5 reasons why Australia’s inflation rate will not follow the US uptick
The latest US inflation figures came in hotter than expected
The latest US inflation figures came in hotter than expected
Inflation in Australia is unlikely to follow last week’s surprising uptick in the United States, according to AMP deputy chief economist Diana Mousina. US inflation increased 0.4 percent in March, pushing the yearly inflation rate to 3.5 percent, up from 3.2 percent in February. This is well above the US Federal Reserve’s 2 percent target, and prompted analysts to push back their predictions on the timing of a US interest rate cut. The official US cash rate range is currently 5.25 to 5.5 percent.
Australian and US inflation are now at similar levels. Our annual inflation rate is currently 3.4 percent, as per the monthly report for February. The rate was the same in January. Ms Mousina said Australian inflation peaked in December 2022, which was about six months after the US economy. While analysts have been watching US trends ever since for insights as to what may happen here, Ms Mousina said it was unlikely that Australia would also record an uptick in inflation for March.
“… we think Australian inflation will see a further slowing from here, unlike the recent pattern in the US,” Ms Mousina said. There are five key reasons for this, starting with how domestic conditions in the US and Australia have been impacted differently by monetary policy. Firstly, most US home loans are on long-term fixed interest rates. Most Australian mortgages are on variable rates, so mortgage repayments have lifted considerably and eaten into household budgets for living expenses.
“US outstanding mortgage rates have risen by 0.5 percentage points, compared to 3.2 percentage points in Australia. This is despite Australia increasing interest rates by 1 percent less than the US. As a result, households are in worse shape in Australia than the US.”
Ms Mousina said retail trading, real household disposable income and consumer confidence were down in Australia but rising in the US. “A softer consumer weighs on spending and inflation,” she said.
Ms Mousina also said high US wages growth was keeping services inflation elevated. Australian wages growth has also increased, to its highest level since 2009, but is likely to taper off from here. “… the unemployment rate is expected to lift as labour demand has slowed,” she said. “Softer wages growth in 2024 will see a softening in services inflation.”
Prices in regular US price surveys have recently recorded an uptick, while prices in Australia have been trending down. Additionally, Australian pipeline inflation pressure, which gives a four-month lead on inflation trends, continues to head lower. Pipeline pressure is measured using energy and agricultural commodities prices, shipping rates, price surveys, advertised salaries on Seek and the China Producer Price Index. “… when we look at our Australian pipeline indicator, there is still a further slowing in inflation likely to occur, whereas progress in the US inflation indicator has stalled,” Ms Mousina said.
The last reason why Australia is unlikely to record an uptick in inflation is technical differences in the measurement of inflation between the two countries. The US CPI data has a high weighting to housing at 33 percent, including both rents and ‘owners’ equivalent rent’ which reflects property values. In Australia, only rents are included in the CPI index, with a weighting of just 5.8 percent. “Both rents and owners’ equivalent rent have had high inflation in the US,” she said. “If Australia had a higher weighting to rents, then services inflation would remain higher for longer, as very elevated Australian population growth is keeping rental inflation high.”
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Futureproof your home and maximise your return with design directions that focus on contemporary ways of living
Looking to build, or renovate, a home in 2024? You’re not alone. According to a recent study from Resolve Finance, over a third of Australian homeowners are planning to renovate their current properties in the next 12 months. And if the Federal Government achieves its ambitious goal of delivering 1.2 million new dwellings over the next five years, there will be many new home owners looking to build their dream home in 2024 and beyond.
But before tackling such a behemoth task, considering all the latest—and future—architectural trends is pivotal in your new build’s success. Award-winning architect and interior designer, Georgina Wilson said sustainability will be at the forefront for many interested in energy efficiency and saving money on power bills.
“Elements of passive design are moving into the mainstream. Improvements in the technology with double glazing, building wrapping and insulation are meaning that more people have access to these materials,” Ms Wilson said. “Solar has proven itself and homeowners are now looking for other ways to make their home more efficient.”
The following eight trends reflect a growing emphasis on sustainability, flexibility, and wellbeing in residential architecture, catering to the evolving needs and preferences of homeowners in 2024.
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1). Consider your colour palette
The colours you use say everything about the type of spaces you want to foster, whether they be bright and warm, dark and moody, neutral — the list goes on. If we’re looking to trends, earthy, calming neutrals are in — think brown, beige and eucalyptus green. Colours that feel natural and soft, but welcoming provide an inviting environment that’s easy to live with.
However, interior designer and stylist, Jono Fleming said contrast is important to create interest and one of the most powerful ways to do this is through colour.
“It doesn’t have to be a big splash of colour, it could be introduced through smaller decorative objects, a statement furniture piece or an artwork, but the colour should add balance to the space,” he said.
2). Modern, outdoor living areas
Ever since the COVID pandemic and subsequent lockdowns, expanding living spaces to the outdoors has gained in popularity. Features like plant-filled front porches, outdoor kitchens, fire pits, and cosy seating areas create inviting spaces for relaxation and entertainment for all family members.
“There has definitely been a greater appreciation for outdoor living spaces since COVID,” said Ms Wilson. “Outdoor fabrics and mechanisms for shading have greatly improved in recent years allowing people to fully embrace seamless indoor/outdoor living.”
