The top suburbs where population growth is driving up property values
While demand for affordable housing is attracting more Australians to fringe suburbs, some are seeing value in regional tourist hotspots
3 min
Australia’s population growth hot spots are mostly affordable property markets on the outskirts of major cities and in regional areas, according to an analysis by PropTrack. But homes may not remain affordable for long, with most of these areas recording above-average price growth over the past five years.
Australia’s population grew by 2.5 percent to 26.8 million people over the 12 months ending 30 September, according to the latest figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). This was an annual increase of 659,800 people, with migrants making up 83 percent of the increase.
REA economist Megan Lieu said home prices in Australia’s population growth hot spots are growing at an above-average pace due to strong buyer demand. However, median prices in the SA3 regions she analysed are still more affordable than their nearest capital cities or major regional cities.
Wyndham, on the western edge of Melbourne, recorded the strongest population growth over the past five years with almost 41,000 more people living there today compared to June 2018. In NSW, Blacktown–North in western Sydney had the highest growth with almost 36,000 new residents. In Queensland, Ormeau–Oxenford in the Gold Coast’s northern suburbs gained almost 28,000 new residents, with Ms Lieu noting it was a popular market with interstate and international migrants.
Ms Lieu said the worst housing affordability in three decades may be driving population growth in areas with lower median values.
“A potential factor contributing to this trend is that homes in a majority of these regions are generally priced lower than their broader greater capital city area (GCCSA),” Ms Lieu said. “This is evident when we look at the current median sale price of homes in these SA3s. Over 60 percent of them sold for less than the median in their respective city or regional area.”
Ms Lieu said other drivers of these areas’ strong population growth could be local councils zoning large swathes of land for home development.
“They tend to be in peripheries of cities where more new homes are being built relative to other areas. The increase in the supply of homes could be contributing to more competitive pricing.”
However, these competitive prices are attracting more demand than supply, leading to strong price growth. “All except four of the SA3 regions have experienced larger price growth in the past five years compared to their corresponding city or regional area,” Ms Lieu said.
The price growth differential is more than 20 percent in some regions, such as Rouse Hill-McGraths Hill in Sydney, Ormeau-Oxenford in Queensland and Fleurieu-Kangaroo Island in South Australia.
Median house prices have moved up dramatically in many of the individual suburbs within the SA3 population hot spots. For example, the median house price in the suburb of Ormeau on the Gold Coast in Queensland is $830,500, according to PropTrack data. It has risen 7.9 percent over the past 12 months and skyrocketed 68 percent over the past five years. The median house price in the suburb of Rouse Hill in north-west Sydney is $977,500, down 2.5 percent over the past year but up 30 percent over five years. The median price in the Melbourne outskirts suburb of Wyndham Vale is $585,000, up 2.5 percent over the past year and 26 percent over five years.
Another factor driving strong price growth may be the increasing lifestyle appeal of these particular areas over the past five years. For example, Ormeau is close to Westfield Coomera, which opened in 2018, and has benefitted from numerous M1 road upgrades between Brisbane and the Gold Coast. Rouse Hill has its own station on the Sydney Metro Northwest rail line, which began running in 2019.
Ms Lieu said it was likely that more Australians would seek cheaper homes in city outskirts areas and the regions as property values continue to grow amid a continued forecast housing undersupply.
“With supply unable to meet continued strong housing demand, home prices may experience further upward pressure,” Ms Lieu said.
Top 3 areas for highest population growth over 5 years
NSW
Blacktown–North, Sydney 36,233 (new residents since 2018)
Bringelly-Green Valley, Sydney 27,741
Rouse Hill-McGraths Hill, Sydney 21,821
VICTORIA
Wyndham, Melbourne 40,833
Melton-Bacchus Marsh, Melbourne 35,818
Casey-South, Melbourne 33,191
QUEENSLAND
Ormeau-Oxenford, Gold Coast 27,719
Brisbane Inner, Brisbane 16,465
Springfield-Redbank, Ipswich 15,326
SOUTH AUSTRALIA
Playford, Adelaide 6,997
Charles Sturt, Adelaide 6,410
Fleurieu-Kangaroo Island, regional South Australia 5,504
WESTERN AUSTRALIA
Swan, Perth 16,959
Wanneroo, Perth 14,885
Mandurah, regional Western Australia 11,156
TASMANIA
Hobart-North East, Hobart 2,723
Devonport, regional Tasmania 1,926
North East, Launceston-North East 1,728
Source: PropTrack, SA3 regions with highest population growth over 5 years
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2 min
Australia’s retail property sector entered 2026 as the strongest performing commercial asset class, but rising geopolitical risks and cost pressures are beginning to test its resilience, according to new research from Knight Frank.
The latest Australian Retail Review shows the sector rode a wave of consumer spending and constrained supply through 2025, delivering total returns of 9.2 per cent and driving transaction volumes up 43 per cent year-on-year to $14.4 billion.
That momentum carried into early 2026, with around $3.6 billion in deals recorded in the first quarter alone.
“Retail clearly emerged as the standout commercial property performer in 2025,” said Knight Frank Senior Economist, Research & Consulting Alistair Read.
“Improving household spending, limited new supply and stronger leasing fundamentals combined to drive better income growth and renewed investor confidence in the sector.”
Spending rebound drives retail strength
A lift in household spending has been central to the sector’s performance. Consumer spending rose 4.6 per cent year-on-year to February 2026, supported by easing inflation and improving real incomes.
That shift flowed directly into retailer performance, with average EBIT margins across major retailers rising to 8.9 per cent in the first half of 2026, their strongest level in several years.
“Stronger consumer spending was critical in restoring momentum to the retail sector,” Mr Read said.
“Retailers have generally been better able to absorb costs, rebuild margins and support sustainable rental outcomes, particularly in higher-quality centres.”
Improved trading conditions also pushed leasing spreads up 4.2 per cent in 2025, reinforcing income growth and supporting capital values.
Geopolitical tensions begin to bite
But the outlook has become more complicated. The report warns that escalating conflict in the Middle East and its impact on fuel prices, supply chains and interest rates could weigh heavily on consumer spending.
“Higher fuel prices, flow-on cost pressures across supply chains, and recent interest rate increases are collectively squeezing household budgets, and early consumer sentiment data suggests confidence is already softening,” Mr Read said.
“While household balance sheets remain generally resilient, heightened uncertainty over future costs is likely to weigh on spending — particularly in discretionary categories — in the months ahead.”
The impact is already being felt in investment activity. While the year began strongly, transaction volumes slowed in March as investors paused amid the uncertainty.
“Early indicators suggest elevated uncertainty has already begun to affect the market. While retail investment enjoyed its strongest start to a year in a decade, with nearly $3 billion transacted by the end of February, activity stalled in March, as investors took a pause amid elevated uncertainty,” Mr Read said.
Solid foundations support medium-term outlook
Despite the near-term headwinds, Knight Frank maintains that the sector’s underlying fundamentals remain strong. Limited new supply, high construction costs and population growth are expected to continue supporting rental growth over the medium term.
“Retail has entered this period of uncertainty from a position of strength,” Mr Read said.
“Supply-side constraints, population growth and improving income fundamentals remain powerful structural supports for the sector.”
The report highlights several trends shaping the year ahead, including steady yields as interest rates rise, mounting pressure on tenant margins, continued outperformance of prime centres, the growing need for logistics integration, and risks linked to underinvestment in capital expenditure.
For now, retail remains a sector with momentum, but one increasingly at the mercy of forces far beyond the shopping centre.
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