When to buy property in a slowing real estate market
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When to buy property in a slowing real estate market

Property prices have fallen in many parts of Australia but have we hit the bottom of the cycle? And should you buy now?

By Kirsten Craze
Fri, Mar 10, 2023 8:30amGrey Clock 4 min

 Buy low, sell high. It’s the mantra for any asset transaction — and real estate is no different. Short of investing in a crystal ball, switched on buyers study market cycles to get the best impression of what the medium to long term holds.

Past behaviour of a suburb or property type is one of the best indicators of future behaviour at a micro level, but there are also a number of macro factors to be taken into account.

Watching the ticking property clock

Australian real estate travels through property cycles, which traditionally last between seven to 10 years. However, individual cities and towns (and then suburbs or property types within those locations) can run an independent race from the rest of the country.

National property valuation advisory firm Herron Todd White publishes a monthly ‘property clock’ which takes a regular snapshot of where house and unit markets are sitting within the cycle, indicating a market peak, a bottom, and the transitions in between.

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“The property clock is meant to be a kind of ready reckoner, so you can make a swift general comparison about what different markets are doing,” says Kevin Brogan, National Director, Group Risk and Compliance of Herron Todd White.

Although common sense might suggest it would be wise not to buy in areas sitting at the peak “12 o’clock” position, Brogan says it’s not always that simple.

“If somebody in Sydney is looking at a property in Adelaide, they might see it sitting in a peak position, but they’ll also look at the price point and think ‘Well, I don’t mind because Adelaide looks very affordable’. A local might feel differently.”

By the end of 2022, Sydney and Melbourne sat on the declining side of the “property clock” after reaching their peak positions in February 2022 and December 2021 respectively. Purchasers might be temped to take a “wait and see” approach, but there is no one-size-fits-all answer.

“You’ve had an interest rate environment putting pressure on buyers, but if there’s sustained demand in the market because of economic and population growth, that’s going to have a positive impact across different market segments,” Brogan says, adding that certain property types can also buck the cyclical trends.

“Vacant land and properties requiring refurbishment have struggled because of escalating building costs and concerns around the durations of projects.

“Conversely, renovated properties are selling quite well even in Sydney and Melbourne. So it’s very tempting to just look at a geographical market — and at a high level it’s quite useful to do that — but if you’re on the verge of making a decision, you need to look at the sub market too.”

Timing the market…

Waiting for the market to hit rock bottom might feel like the right buying strategy, however chief economist for Ray White Group, Nerida Conisbee, warns even schooled experts can often only pinpoint the trough in retrospect.

“Markets can move really quickly. At the start of the pandemic some economists were suggesting a 30 per cent decline, and then suddenly it turned around and we saw a 30 per cent increase,” she says.

Ray White chief economist Nerida Conisbee

From the first Reserve Bank official cash rate increase in April 2022, prices across many Australian markets started to decline after a short sharp boom, but just how long (and where) negative movement will be seen in 2023 depends on several factors.

“It’s been a slowdown that really had to happen because property was getting really too expensive,” Conisbee says. 

“But what we’re seeing is quite different changes to property values depending on where you are. 

“There’s such a diversion in geographic conditions, so much so that when people talk about a 20 percent price drop there’s absolutely no way that will happen across Australia. Even the market that’s most likely to see that drop would be Sydney because of the extraordinary gains, but it’s not going to be all of Sydney. Prices are certainly not going to drop to bargain levels.”

She added that since the recent price correction had been brought around almost solely by interest rates increases, once they stop the tables could turn.

“Once we start to see interest rates peak, potentially around March, that’s the point at which prices will start to stabilise,” she says. “And if you look at other factors that typically lead to price decline, we’re actually seeing the opposite. Population growth is starting to ramp up again and migration is back. 

“If you try and wait for the bottom, you could quickly find yourself in a dramatically different situation and you might discover you’ve missed the boat.”

…Or time in the market

It is a real estate cliche, but time in the market is often better than timing the market, says Brogan. 

“Although timing can be important in terms of the transaction to enter the market, you also have to consider how long you intend to hold the property for,” he says. “If you’re looking for a quick in and out, then timing is critical, but if you’re looking to hold for a period of time, it’s a different story.

“Everyone loves a bargain, everyone loves to tell their friends how well they’ve done in any transaction, particularly with property. 

“It’s only human nature to want to minimise your outlay, and that thinking won’t necessarily do you any harm. Unless, of course, analysis paralysis means you hold out or don’t act at all and you miss out altogether.”

Conisbee said the mistake many bargain-hunting buyers make in a declining real estate market is holding out too long only to jump in with everyone else.

“Of course it’s great to buy at the bottom of the market,” she says. “Ultimately though, if you’re holding on long term it doesn’t matter when you buy in a cycle. The best time to buy is when you find the right home in the right location at a price you can afford.”



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The 60-Year-Old Real-Estate Agent Giving History Lessons on Instagram

Georgetown agent Jamie Peva blends history and real estate on Instagram, turning local stories into a powerful sales strategy.

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Wed, Aug 26, 2026 5 min

On a recent morning in Georgetown—Washington, D.C.’s oldest neighborhood—real-estate agent Jamie Peva strode down leafy N Street, brimming with historical tidbits.

Jackie Kennedy once lived on the street, he said. So did Ben Bradlee, former executive editor of the Washington Post, along with a former Miss America and a powerful U.S. Senator. Bradlee’s widow, author Sally Quinn, and Eric Schmidt, former CEO of Google, own stately homes there.

