day—were no more likely to develop dementia than noncarriers. ( 

The study controlled for other variables that are known to affect Alzheimer’s risk including sex, age, physical activity, smoking, alcohol consumption and education.) 

APOE4 carriers who ate the most unprocessed meat were at significantly lower risk of dying over the study’s 15-year period and had lower cholesterol than carriers who ate less. Go figure. Noncarriers, however, didn’tenjoy similar benefits from eating more red meat. 

The study’s findings are consistent with two large U.K. studies.  

One found that each additional 50 grams of red meat (equivalent to half a hamburger patty) that an APOE4 carrier consumed each day was associated with a 36% reduced risk of dementia.  

The other found that older women who carried the APOE4 variant and consumed at least one serving a day of unprocessed red meat had a cognitive advantage over carriers who ate less than half a serving, and that this advantage was of roughly equal magnitude to the cognitive disadvantage observed among APOE4 carriers in general. 

In all three studies, eating more red meat appeared to negate the increased genetic risk of APOE4.  

Perhaps one reason men with the variant are at lower Alzheimer’s risk than women is that men eat more red meat.  

These findings might cause chagrin to women who rag their husbands about ordering the rib-eye instead of the heart-healthy salmon. 

But remember, the cognitive benefits of eating more red meat appear isolated to APOE4 carriers.  

Nutrition is complicated, and categorical recommendations—other than perhaps to avoid nutritionally devoid foods—would best be avoided by governments and health bodies.  

Readers can order an at-home test from any number of companies to screen for the APOE4 variant. 

The Swedish researchers hypothesize that APOE4 carriers may be evolutionarily adapted to carnivorous diets, since the variant is believed to have emerged between one million and six million years ago during a “hypercarnivorous” period in human history.  

The other two APOE variants originated more recently, during eras when humans ate more plants. 

APOE4 carriers may absorb more nutrients from meat than plants, the researchers surmise. Vitamin B12—low levels have been associated with cognitive decline—isn’t naturally present in plant-based foods but is abundant in red meat. 

 Foods high in phytates (such as grains and beans) can interfere with absorption of zinc and iron (also high in red meat), which naturally declines with age. So maybe don’t chuck your steak yet. 

MOST POPULAR

ABC Bullion has launched a pioneering investment product that allows Australians to draw regular cashflow from their precious metal holdings.

Many of the most-important events have slipped from our collective memories. But their impacts live on.

Related Stories
Property
A 92nd-Floor Penthouse With 360-Degree City Views Is Brooklyn’s Highest Residence
By BILL CARY 02/02/2026
Property
WATERFRONT ICON RETURNS TO MARKET
By Kirsten Craze 20/03/2026
Lifestyle
Inside The Craft-Led Luxury Dog Brand Changing Pet Style
By Jeni O'Dowd 18/03/2026
0
    Your Cart
    Your cart is emptyReturn to Shop