Nation’s Experts Split On Cash Rate Rise
A survey of economists unsure of rate rise before the end of 2022.
2 min
While almost all 36 panellists surveyed in this month’s Finder RBA Cash Rate Survey (94%) expect a cash rate hold to be announced in February, the same sentiment is not held for the year ahead.
More than half (58%) are predicting a rise this year while just 1 in 5 of the experts panelled expect the rise to happen in the first half of the year.
Graham Cooke, head of consumer research at Finder, noted a shift in expectations of a rate rise in 2022.
“A rate rise this year has moved from an ‘impossibility’ to a ‘most likely’,” said Mr Cooke.
“With some lenders indicating multiple rises to come, Australian borrowers who purchased over the last few years of rock-bottom rates may be in for a shock when their mortgage costs start to climb.”
Many experts have cited the concern of inflation and the unemployment figures reaching the RBA’s target ahead of schedule as a reason to get moving.
Ben Udy, from Capital Economics thinks that the first rate hike will come in the middle part of the year.
“While the RBA has previously said that it would not raise rates until wage growth was at least 3%, we think the strength in underlying inflation along with the tight labour market will convince the Bank to hike rates first in August and lift rates to 1.25% by the end of 2023,” Udy said.
However, opposing Ben Udy, Saul Elake of Corinna Economic Advisory states three reasons we won’t see a rate rise this year.
“One, underlying inflation has only just entered the target band after more than 5 years below it, and remains lower than in most other advanced economies.
“Two, wage inflation is nowhere near the 3.5% the RBA has said it needs to be to be consistent with inflation being ‘sustainably’ within the target band.
“Three, the RBA has a looser inflation target than most other ‘advanced’ economy central banks,” Eslake said.
It begs the question, how much will average mortgages rise when rates do.
Almost all experts believe that rates have hit rock bottom (96%).
Graham Cooke’s advice is to lock in a loan at a very low rate.
“The days of sub-2% home loans are almost behind us, and may never return. If you are in a position to lock on a very low rate with your current lender, or by switching, there has never been a better time to do it,” Mr Cooke said.
Westpac is expecting the RBA to raise the cash rate 6 times in the next 2 years, starting in August this year.
This would bring the official cash rate up from 0.10% at present to 1.50% in 2 years’ time – a jump of 1.4% on what homeowners are paying now.
On a $500,000 home loan, a rate hike from 2.00% to 3.40% would cost homeowners $369 more per month or $4,428 more per year.
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The Republican nominee says it would help bring down home prices, though these buyers account for a fraction of U.S. home sales
3 min
Former President Donald Trump said he would ban undocumented immigrants from obtaining home mortgages, a move he indicated would help ease home prices even though these buyers account for a tiny fraction of U.S. home sales.
Home loans to undocumented people living in the U.S. are legal but they aren’t especially common. Between 5,000 and 6,000 mortgages of this kind were issued last year, according to estimates from researchers at the Urban Institute in Washington.
Overall, lenders issued more than 3.4 million mortgages to all home purchasers in 2023, federal government data show.
Trump, the Republican presidential nominee, made his comments Thursday during a policy speech to the Economic Club of New York in Manhattan.
Housing remains a top economic issue for voters during this presidential election. Rent and home prices grew at historic rates during the pandemic and mortgage rates climbed to levels not seen in more than two decades. A July Wall Street Journal poll showed that voters rank housing as their second-biggest inflation concern after groceries.
Both major candidates for the 2024 presidential election have made appeals to voters on housing during recent campaign stops, though the issue has so far featured more prominently in Vice President Kamala Harris ’s campaign.
Trump has blamed immigrants for many of the nation’s woes, including crime and unemployment. Now, he is pointing to immigrants as a cause of the nation’s housing-affordability crisis. Yet some affordable-housing advocates and real-estate professionals said Trump’s mortgage proposal would fail to bring relief to priced-out home buyers.
“It’s unfortunate that given the significant housing affordability crisis that is widely acknowledged across most partisan lines, we are arguing about a minuscule segment of the market,” said David Dworkin, president of the National Housing Conference, an affordable-housing advocacy group.
Gary Acosta, chief executive of the National Association of Hispanic Real Estate Professionals, a trade organization, said, “It’s just another effort to vilify immigrants and to continue to scapegoat them for any issues that we have here in the United States.”
A Trump campaign spokeswoman didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.
Undocumented immigrants in the U.S. can obtain an obscure type of mortgage designed for taxpayers without Social Security numbers, most of whom are Hispanic. The passage of the USA Patriot Act of 2001 allowed banks to use identification numbers from the Internal Revenue Service as an alternative to Social Security, extending a number of financial services to people without legal status for the first time.
Mortgage loans for undocumented immigrants are typically higher interest and borrowers include legal residents who have undocumented spouses, Acosta said. Lenders include regional credit unions and community-development financial institutions.
In his speech, Trump said that “the flood” of undocumented immigrants is driving up housing costs. “That’s why my plan will ban mortgages for illegal aliens,” he said.
Trump didn’t elaborate on how he would enact a ban on such loans.
Though mortgages for undocumented people living in the U.S. are relatively rare, residential real-estate purchases by foreign nationals are big business , especially in expensive coastal cities such as New York and Los Angeles. These sales have declined in recent years, however.
Close to half of foreign purchases are made by people residing abroad, while the other half are made by recent immigrants or residents on nonimmigrant visas, according to an annual survey by the National Association of Realtors. Many affluent foreigners buy U.S. homes with cash instead of obtaining mortgage financing.
In his Thursday speech, which focused mostly on other economic matters such as energy and taxation, Trump proposed other measures to bring down housing costs, including cutting regulations for builders and allowing more building on federal land. Similar ideas appeared in the housing policy outline Harris released in August .
The former president has spoken on housing-related issues in speeches at other recent campaign stops, including in Michigan last month, where he touted his administration’s 2020 overturn of a policy that had encouraged cities to reduce racial segregation .
“I keep the suburbs safe,” Trump said. “I stopped low-income towers from rising right alongside of their house. And I’m keeping the illegal aliens away from the suburbs.”
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