“I’ve seen a picture of Lyndon Johnson coming out of this house,” said Peva, passing a Federal-style brick mansion. “Also, the Beatles went to a lawn party here.”

Peva, a 60-year-old agent with Washington Fine Properties, has sold Georgetown real estate for over three decades, often traversing the neighborhood by bicycle. Of the roughly 2,500 houses in the historic neighborhood, he has been involved in the sale of 460, he estimated. A self-styled historian of the neighborhood, he knows stories behind its houses and their owners going back generations.

With a knack for lively storytelling, he shares his knowledge with some 37,500 Instagram followers, who have made Peva—sporting the bow ties he has worn since boarding school—an unlikely social-media influencer. Many of his followers are locals, and most have no plans to buy or sell real estate—until they do. It is then, according to Peva, that his spirited reels bring him to mind.

“It’s the digital version of a refrigerator magnet,” he said.

After Peva’s first video in November 2023, his eponymous Instagram account sparked a 10% increase in sales volume in the first year, and another 20% the next, he estimated. “It’s been very good for business, there is no question about it,” he said.

But Peva’s posts have also made him a local celebrity. As he walked down N street, the driver of a Mercedes station wagon slowed down to honk and wave. A lady walking a large dark gray dog stopped to ask what he was filming that day (a reel about a Colonial-era bottling plant.) Peva knew the dog from walking his two springers, Jumpy and Peggy-O, in the neighborhood.

“I need to make a video about the pooches of Georgetown,” he mused.

Jamie Peva shooting an upcoming Instagram reel on a historic house on P Street in Georgetown.
Jamie Peva shooting an upcoming Instagram reel on a historic house on P Street in Georgetown.

A growing number of real-estate agents now use social media to sell, and some have millions of followers with reels featuring ultraluxury pads, selling tips or reality TV-style reports on their daily lives. While Peva posts about his listings—and sometimes those of other agents—he mostly focuses on Georgetown history, local businesses and community events, saying his goal is to benefit both his business and the neighborhood.

“If we don’t find something genuinely interesting and worth sharing, we won’t do it,” said Peva’s daughter, Violet Peva, a New York social-media strategist who films, edits and posts his reels. “We cover many topics, not just real-estate information.”

Peva is originally from Connecticut, but has lived in Georgetown for over 30 years, currently in a cottage-style house with a white picket fence. Over the years, Georgetown has changed. The Georgetown Set, a powerful group of Cold War-era residents whose Sunday-night potluck dinners are said to have swayed U.S. policy, has long faded away. The community is still home to high-profile Washingtonians, including a Republican senator and several cabinet members. But it increasingly also attracts technology and finance executives, according to Peva. He now routinely signs nondisclosure agreements, ensuring privacy for wealthy clients. The shift has made him rethink his marketing approach.

“For years, a big part of our Georgetown business was made up of people who maintained a low profile,” he said. Real-estate agents were similarly low-key. Today, curb appeal is more important, he said, and agents are promoting themselves more. “As this change was underfoot, I was thinking that I needed to evolve myself too,” he said.

A street of colorful row houses in Georgetown.
A street of colorful row houses in Georgetown.

Though his own social-media use is mostly limited to following sailing accounts, he asked his daughter to help him post his listings online. Violet, now 26, started coming to D.C. once a month to film his reels. After an early video, on a condominium building called the Elliott, her sister Fern called her to report: “Daddy’s blowing up on Instagram,” Violet recalled. The reel got over 50,000 views. The next two each drew over 300,000. Peva’s most popular post ever, with over 838,000 views, was about the Grateful Dead playing in Georgetown. Sometimes, Peva interviews Georgetowners such as Quinn, the author, or Jamie Stachowski, the owner of a local butcher shop.

Peva’s daughter, Violet Peva, shoots, edits and posts his reels.
Peva’s daughter, Violet Peva, shoots, edits and posts his reels.

Peva, who majored in history in college, now spends up to two hours a day on research, usually in the morning while on his stationery bike. Online, he pores over old newspapers or the Library of Congress website, and he has a collection of articles and books—in and out of print—about Georgetown.

Companies often approach Peva for promotional posts, he said, but he turns them down, feeling that followers would lose interest in constant commercials. One exception is a recent paid post on Mount Vernon, the former home of George Washington. Peva wanted to share its history, he said, and didn’t want to lose the opportunity to another Instagrammer.

Anthony Arend, a professor at Georgetown University, has lived in his current home for 19 years without any plans to sell or buy real estate. But he follows Peva and often likes his posts.

Peva at one of his listings, a 1870s house on Prospect Street.
Peva at one of his listings, a 1870s house on Prospect Street.

“He is very charismatic, he is energetic, and he obviously knows a lot about the community,” said Arend, who has referred house-hunting friends to Peva.

One of Peva’s biggest deals—the $10.5 million sale of a 19th-century Italianate mansion—came after he made two 2024 reels featuring the property. In March, he sold the longtime O Street home of Tim and Jane Matz for $5.8 million after featuring it on his Instagram. Peva had showed them the home 25 years earlier, with Violet in a baby carrier on his back.

Last year, Kate Watts, 49, a digital consultant, called Peva to sell her late father’s three-bedroom house on Q Street; her husband had seen Peva on Instagram. In an October reel, Peva praised the architecture of the house, designed by modernist Hugh Newell Jacobsen. Halfway through, he mentioned an open house the next day, ending with an upbeat: “Did I also mention this house is for sale? $3.75 million!” The reel got 27,000 views, the open house was packed, and the buyers made an offer at the list price on the same day.

Peva often travels around Georgetown by bicycle.
Peva often travels around Georgetown by bicycle.
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