American Cities Are Starting to Thrive Again. Just Not Near Office Buildings.

While office towers sit empty and nearby businesses struggle to pay their bills, residential neighbourhoods in America’s biggest cities are bustling again.

The pandemic and remote work have done little to dent the overall appeal of cities such as New York, Chicago and Los Angeles, foot-traffic and rent data show. Instead, the pandemic has shifted the urban centre of gravity, moving away from often sterile office districts to neighbourhoods with apartments, bars and restaurants.

“We’re now back to what cities really are—they’re not containers for working,” said Richard Florida, a specialist in city planning at the University of Toronto. “They’re places for people to live and connect with others.”

At the height of the pandemic, some analysts predicted that big cities would enter a downward spiral as remote workers sought more space and cheaper places to live. That happened to some degree early on, but it didn’t last. While big metropolitan areas lost population during the first year of the pandemic, partly because of a drop in immigration from abroad, the losses have since slowed or reversed, according to a Brookings Institution analysis of census data.

Many residential neighbourhoods benefit from remote work. As people spend more time at home, they frequent local shops, gyms and restaurants, boosting the economy of places such as Brooklyn, N.Y.’s Ditmas Park and Williamsburg, as well as Washington, D.C.’s Georgetown.

Data from Placer.ai, which tracks people’s movements based on cellphone usage, shows a stark divide between office and residential districts. In Downtown Los Angeles, visitor foot traffic is 30.7% below pre pandemic levels, while Downtown Chicago’s visitor foot traffic is 27.2% lower. By contrast, in the residential areas of South Glendale and Highland Park near Los Angeles and in Chicago’s residential Logan Square neighbourhood, visitor foot traffic has been rising and is nearly back to pre pandemic levels.

Food delivery also illustrates the shift. In 2019, almost 95% of New York City corporate lunch orders came from the city’s business district, according to food-order app Grubhub. This year, it is down to around 85%. In Chicago, the central business district accounted for more than 80% of corporate lunch orders in 2019 but just over 60% this year.

Rent data, meanwhile, attests to strong demand for city living. In Manhattan’s Greenwich Village, median housing rent was 30% higher in April 2023 than in April 2019, according to Jonathan Miller, chief executive of real-estate-appraisal firm Miller Samuel. In the Brentwood neighbourhood of Los Angeles, the median rent is up 63%.

Big cities still face serious challenges. Vacant office buildings leave downtown shops and restaurants with too few customers, while falling commercial building values threaten property-tax revenues.

“The increased vibrancy of great urban neighbourhoods will never be enough to offset the decline in property-tax revenues caused by remote work and the falling values of commercial office buildings,” Florida said.

Housing shortages have pushed up rents. In the long run, replacing offices with apartments can help revitalise urban centres, but that will take time. Conversions are also often tricky and expensive. Crime is up in many places. San Francisco in particular has been slower to recover and its retail has come under pressure.

Still, anyone walking through New York’s Jackson Heights or Silver Lake in Los Angeles looking for a deserted hellscape will be disappointed.

In Manhattan, the pandemic ignited a retail renaissance in the Soho neighbourhood, with availability there now at its lowest level since 2014, according to real-estate services firm Cushman & Wakefield.

“Before the pandemic there was a disconnect between landlord expectations and what tenants could pay,” said Steven Soutendijk, executive managing director for the firm’s retail division. “Covid sort of shook that up a little bit, in a good way.”

Andrea Loscalzo, owner of the Italian restaurant Salumeria Rosi in Manhattan’s Upper West Side, said his eatery is as busy as before the pandemic. Many regulars left the neighbourhood and never returned, but young professionals in their 30s and 40s moved in to replace them, he said.

“Even as families decamp, New York’s magnetic pull on the young and the talented is now more than ever,” Florida said.

In Chicago’s central business district, retail vacancy rose to a record high of 28% last year compared with about 15% in 2019, according to Stone Real Estate, a local brokerage. Crime in the city remains a concern, and in April, Walmart said it would close four of its eight locations in Chicago after annual losses nearly doubled in five years.

The city’s residential and tourist neighbourhoods are performing considerably better. In River North, which has a mixture of residential, office and hotels, retail vacancy dropped by more than 2 percentage points, driven largely by the strength of its restaurants, said John Vance, principal at Stone Real Estate.

“The city blocked off some streets to traffic so we could have expanded outdoor dining,” Vance said. “River North feels vibrant.”

Lakeview, a neighbourhood within walking distance of Lake Michigan and Wrigley Field, is bustling with young residents, families and Cubs fans, said resident Naomi Polinsky. Its restaurants and bars were packed on a recent Saturday night.

“We walked next door to the sports bar, and there was not a single place to sit. We walked across the street to the wine bar, completely crowded,” she said.

As Paris makes its final preparations for the Olympic games, its residents are busy with their own—packing their suitcases, confirming their reservations, and getting out of town.

