An interest rate pause, but the pain may not be over yet
Borrowers may need to dig deep before the year is out
2 min
The prospect of another interest rate hike rests on the outcome of the June quarter inflation figures, research director at property data analysts CoreLogic said.
CoreLogic’s Tim Lawless said while yesterday’s decision by the RBA Board to keep interest rates on hold was welcome news for mortgage holders, it was not an indication that rates had peaked.
“The June quarter inflation outcome, to be released late this month, will be critical in determining whether there are more rate hikes ahead,” he said.
Although most economists expected the RBA Board to increase the cash rate by another 25 basis points yesterday, governor Philip Lowe said the board recognised the need for a pause as the full impact of a four per cent rise in rates since May last year fully played out.
However, another rate rise is clearly still on the table.
“Inflation in Australia has passed its peak and the monthly CPI indicator for May showed a further decline,” Mr Lowe said. “But inflation is still too high and will remain so for some time yet.
“And if high inflation were to become entrenched in people’s expectations, it would be very costly to reduce later, involving even higher interest rates and a larger rise in unemployment. For these reasons, the Board’s priority is to return inflation to target within a reasonable timeframe.”
Navigating a pathway through managing inflation via additional rate rises without further limiting access to credit will be tricky, Mr Lawless said. At the same time, higher cost of living was having a negative impact on consumer confidence.
“Currently high interest rates and the potential for a hike in August could weigh further on consumer sentiment, which is already around GFC lows,” he said. “Historically consumer sentiment and housing market sales have been closely correlated.
“The combination of high cost of living pressures, negative real income growth and the high cost of debt have made it hard for borrowers to obtain credit approval, especially with lenders less willing to lend on high debt-to-income ratios, high loan-to-income ratios or on smaller deposits.”
He said the current level of interest rates would most likely expose more borrowers to mortgage arrears in the coming months, although it may not be as severe as some predicted.
“To date, the majority of borrowers have kept on track with their mortgage repayments, with APRA data for the March quarter indicating only half a percent of home loan borrows had fallen less than 90 days behind on their mortgage repayments,” Mr Lawless said.
“While the portion of borrowers falling behind on their repayment schedule is likely to rise, Australia’s unemployment rate is forecast to remain below 5 percent, which should help to prevent a material blowout in mortgage arrears.”
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The Republican nominee says it would help bring down home prices, though these buyers account for a fraction of U.S. home sales
3 min
Former President Donald Trump said he would ban undocumented immigrants from obtaining home mortgages, a move he indicated would help ease home prices even though these buyers account for a tiny fraction of U.S. home sales.
Home loans to undocumented people living in the U.S. are legal but they aren’t especially common. Between 5,000 and 6,000 mortgages of this kind were issued last year, according to estimates from researchers at the Urban Institute in Washington.
Overall, lenders issued more than 3.4 million mortgages to all home purchasers in 2023, federal government data show.
Trump, the Republican presidential nominee, made his comments Thursday during a policy speech to the Economic Club of New York in Manhattan.
Housing remains a top economic issue for voters during this presidential election. Rent and home prices grew at historic rates during the pandemic and mortgage rates climbed to levels not seen in more than two decades. A July Wall Street Journal poll showed that voters rank housing as their second-biggest inflation concern after groceries.
Both major candidates for the 2024 presidential election have made appeals to voters on housing during recent campaign stops, though the issue has so far featured more prominently in Vice President Kamala Harris ’s campaign.
Trump has blamed immigrants for many of the nation’s woes, including crime and unemployment. Now, he is pointing to immigrants as a cause of the nation’s housing-affordability crisis. Yet some affordable-housing advocates and real-estate professionals said Trump’s mortgage proposal would fail to bring relief to priced-out home buyers.
“It’s unfortunate that given the significant housing affordability crisis that is widely acknowledged across most partisan lines, we are arguing about a minuscule segment of the market,” said David Dworkin, president of the National Housing Conference, an affordable-housing advocacy group.
Gary Acosta, chief executive of the National Association of Hispanic Real Estate Professionals, a trade organization, said, “It’s just another effort to vilify immigrants and to continue to scapegoat them for any issues that we have here in the United States.”
A Trump campaign spokeswoman didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.
Undocumented immigrants in the U.S. can obtain an obscure type of mortgage designed for taxpayers without Social Security numbers, most of whom are Hispanic. The passage of the USA Patriot Act of 2001 allowed banks to use identification numbers from the Internal Revenue Service as an alternative to Social Security, extending a number of financial services to people without legal status for the first time.
Mortgage loans for undocumented immigrants are typically higher interest and borrowers include legal residents who have undocumented spouses, Acosta said. Lenders include regional credit unions and community-development financial institutions.
In his speech, Trump said that “the flood” of undocumented immigrants is driving up housing costs. “That’s why my plan will ban mortgages for illegal aliens,” he said.
Trump didn’t elaborate on how he would enact a ban on such loans.
Though mortgages for undocumented people living in the U.S. are relatively rare, residential real-estate purchases by foreign nationals are big business , especially in expensive coastal cities such as New York and Los Angeles. These sales have declined in recent years, however.
Close to half of foreign purchases are made by people residing abroad, while the other half are made by recent immigrants or residents on nonimmigrant visas, according to an annual survey by the National Association of Realtors. Many affluent foreigners buy U.S. homes with cash instead of obtaining mortgage financing.
In his Thursday speech, which focused mostly on other economic matters such as energy and taxation, Trump proposed other measures to bring down housing costs, including cutting regulations for builders and allowing more building on federal land. Similar ideas appeared in the housing policy outline Harris released in August .
The former president has spoken on housing-related issues in speeches at other recent campaign stops, including in Michigan last month, where he touted his administration’s 2020 overturn of a policy that had encouraged cities to reduce racial segregation .
“I keep the suburbs safe,” Trump said. “I stopped low-income towers from rising right alongside of their house. And I’m keeping the illegal aliens away from the suburbs.”
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