Australia Prepares for a Post-Pandemic Population Boom
Kanebridge News
Share Button

Australia Prepares for a Post-Pandemic Population Boom

Property experts say a rush of people will come as soon as border restrictions ease.

By Kirsten Craze
Mon, May 31, 2021 10:44amGrey Clock 5 min

Australia’s international borders were snapped shut with the arrival of Covid-19 in March 2020, and more than a year later our island nation is still closed to new arrivals. As a result, the country, which relies heavily on overseas migration to boost its economy and housing market, has experienced its first negative population growth in more than a century.

One year into the pandemic, Australia’s migrant stock was 300,000 people fewer than it would have been, coupled by a net migration decline of 97,000 people, according to Federal budget estimates.

By 2030, the Australian government estimates the country will be “missing” 1 million new people. As of June 2020, the Australian Bureau of Statistics recorded that there were more than 7.6 million migrants living in Australia, with 29.8% of the total population born in another country. England was the largest group of overseas-born migrants at 980,400, followed by those born in India at 721,000 and then Chinese migrants third at 650,600.

The hit to Australia’s population growth rate is already taking its toll on some parts of the property market, particularly inner city apartments. However, when borders do reopen, property and population experts predict that Australia’s successful and vigilant handling of the pandemic—Victoria instated Thursday a weeklong statewide lockdown in response to a cluster of only two-dozen or so cases—and its rebounding economy will attract the attention of cashed-up migrants and foreigners seeking out shrewd investments.

Understanding the Migration Equation

In the Federal Budget announced earlier this month, the government hinted at a “gradual return” to temporary or permanent migration, but no sooner than mid-2022. As a result, Australia’s population is predicted to be about 25.88 million by the end of next year.

Tim Lawless, head of research for property data firm CoreLogic, said the long-term impact of this blow to Australia’s population growth will be multilayered.

“If the Treasury forecasts are right, this means the rate of population growth will be the lowest since 1917. This will be disruptive to housing demand. However, the impact will not be evenly spread,” he explained.

“We need to consider the composition of housing demand. In the last few years at least, about 70% of migration has been temporary; it’s been students and visitors. And about 30% have been permanent migrants,” he continued. “Temporary migrants will usually rent, and even permanent arrivals typically rent before they buy anyway, so there’s always been a bit of a lag.”

As a result, inner city vacancy rates soared and rents dropped, particularly in Sydney and Melbourne where most new arrivals initially land. A return of both temporary and permanent migrants would create an immediate demand throughout metropolitan rental markets and provide opportunities for investors coming back into the market.

 

Savvy Investors Will Be Ready for Open Borders

Simon Keustenmacher, social demographer and co-founder of Melbourne-based demographic advisory firm The Demographics Group, said Australia’s big city mayors and property developers are keen to reignite inner cities post-pandemic.

“The inner city rental market of relatively small dwellings—one or two bedroom apartments—has suffered because there are no new arrivals or international students. The more you can get to come, the more everyone will get out of it because they just invigorate these areas and put capital back into the economy,” he said.

Although no one knows yet how many temporary and permanent migrants Australia will welcome, or when, Mr. Keustenmacher is sure housing demand will skyrocket when they do.

“People will want to come to Australia at a much higher rate than we will take people in, I’m certain,” he said, adding that it’s especially true of the top end of the income spectrum. “More and more migrants will want to come to Australia because they’re thinking, ‘Where can I have the best lifestyle?’”

Mr. Keustenmacher said he envisaged Australia’s skilled migration list becoming shorter and more specific. Those highly skilled, well-paid workers who do arrive in Australia will have an additional challenge when seeking a home as they will be in direct competition with another huge slice of the population.

“Plenty of those high-income earners arriving in Australia will be in the family stage of their lifecycle so they’ll be competing for the most sought after property—three- and four-bedroom houses. Demographically speaking, that’s the hottest market to be in because Australia’s millennials, who are also in the family stage of life, are our biggest generation right now,” he explained.

“Therefore, if people buy purely for investment they should buy whatever property is deemed to be rare, because prices will be driven up,” he said.

 

Things Could Go From Good, to Even Better

Despite unprecedented negative population growth, Australia’s dwelling values did not suffer throughout the second half of 2020 and into the first quarter of 2021. On the contrary, in March alone, CoreLogic’s national home value index recorded a 2.8% increase, the fastest pace of monthly growth in 32 years.

John McGrath, founder of Australia-wide realtor group McGrath Real Estate, said when new arrivals return, housing demand is likely to increase even further.

“Whilst the current surge in local demand and property values will no doubt plateau in the near future as the inevitable buyer fatigue calms things down, international borders opening up will be the next catalyst for price growth,” he said.

During the height of the pandemic in mid-2020, real estate agents across Australia noted a sharp uptick in inquiry from Australians living overseas hoping to return home, or at least invest on home soil.

“We have already sold a number of properties to expats sight unseen off the internet over the past 12 months, but this will escalate rapidly as borders open,” he said.

