Australian working hours are dropping – for some
Data from the 2021 Census reveals that while some are working less paid hours now, others are working harder than ever
Data from the 2021 Census reveals that while some are working less paid hours now, others are working harder than ever
Fewer Australians are working more than 40 hours a week than they were 10 years ago, the Australian Bureau of Statistics reports.
The data from the 2021 Census released yesterday shows 38 percent of Australians now work more than 40 hours per week, compared with 45 percent a decade ago.
“Of those working 40 hours or more, nearly all (86 per cent) did fewer than 15 hours of domestic work. However, a third (35 per cent) had childcare responsibilities and 11 per cent provided unpaid assistance to a person with a disability, health condition, or due to old age,” Dr David Gruen AO, Australian Statistician said.
Across occupations, farmers, school principals, surgeons and miners recorded a median of 50 hours per week, while, as an industry, mining had the highest median numbers, with 48 hours per week. Comparing hours around the country, workers in the Northern Territory and Western Australian continue to report the longest week, with 44 percent and 42 percent respectively working more than 40 hours.
Across the sexes, two in three part-time workers were women while two in three full-time workers were men.
One in three part-time workers were also responsible for unpaid childcare while 17 percent of part-time workers were involved in volunteer work. Domestic duties fell more often to part-time and full-time female workers, with 10 percent of part-time male workers picking up 15 hours or more of the housework compared with 32 percent for women.
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Tuesday’s retail sales report could be the scrap of evidence that tips the balance as Federal Reserve officials decide how much to cut interest rates on Wednesday.
It is practically a given that the central bank will reduce rates. Inflation has fallen to its lowest point since February 2021, giving the Fed more flexibility to focus on the second component of its dual mandate—achieving maximum employment. Although the labor market remains resilient, the most recent two jobs reports have been weaker than expected, putting some pressure on the Fed to loosen monetary policy.
The question now is by how much rates will fall—0.5 percentage point, or 0.25 point? The indications from interest-rate futures are split , recently favoring the more aggressive half-percentage-point decrease.
Andrew Hollenhorst, an economist at Citi , leans toward the likelihood the Fed is more cautious on Wednesday, cutting rates by 0.25 percentage points. But he notes that it it is a close call that depends on the dynamics of the bank’s rate-setting committee and the strength or weakness of Tuesday’s retail sales report.
A positive surprise would suggest that both consumers and the labor market remain resilient, paving the way for a more modest cut. If the report comes in well below expectations, however, Fed officials may grow concerned that a weaker labor market is weighing on consumer spending, which could lead to a bigger cut, Hollenhorst added.
Louis Navellier, founder and chief investment officer of the money-management firm Navellier agrees. “In theory, if the August retail sales report is horrible, then a 0.5% Fed key interest rate cut may be forthcoming on Wednesday,” he said.
Economists are expecting retail sales will decline by 0.2% in August from July, according to FactSet. They jumped by a surprising 1% in July .
Lower gasoline prices and car sales will likely drag the headline number lower. Indeed, stripping out car and gas sales, retail sales are projected to increase by about 0.3% month over month.
Yet there is growing concern that even excluding autos and gas sales, the sales figure will be soft. While spending was remarkably strong in July, the Fed’s latest Beige Book flagged that consumer spending ticked down in August, points out Bill Adams, chief economist for Comerica Bank . Many retailers, particularly those catering to lower-income shoppers, have warned that Americans are being cautious and exceedingly choosy about what they are buying and where.
The impact of the retail sales report will likely extend beyond the immediate rate cut. The insights it contains about U.S. consumers will also factor into the Fed’s quarterly update to its Summary of Economic Projections, containing officials’ latest forecasts for the U.S. economy, inflation, and near-term interest rates.
The so-called dot plot , which charts the individual interest-rate projections of the seven members of the Fed’s board of governors and the 12 regional Fed presidents, is always closely watched as investors try to chart the Fed’s future actions.
Hollenhorst believes the median dot showing where rates will be at the end of 2024 should show “at least” 0.75 percentage-point of cuts, factoring in 0.25 point at each meeting through the end of the year. But it is likely that officials will leave the door open for more cuts in case data on the job market or consumer spending sour faster than expected.
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