Australia set for a bumper spring selling season
It’s an unusually busy end to the traditionally quiet winter season as some grapple with ‘fixed rate cliff’ concerns
2 min
Property markets across the country are heating up ahead of the traditionally busy spring real estate season as seller uncertainty begins to thaw, with the trend expected to continue.
The latest PropTrack Listings Report shows the number of homes being brought to market surged by 9.2 per cent year-on-year in Sydney and 9.1 per cent in Melbourne.
While other capital cities were flat, the total volume of properties for sale edged upwards by 0.4 per cent in July.
“While part of the reason for that growth is that last July was a slower month, it is not the whole story,” PropTrack economist and report author Angus Moore said.
“There were more new listings in both Sydney and Melbourne in July than has been typical on average for this time of year over the past decade.”
Activity is likely to continue increasing over coming months after what was a particularly quiet start to the year, he said.
Seller activity would typically be low during the colder months. According to CoreLogic data, new listings historically drop by about five per cent between autumn and winter.
“In contrast, through the winter season to-date, new listings have risen by 13.2% this year, driven mostly by a 17.9% rise across the capital cities compared with a 4.6% rise in the flow of new listings across the combined regional areas of the country,” CoreLogic executive research director Tim Lawless said.
That apparent surge in vendor confidence can be attributed to recent rising home prices in almost all capital cities, Mr Lawless said.
July marked the seventh consecutive month that home prices nationally increased – now up 2.8 per cent across the year, according to PropTrack data.
But for some vendors, Mr Lawless said listing now could be a matter of necessity.
“Anecdotally, we may also be seeing more homeowners needing to sell amid a peak in the ‘fixed rate cliff’, elevated interest rates and high cost of living pressures.
“Data on mortgage arrears continues to show a historically small portion of borrowers are behind on their mortgage repayments, however we are likely to see mortgage stress becoming more evident through the second half of the year.”
The trend in rising listings will be a critical factor to monitor in coming months, he said.
“The spring season is shaping up to be a busy one, making up for the relatively sedate spring and early summer selling season last year.
“Through the recent recovery phase to-date, low available supply levels have been the key factor supporting value growth.
“A rise in stock levels could signal a further easing in the pace of capital gains across Australian housing markets as buyers benefit from a broader selection of available housing.”
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New research shows a widening divide across Australia and New Zealand’s property markets, with investors increasingly forced to look beyond traditional strongholds to find real returns.
3 min
By any traditional measure, Australia’s property market should be moving in sync. Instead, it is fragmenting.
New research from MaxCap, led by Head of Research Bruce Wan, paints a picture of a market no longer defined by national trends, but by sharp regional divergence, where performance gaps between cities are widening, and the smartest capital is moving accordingly.
At the top end of the ladder, Perth and southeast Queensland are surging ahead. At the other, Melbourne and Auckland are only just beginning to recover from recent downturns. And sitting squarely in the middle is Sydney, steady but constrained.
The takeaway is clear: the era of relying on headline markets is over.
The rise of the unexpected leaders
Brisbane and the broader southeast Queensland region have emerged as standout performers, driven by population growth, infrastructure investment and a sustained undersupply of housing.
According to the report, housing values in the region have continued to accelerate, supported by long-term tailwinds including the 2032 Olympic Games and a decade of relatively subdued price growth prior.
Perth is telling a similar story, albeit for different reasons. Once heavily tied to commodity cycles, the Western Australian capital is now benefiting from a broader base of economic drivers, including defence spending and sustained resource sector strength.
The result is a housing market that remains one of the strongest in the country, even as price growth begins to ease from its peak.
Sydney holds, but doesn’t lead
For Sydney, the story is more nuanced.
While prices continue to climb and the city remains Australia’s most expensive market, affordability constraints are clearly limiting its pace. Residential growth, while positive, lags behind smaller capitals, and commercial sectors are being held back by softer demand in key industries.
There are, however, signs of momentum building. New infrastructure, including the western Sydney Airport and expanded rail networks, is expected to unlock development opportunities and support future growth, particularly in emerging precincts.
Still, the report positions Sydney firmly in the “middle of the pack”, no longer the automatic frontrunner for investors.
Melbourne’s slow reset
Melbourne, once a consistent performer, has spent recent years recalibrating.
Extended lockdowns, combined with new state property taxes, have weighed heavily on investor sentiment and pricing, particularly across the commercial office sector. Residential values have also underperformed, though for different structural reasons.
Now, there are early signs of recovery.
Improved affordability, population growth and a stabilising economic backdrop are beginning to draw buyers back into the market, with both residential and commercial sectors showing tentative signs of improvement.
Auckland’s turning point
Across the Tasman, Auckland has faced its own challenges, particularly from an outflow of younger workers to Australia, which has dampened demand and stalled price growth.
But here too, the tide appears to be shifting.
A return to positive migration, lower interest rates and policy changes — including the easing of foreign buyer restrictions — are expected to support a gradual recovery, alongside renewed interest from offshore capital.
A market that rewards precision
If there is one unifying theme, it is this: broad-brush strategies no longer work.
MaxCap’s research highlights that the most compelling opportunities are increasingly found outside the traditional powerhouses of Sydney and Melbourne, requiring investors to take a more targeted, locally informed approach.
“Given these persistent performance gaps, there is plentiful scope for alpha returns, just by picking the right locations and market segments,” the report notes.
In other words, success in this market is no longer about being in property — it is about being in the right property, in the right place, at the right time.
And increasingly, that place may not be where you expect.
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