To date, a wave of international interest in Australia’s luxury properties close to beaches or in rural settings has put upward price pressure on lifestyle locations, and Mr. McGrath said he believes that will inevitably create a trickle-down effect.

“While much of the demand will find its way to higher priced homes upward of $10 million , I expect we will see buying across all price ranges as people seek to migrate to Australia,” he said. “Traditionally, the vast majority of these immigrants investing into Australia have focused on Sydney and Melbourne, but due to lifestyle and workplace changes post-COVID we should see a wider spread of investment including many regional lifestyle areas.”

Waves, Wine and Wool

Three types of lifestyle markets have been highly sought after since the pandemic forced individuals to reconsider their priorities and work-life balance. Beach locations, wine regions and rural estates have all been hot property.

“Some of the really high-profile lifestyle markets would probably be on the radar for returning expats, or foreign migrants,” Mr. Lawless said. “If we do see more migrants arriving, or expats returning, a lot of them will be looking at not just Sydney or Melbourne, but also the likes of Byron Bay, Noosa or the Mornington Peninsula.”

A shift to remote working has meant these areas, some of which are hundreds of miles from employment hubs in the cities, are no longer disadvantaged by long commute times.

 

People Can’t Travel to Australia, but Money Can

The fact that international borders are closed isn’t holding back keen foreign investors who are playing the long property game.

“They don’t even need to move to Australia right now. Currency and capital can still flow across the border,” Mr. Lawless said.

“Expats or potentially foreign buyers would be looking at Australian real estate because it’s a pretty good investment at the moment. It’s on a strong capital gain trajectory and considering where mortgage rates are, it’s also relatively high yielding,” he explained.

Australian expats can buy established property, though foreign investors or potential migrants are restricted to purchasing new properties or buying land with the purpose of building a home, according to Australia’s Foreign Investment Review Board guidelines.

“There is limited availability for newly built apartments in some areas as construction is starting to wind down, but if you looked around Sydney and Melbourne, there are still plenty of apartments underway,” he said.

“We’ll see a few years down the track, considering how Australia has managed Covid-19 as well as just the sheer liveability of Australia, that this is going to be a very popular place. If I wasn’t in Australia I’d certainly want to be, put it that way,” Mr. Lawless said.

Reprinted by permission of Mansion Global. Copyright 2021 Dow Jones & Company. Inc. All Rights Reserved Worldwide. Original date of publication: May 30, 2021



MOST POPULAR

A rare slice of Sydney history, Coolabah blends Victorian grandeur with modern luxury in the heart of Greenwich; once home to Lane Cove’s first Lord Mayor and now listed with a $6.5m guide.

Bhutan is pioneering a new frontier in travel by allowing tourists to pay for flights, visas, hotels and even fruit stalls using cryptocurrency via Binance Pay.

Related Stories
Property of the Week
Property Of The Week: 45 Greenwich Rd, Greenwich
By Kirsten Craze 16/05/2025
Property
Melbourne’s Most Expensive Suburbs to Rent
By Staff Writer 14/05/2025
Property of the Week
Heritage mansion a rare piece of Melbourne’s architectural past
By Kirsten Craze 12/05/2025
Melbourne’s Most Expensive Suburbs to Rent

Melbourne’s lifestyle appeal is driving record population growth — and rising rents. Here are the six most expensive suburbs to rent a house in right now.

By Staff Writer
Wed, May 14, 2025 5 min

Melbourne is considered Australia’s most liveable city. In fact, Melbourne competes on the global stage, consistently ranking among Time Out’s top cities to live in the world and ranking fourth in 2025. Melbourne is a cultural mecca filled with arts, x, and the country’s best sporting events.

It’s the lifestyle factor that has seen Melbourne’s population grow by over 142,000 people over the 23/24 financial year, largely driven by overseas migration. With increased population comes increased demand for properties, particularly in the rental market. 

Akin to Sydney’s Eastern Suburbs, Melbourne’s South Eastern suburbs, towards Bayside and the water, dominate the most expensive suburbs listed to rent across the Victorian capital. 

In this article, we’ve examined the six most expensive suburbs to rent a house in Melbourne right now, according to property data analytics firm Cotality (formerly CoreLogic).

Brighton

Median purchase: $3.15m
Median rent: $1,353

Brighton is Melbourne’s most expensive suburb to rent a house, and it’s easy to see why. A blend of grand period homes and modern architectural builds line the wide, tree-filled streets. The suburb is synonymous with luxury, and rental properties—especially those close to the famed Brighton Beach and its iconic bathing boxes—are snapped up quickly. Vacancy rates sit at a tight 0.9 per cent.

The Neighbourhood

Brighton offers an enviable mix of a beachside lifestyle and convenient shopping and dining. With access to top schools like Brighton Grammar and Firbank, plus Church Street’s boutiques and the Royal Brighton Yacht Club, the Bayside suburb is the complete package for Melbourne’s high-end renters.

