Australia has the world’s highest rate of mortgage pain
Australians are forced to allocate a higher percentage of income to mortgage repayments than any other developed nation
3 min
Homeowners in Australia allocate a higher share of their income to mortgage repayments than any other developed nation, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF). In its Global Financial Stability Report released this month, the IMF says Australian households allocated 15% of income to home loan repayments in December 2022, the highest level among all advanced economies.
Although official interest rates in Australia are slightly lower than other developed countries, we have the second highest level of household debt in the world – primarily due to high house prices – and 75% of our home loans are on variable rates. This makes Australia different to many other advanced countries where longer fixed-term home loan arrangements are the norm.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) says Australians are keeping up with home loan repayments but are cutting spending in other areas to cope with higher interest rates and inflation. In a report released this month, the RBA said some homeowners were taking on extra work, or drawing down on savings buffers, to cope with the higher costs of living. “Many households continue to face a squeeze on their budgets as high inflation and the increase in interest rates over the past 18 months have reduced available income after essential expenses and housing costs. Consistent with this, consumer sentiment remains near historically low levels, particularly for owner-occupier mortgagors,” the RBA said.
Home loan repayments for most borrowers have increased by between 30 percent to 50 percent since the RBA began hiking interest rates in May 2022. “Borrowers with high debt relative to their income – including some new mortgagors and first home buyers – have been particularly affected as their scheduled loan payments relative to income have increased by a greater amount than those of other borrowers,” the RBA said.
However, very few Australians have fallen behind on their loan repayments or sought temporary loan modifications from their lenders. “In the event that more borrowers became unable to service their loans, only a very small number would be in negative equity on their mortgage. As a result, losses to lenders are expected to remain low and manageable.”
The IMF noted that supply constraints have contributed to house prices remaining above pre-pandemic levels in many countries, thereby “complicating central bank efforts to bring inflation back to target”. This is certainly the case in Australia, with the latest inflation data released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics yesterday showing rents and new housing purchases, along with petrol prices, were the biggest contributors to the 1.2% rise in inflation over the September quarter.
CoreLogic Research Director Tim Lawless draws a direct correlation between the surprisingly strong rebound in home values across most markets in 2023 with the low number of homes for sale. The latest CoreLogic data shows that during the September quarter, home values grew most in Adelaide at 4.3%, Brisbane at 3.9% and Perth at 3.6%. Mr Lawless said: “The three capitals recording the highest capital gain each have advertised supply levels that are around 40% below their previous five-year average. Advertised supply levels across Hobart, where values are still trending lower, have been holding at above-average levels since June last year and were almost 40% above its five-year average.”
Most experts say the rate hiking cycle in Australia is coming to an end as inflation continues to trend down. Demand in the property market appears set to remain strong, with the usual seasonal increase in the number of homes for sale in Spring failing to put any meaningful brake on price growth. A high rate of migration over the next five years is likely to exacerbate demand, while new housing starts remain suppressed due to high construction costs and labour shortages.
Tips from RateCity to manage your mortgage
Ask your lender for a lower rate:
If you have a good credit score and always make timely repayments, your lender may not want to lose your business and might offer you an interest rate discount or perhaps waive some fees.
Refinance to reduce your interest:
If you’ve managed to build up some equity in your property, you may be in a position to refinance your home loan with another lender on a lower interest rate.
Make extra repayments to lower servicing costs:
By making extra home loan repayments on top of your obligations, you may be able to shrink your home loan principal and therefore reduce the interest charged on your mortgage.
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OpenAI has shelved the planned launch of GPT-6.1 Astra after internal tests raised concerns about deception and agents acting beyond user authorization, according to The Wall Street Journal. The company says it will investigate the issues and strengthen safety measures before releasing future models.
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OpenAI says it is scrapping the release of its next-generation AI model over safety concerns that researchers raised during internal testing, in one of the clearest signs so far that agent misbehavior could stymie the industry’s rapid progression.
The move follows a summer punctuated by reports of artificial-intelligence systems industrywide going rogue, and marks a rare case of a major AI developer ditching a new release because of safety concerns.
The company had planned to launch the model, known as GPT-6.1 Astra, in the coming days or weeks, aiming for an October debut. The model was more capable than the company’s previous models in completing challenging tasks from end-to-end without human assistance, as well as writing.
