Australia set for a bumper spring selling season
It’s an unusually busy end to the traditionally quiet winter season as some grapple with ‘fixed rate cliff’ concerns
2 min
Property markets across the country are heating up ahead of the traditionally busy spring real estate season as seller uncertainty begins to thaw, with the trend expected to continue.
The latest PropTrack Listings Report shows the number of homes being brought to market surged by 9.2 per cent year-on-year in Sydney and 9.1 per cent in Melbourne.
While other capital cities were flat, the total volume of properties for sale edged upwards by 0.4 per cent in July.
“While part of the reason for that growth is that last July was a slower month, it is not the whole story,” PropTrack economist and report author Angus Moore said.
“There were more new listings in both Sydney and Melbourne in July than has been typical on average for this time of year over the past decade.”
Activity is likely to continue increasing over coming months after what was a particularly quiet start to the year, he said.
Seller activity would typically be low during the colder months. According to CoreLogic data, new listings historically drop by about five per cent between autumn and winter.
“In contrast, through the winter season to-date, new listings have risen by 13.2% this year, driven mostly by a 17.9% rise across the capital cities compared with a 4.6% rise in the flow of new listings across the combined regional areas of the country,” CoreLogic executive research director Tim Lawless said.
That apparent surge in vendor confidence can be attributed to recent rising home prices in almost all capital cities, Mr Lawless said.
July marked the seventh consecutive month that home prices nationally increased – now up 2.8 per cent across the year, according to PropTrack data.
But for some vendors, Mr Lawless said listing now could be a matter of necessity.
“Anecdotally, we may also be seeing more homeowners needing to sell amid a peak in the ‘fixed rate cliff’, elevated interest rates and high cost of living pressures.
“Data on mortgage arrears continues to show a historically small portion of borrowers are behind on their mortgage repayments, however we are likely to see mortgage stress becoming more evident through the second half of the year.”
The trend in rising listings will be a critical factor to monitor in coming months, he said.
“The spring season is shaping up to be a busy one, making up for the relatively sedate spring and early summer selling season last year.
“Through the recent recovery phase to-date, low available supply levels have been the key factor supporting value growth.
“A rise in stock levels could signal a further easing in the pace of capital gains across Australian housing markets as buyers benefit from a broader selection of available housing.”
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The Republican nominee says it would help bring down home prices, though these buyers account for a fraction of U.S. home sales
3 min
Former President Donald Trump said he would ban undocumented immigrants from obtaining home mortgages, a move he indicated would help ease home prices even though these buyers account for a tiny fraction of U.S. home sales.
Home loans to undocumented people living in the U.S. are legal but they aren’t especially common. Between 5,000 and 6,000 mortgages of this kind were issued last year, according to estimates from researchers at the Urban Institute in Washington.
Overall, lenders issued more than 3.4 million mortgages to all home purchasers in 2023, federal government data show.
Trump, the Republican presidential nominee, made his comments Thursday during a policy speech to the Economic Club of New York in Manhattan.
Housing remains a top economic issue for voters during this presidential election. Rent and home prices grew at historic rates during the pandemic and mortgage rates climbed to levels not seen in more than two decades. A July Wall Street Journal poll showed that voters rank housing as their second-biggest inflation concern after groceries.
Both major candidates for the 2024 presidential election have made appeals to voters on housing during recent campaign stops, though the issue has so far featured more prominently in Vice President Kamala Harris ’s campaign.
Trump has blamed immigrants for many of the nation’s woes, including crime and unemployment. Now, he is pointing to immigrants as a cause of the nation’s housing-affordability crisis. Yet some affordable-housing advocates and real-estate professionals said Trump’s mortgage proposal would fail to bring relief to priced-out home buyers.
“It’s unfortunate that given the significant housing affordability crisis that is widely acknowledged across most partisan lines, we are arguing about a minuscule segment of the market,” said David Dworkin, president of the National Housing Conference, an affordable-housing advocacy group.
Gary Acosta, chief executive of the National Association of Hispanic Real Estate Professionals, a trade organization, said, “It’s just another effort to vilify immigrants and to continue to scapegoat them for any issues that we have here in the United States.”
A Trump campaign spokeswoman didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.
Undocumented immigrants in the U.S. can obtain an obscure type of mortgage designed for taxpayers without Social Security numbers, most of whom are Hispanic. The passage of the USA Patriot Act of 2001 allowed banks to use identification numbers from the Internal Revenue Service as an alternative to Social Security, extending a number of financial services to people without legal status for the first time.
Mortgage loans for undocumented immigrants are typically higher interest and borrowers include legal residents who have undocumented spouses, Acosta said. Lenders include regional credit unions and community-development financial institutions.
In his speech, Trump said that “the flood” of undocumented immigrants is driving up housing costs. “That’s why my plan will ban mortgages for illegal aliens,” he said.
Trump didn’t elaborate on how he would enact a ban on such loans.
Though mortgages for undocumented people living in the U.S. are relatively rare, residential real-estate purchases by foreign nationals are big business , especially in expensive coastal cities such as New York and Los Angeles. These sales have declined in recent years, however.
Close to half of foreign purchases are made by people residing abroad, while the other half are made by recent immigrants or residents on nonimmigrant visas, according to an annual survey by the National Association of Realtors. Many affluent foreigners buy U.S. homes with cash instead of obtaining mortgage financing.
In his Thursday speech, which focused mostly on other economic matters such as energy and taxation, Trump proposed other measures to bring down housing costs, including cutting regulations for builders and allowing more building on federal land. Similar ideas appeared in the housing policy outline Harris released in August .
The former president has spoken on housing-related issues in speeches at other recent campaign stops, including in Michigan last month, where he touted his administration’s 2020 overturn of a policy that had encouraged cities to reduce racial segregation .
“I keep the suburbs safe,” Trump said. “I stopped low-income towers from rising right alongside of their house. And I’m keeping the illegal aliens away from the suburbs.”
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