3). The integration of smart technology
Integrating smart home technology throughout your home continues to gain traction with homeowners. As we increasingly look to rely on technology to make our lives all the more seamless, smart technology throughout allows homeowners to control a variety of tasks and zones remotely, enhancing convenience, security, and even energy efficiency. This can include controlled heating and cooling from your phone, automatic lightning, voice control commands, and more.
“The technology for seamless appliances has come a long way. At Salone del Mobile Milano this year, we experienced the new Gaggenau fully integrated induction bench top, which in terms of kitchen design, is a huge advancement,” said Ms Wilson.
Gaggenau, the German manufacturer of high-end home appliances, is at the forefront of smart home technology, paving the way for intelligent cooking appliances that learn and adapt to user preferences. Gaggenau’s essential induction cooktop, the functional and seamless cooking surface Ms Wilson speaks of (pictured below), is designed to be “seamlessly integrated into a kitchen’s worktop”.
4). Health and wellness features
Prioritising health and wellness in 2024 is paramount, and home design that can include features like air purification systems, dedicated exercise spaces, recovering hubs—like saunas and ice baths—and relaxation areas to support physical and mental wellbeing will go a long way in not only adding value to your home, but providing a space that is architecturally on-trend and with the times.
“I’m seeing a lot of demand for in-built saunas, both traditional and infrared, particularly in the homes of our US clients,” said Ms Wilson.
“Bathroom suppliers such as Kohler, Duravit and Toto are offering increasingly sophisticated products that incorporate an almost spa-like experience in your at home bathroom. Examples of this are fantastic multi-nozzle showers and steam showers, Japanese toilets incorporating bidet technology, and elegant and serene bathroom furniture that can be fully customised for clients.”
5). Sustainability is key
A common goal among homeowners and future buyers alike is to own a property that is flexible enough grow with them. Futureproofing your home with sustainable measures will not only ensure its longevity, but it will help homeowners to play their part in addressing their carbon footprint.
“The current cost of living crisis is leading to a lot more multigenerational living, meaning families are prioritising durable materials and sustainable power sources, like solar,” said Ms Wilson.
Consider adding solar panels to your home, utilising sustainable materials in any upcoming renovations or builds, like recycled timber, and utilising energy-efficient lighting throughout your home.
6). Minimalist design
Do as the Scandinavians do – introduce minimalist design into your home. Embrace simplicity and clean lines with a focus on interior design. Decluttering in main living spaces is surprisingly effective. Adopting the approach of ‘Swedish Death Cleaning’, which essentially involves slowly ridding your house of unwanted or unused items once you reach the other side of 50, will also help you whittle your possessions down to the beautiful and the necessary.
Minimalist design in home appliances is also making a resurgence in 2024 according to Ms Wilson.
“What I’ve been interested to see at Salone del Mobile Milano in 2024 is a huge return to stainless steel finishes, and more and more seamless integration of appliances,” said Ms Wilson.
“We’re seeing timeless materials in reimagined applications: copper baths and stainless steel basins are emerging trends with the potential to be timeless. These materials are so practical, and pair beautifully with natural stone and timbers.”
Above all, maximising different spaces through efficient and effective storage options will also do wonders in achieving that minimal aesthetic.
7). Multifunctional spaces
As we move towards greater efficiency of space, it’s useful to consider multifunctional spaces throughout your home. In 2024, we are seeing more homes incorporate multifunctional spaces and trends. This includes using multifunctional furniture in main bedrooms or living spaces—furniture that can act as storage ottomans or convertible sofa beds—as well as transforming wasted space, and open up indoor to outdoor living.
“Multifunctional spaces in homes are a great idea. Particularly in small homes, it makes a lot of sense to achieve maximum value out of the limited space available. The way you use a space can change as your family evolves over time, so it’s always good to design in such a way that allows for flexibility,” said Ms Wilson.
“Make sure that the functions you allocate to a single room are compatible with the space available and each other. For example, it works really well to combine a living room, a dining room and a kitchen in one open plan space because these are all public, lively spaces. It doesn’t work very well to combine, say a study, with these spaces because you will want control over the visual and acoustic privacy in a study.”
8). Think about biophilic design
A buzz word among architects and interior designers, biophilic design is one of the strongest trends in 2024 thanks to its benefits in garnering a sense of harmony and connection between your home and the environment. Consider incorporating natural elements into home design, such as large windows to maximise natural light, indoor gardens, and natural materials like wood and stone.
“Biophilic design is a timeless principle, in that home design should connect people in a positive way with their natural environment by maximising access to, and the ability to control, natural light and ventilation, which really helps to create an enjoyable (and healthier) environment to live in,” said Ms Wilson.
“Increasingly, there is a demand for this positive relationship to the natural environment; by leaning on the principles of biophilic design, you can create a haven and retreat at home that can help with the daily stresses of life.”
Ways to foster that indoor-outdoor connection can be through the addition of smaller internal courtyard spaces filled with greenery, or incorporating indoor plants and adding greenery into different rooms throughout your home.
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Consumers are going to gravitate toward applications powered by the buzzy new technology, analyst Michael Wolf predicts
This stylish family home combines a classic palette and finishes with a flexible floorplan