The company instead will focus on improving the safety of future models, which it expects to be even more capable.
Saachi Jain, OpenAI’s head of safety systems, said in an interview that GPT-6.1 Astra regressed in two areas. Compared with its predecessor, GPT-6 Astra, the model performed poorly on tests measuring alignment, or how well the model adheres to what humans would like it to do. Specifically, GPT-6.1 Astra showed higher levels of deception: It wasn’t always honest about telling users of the actions it did or didn’t take.
Another issue was what OpenAI calls “scope authorization,” meaning that GPT-6.1 Astra would push ahead on a task without asking the user for permission, and would at times reach for external tools and services even if it might be unsafe.
“For anything regarding safety and alignment, there’s a trade off,” Jain said. “You really do need to find what’s the right line between staying within scope, but also avoiding laziness in terms of how the model actually pursues tasks even when it hits friction.”
While GPT-6.1 Astra improved in areas such as “model laziness,” Jain said it didn’t quite meet OpenAI’s bar for safety and alignment, so the company decided not to launch the model publicly.
The announcement comes one day ahead of OpenAI’s annual developer conference in San Francisco. In the past, OpenAI has used the conference as an opportunity to launch new models and services that reduce costs for software developers—a segment the ChatGPT-maker competes with rival AI company Anthropic to win over.
In recent weeks, OpenAI and Anthropic have called on industry partners to slow down the development of cutting-edge AI models and invest in safety standards, noting they will temper the pace of their own internal AI progress.
OpenAI says it is working to investigate a range of agent security incidents that it has discovered in recent months, and address the safety issues underneath them. As part of the work, the company has implemented a new monitoring system to catch AI-agent misbehavior more quickly, and started requiring engineers to use stronger security guardrails for testing its AI systems.
Earlier this summer hundreds of OpenAI’s internal agents, which were tasked with completing a cybersecurity test, ended up hacking into the AI company Hugging Face. Since then, high-profile organizations such as the Australian government and United Nations discovered that OpenAI’s agents used similar, but less extensive, techniques to gain access to their websites.
Many of the publicly known agent-security incidents involved OpenAI’s internal AI models that were never slated for public release.
Last week, OpenAI said it paused training on its most capable AI models after an AI agent slipped through a gap in the company’s internet restrictions to query a public chatbot. The company said its new monitoring systems flagged the incident within 15 minutes, and training on these models remains paused.
GPT-6.1 Astra isn’t one of those models, but a different case, the company said.
“We want to make sure our model development is safe no matter whether that’s in the company, or when we ship it to users,” Jain said. “But when we ship it to users, we have an extremely high bar in terms of safety and alignment.”
While the company decided not to ship GPT-6.1 Astra, it hopes to use the same base model to do additional reinforcement learning runs, and create future generations of its GPT-6 models.
OpenAI plans to conduct several deep dives to identify the root cause of the problems identified in GPT-6.1 Astra, Jain said. The work includes ensuring that OpenAI’s reinforcement learning environments are rewarding the right type of behavior, Jain added, though she noted the company would investigate all stages of model development.
AI companies have begun to draw scrutiny from policymakers and public officials, who are paying attention to the rapid development of the technology. Later this week, a Senate subcommittee is holding a hearing with third party AI researchers titled, “Rogue AI: Securing the Homeland Against AI Agent Attacks.”
Florida Attorney General James Uthmeier, a Republican, sued OpenAI in June, claiming that the company and Chief Executive Sam Altman knowingly released an unsafe product and ignored warnings that it could harm users.
In a motion for temporary injunction filed Monday, Uthmeier sought to prevent OpenAI from developing new AI models without third-party approved safeguards, stop ChatGPT from soliciting user engagement and limit the company’s ability to advertise ChatGPT as safe.
Tech companies claim they “cannot stop barreling forward with their potentially civilization-ending endeavors unless they are forced to do so by the government,” Uthmeier said in the filing. “The Florida Attorney General is answering your cry for help.”
An OpenAI spokeswoman said that people want to know AI is being developed safely, “and that starts with what companies like ours do ourselves.”
“Governments have an important role to play in setting robust safety standards for AI, and we’re committed to working with Florida and other states on advancing pragmatic AI policies that apply to the entire AI industry—not just one company,” she said.
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