Malvern

Median purchase: $2.8m
Median rent: $1,313

Long known for its timeless Victorian and Edwardian homes, Malvern is a leafy inner suburb with prestige appeal. Many properties here are fully renovated period homes, featuring extensive gardens and original features that appeal to families and executives.

The Neighbourhood
Malvern boasts a refined atmosphere with a strong community feel. Glenferrie Road and High Street offer upscale cafes, boutiques, and grocers, while schools like De La Salle and St Joseph’s make the suburb particularly attractive to families.

Black Rock

Median purchase: $2.29m
Median rent: $1,253

Nestled along the Bayside coast, Black Rock has seen steady growth in both house prices and rents in recent years. Larger blocks and a quieter, more laid-back vibe than neighbouring suburbs make this a coveted spot for renters seeking both space and lifestyle. 

The Neighbourhood
Black Rock is home to the picturesque Half Moon Bay and scenic cliffside walks. The suburb blends beachside charm with village convenience, offering local cafés, golf courses, and direct access to some of Melbourne’s best coastal trails.

Sandringham

Median purchase: $2.21m
Median rent: $1,199

Sandringham, next door to Black Rock, offers more of the same as its neighbouring suburb, at similar prices. Sandringham too ticks the box for laid-back waterside recreation, with the majority of homes in walking distance to the sand and charming village shops.

The Neighbourhood
This is a family-friendly suburb with a strong community vibe. Sandringham Village, with its mix of cafes, wine bars, and boutiques, sits just a short walk from the train station and beach. The area also offers excellent sporting facilities and parks. Sandringham Harbour is the local landmark, a popular destination for boating, fishing, and waterfront views from Sandringham Yacht Club.

Canterbury

Median purchase: $3.15m
Median rent: $1,179

Canterbury is the innermost Melbourne suburb on this list. It is considered one of Melbourne’s most prestigious suburbs, defined by grand family homes, generally over-the-top opulent new builds with French Provincial façades behind gated entries.

The Neighbourhood
Canterbury is anchored by the exclusive “Golden Mile” precinct and is surrounded by elite private schools such as Camberwell Grammar and Strathcona. Maling Road provides a quaint village feel, while the area’s lush green spaces complete the picture of prestige.

Hampton

Median purchase: $2.3m
Median rent: $1,171

It’s back to Bayside for the sixth and final suburb on the priciest rental areas in Melbourne. Hampton is not too dissimilar to Brighton, with a main High Street providing convenience and the beach rounding out the relaxed lifestyle found on the bay. The suburb has undergone significant gentrification, with many original homes replaced by contemporary builds.

The Neighbourhood
With a stretch of clean, family-friendly beach and the bustling Hampton Street shopping strip, Hampton has everything renters could want—from stylish cafes to gourmet grocers and boutique fitness studios. Its proximity to Brighton and Sandringham only adds to its appeal.

Melbourne’s Cheapest Suburb: Melton South

Median purchase: $460,000
Median rent: $430

On the opposite end of the spectrum, Melton South—roughly 40km west of the CBD—offers the most affordable rental market. With a median rent of under $450 a week, it’s less than a third of the weekly rent in Brighton. The suburb attracts families and first-home renters seeking value and larger land lots.

Melbourne’s Best Suburb: Toorak

Toorak is considered the Point Piper of Melbourne. Boasting even more billionaires than Sydney’s harbourside hotspot, Toorak is home to Melbourne’s most expensive houses, and reportedly Australia’s most expensive house sale if the 1860s Italianate mansion Coonac settles at over $130 million.

The suburb has some of the best educational institutions in Melbourne, as well as luxury homes on the Yarra, two train stations, and a central shopping precinct undergoing a full transformation with several mixed-use retail and residential developments. It is definitely the place to be. 

Where is Melbourne’s most expensive suburb to rent a house?

As of May 2025, Brighton is Melbourne’s most expensive suburb to rent a house.

Where is Melbourne’s cheapest suburb to rent a unit?

As of May 2025, Melton South is Melbourne’s most expensive suburb to rent a house.

Where is Melbourne’s most expensive suburb to buy a house?

As of May 2025, Toorak is Melbourne’s most expensive suburb to buy a house.

Where is Melbourne’s most expensive suburb to buy a unit?

As of May 2025, Beaumaris is Melbourne’s most expensive suburb to buy a unit

MOST POPULAR

A television producer sold the property to two separate buyers; one paid $57 million for the main house, and the other bought a smaller parcel for $29 million.

New study finds that CEOs are more likely to be fired for company underperformance if a director has served in the military.

Related Stories
Property of the Week
WHY WILLOW VALE MILL IS A ONE-OF-A-KIND COUNTRY ESTATE
By Kirsten Craze 20/12/2024
Money
Health Is Wealth When Tariffs Are Denting Profit Forecasts
By JACOB SONENSHINE 18/03/2025
Lifestyle
Want to Take the Pain Out of Planning Meals? Learn to Be an AI Whisperer.
By Jane Black 18/03/2025
0
    Your Cart
    Your cart is emptyReturn to Shop