Worried about the hordes of crowds and overall chaos the Olympics could bring, Parisians are fleeing the city in droves and inundating resort cities around the country. Hotels and holiday rentals in some of France’s most popular vacation destinations—from the French Riviera in the south to the beaches of Normandy in the north—say they are expecting massive crowds this year in advance of the Olympics. The games will run from July 26-Aug. 1.

“It’s already a major holiday season for us, and beyond that, we have the Olympics,” says Stéphane Personeni, general manager of the Lily of the Valley hotel in Saint Tropez. “People began booking early this year.”

Personeni’s hotel typically has no issues filling its rooms each summer—by May of each year, the luxury hotel typically finds itself completely booked out for the months of July and August. But this year, the 53-room hotel began filling up for summer reservations in February.

“We told our regular guests that everything—hotels, apartments, villas—are going to be hard to find this summer,” Personeni says. His neighbours around Saint Tropez say they’re similarly booked up.

As of March, the online marketplace Gens de Confiance (“Trusted People”), saw a 50% increase in reservations from Parisians seeking vacation rentals outside the capital during the Olympics.

Already, August is a popular vacation time for the French. With a minimum of five weeks of vacation mandated by law, many decide to take the entire month off, renting out villas in beachside destinations for longer periods.

But beyond the typical August travel, the Olympics are having a real impact, says Bertille Marchal, a spokesperson for Gens de Confiance.

“We’ve seen nearly three times more reservations for the dates of the Olympics than the following two weeks,” Marchal says. “The increase is definitely linked to the Olympic Games.”

Worried about the hordes of crowds and overall chaos the Olympics could bring, Parisians are fleeing the city in droves and inundating resort cities around the country.
Getty Images

According to the site, the most sought-out vacation destinations are Morbihan and Loire-Atlantique, a seaside region in the northwest; le Var, a coastal area within the southeast of France along the Côte d’Azur; and the island of Corsica in the Mediterranean.

Meanwhile, the Olympics haven’t necessarily been a boon to foreign tourism in the country. Many tourists who might have otherwise come to France are avoiding it this year in favour of other European capitals. In Paris, demand for stays at high-end hotels has collapsed, with bookings down 50% in July compared to last year, according to UMIH Prestige, which represents hotels charging at least €800 ($865) a night for rooms.

Earlier this year, high-end restaurants and concierges said the Olympics might even be an opportunity to score a hard-get-seat at the city’s fine dining.

In the Occitanie region in southwest France, the overall number of reservations this summer hasn’t changed much from last year, says Vincent Gare, president of the regional tourism committee there.

“But looking further at the numbers, we do see an increase in the clientele coming from the Paris region,” Gare told Le Figaro, noting that the increase in reservations has fallen directly on the dates of the Olympic games.

Michel Barré, a retiree living in Paris’s Le Marais neighbourhood, is one of those opting for the beach rather than the opening ceremony. In January, he booked a stay in Normandy for two weeks.

“Even though it’s a major European capital, Paris is still a small city—it’s a massive effort to host all of these events,” Barré says. “The Olympics are going to be a mess.”

More than anything, he just wants some calm after an event-filled summer in Paris, which just before the Olympics experienced the drama of a snap election called by Macron.

“It’s been a hectic summer here,” he says.

Hotels and holiday rentals in some of France’s most popular vacation destinations say they are expecting massive crowds this year in advance of the Olympics.
AFP via Getty Images

Parisians—Barré included—feel that the city, by over-catering to its tourists, is driving out many residents.

Parts of the Seine—usually one of the most popular summertime hangout spots —have been closed off for weeks as the city installs bleachers and Olympics signage. In certain neighbourhoods, residents will need to scan a QR code with police to access their own apartments. And from the Olympics to Sept. 8, Paris is nearly doubling the price of transit tickets from €2.15 to €4 per ride.

The city’s clear willingness to capitalise on its tourists has motivated some residents to do the same. In March, the number of active Airbnb listings in Paris reached an all-time high as hosts rushed to list their apartments. Listings grew 40% from the same time last year, according to the company.

With their regular clients taking off, Parisian restaurants and merchants are complaining that business is down.

“Are there any Parisians left in Paris?” Alaine Fontaine, president of the restaurant industry association, told the radio station Franceinfo on Sunday. “For the last three weeks, there haven’t been any here.”

Still, for all the talk of those leaving, there are plenty who have decided to stick around.

Jay Swanson, an American expat and YouTuber, can’t imagine leaving during the Olympics—he secured his tickets to see ping pong and volleyball last year. He’s also less concerned about the crowds and road closures than others, having just put together a series of videos explaining how to navigate Paris during the games.

“It’s been 100 years since the Games came to Paris; when else will we get a chance to host the world like this?” Swanson says. “So many Parisians are leaving and tourism is down, so not only will it be quiet but the only people left will be here for a party.”

American Cities Are Starting to Thrive Again. Just Not Near Office Buildings.

Neighbourhoods are benefiting from remote work