Australians on the move as housing affordability worsens
Analysts say more people may leave capital cities for the regions in 2024 as the housing crisis deepens
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Frustrated aspiring home buyers and renters fed up with high runaway prices in certain markets may resort to moving interstate in 2024, according to analysts. In the latest Housing Affordability Report released by ANZ and CoreLogic, analysts say housing affordability has worsened due to rising migration and interest rates on top of longer-term factors such as governments not building enough social and affordable housing to keep up with demand.
“There is no quick and easy supply response to rising rents and home values,” according to the report. “As a result, 2024 may see more internal migration of prospective first home buyers and renters to markets with relatively low price points.” ANZ and CoreLogic point to data tracking historical net internal migration trends against the current median value of dwellings. “Internal migration was higher across areas with relatively low median values at that time,” the data shows.
During the pandemic, internal migration patterns changed as more people left Sydney and Melbourne, in particular, and relocated to the regions. Being able to work from home enabled many families to move to lower-cost markets and attain a better lifestyle. Queensland – especially the Gold Coast and Sunshine Coast, along with regional NSW and Victoria — were key beneficiaries of this trend. In 2022, NSW lost 31,560 residents and Victoria lost 9,955 due to net internal migration, while Queensland gained 34,545 residents, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS).
The ANZ/CoreLogic report also predicts that more Australians will choose to share a property to save money in today’s cost-of-living crisis. Multi-generational living among families is a rising trend among home owners, and in the rental market, there is surging demand for share houses to make the rent more affordable for individuals. This represents a reversal of pandemic trends, say the analysts.
“In addition to changing location preferences, there could also be some preference shifts around the number of people sharing a household in 2024. The pandemic period saw a notable drop in average household size from 2.55 people per household to 2.49 as of 2023. This may have reflected greater demand for space as more time was spent at home, a temporary rise in available rentals at the very start of the pandemic, and high levels of fiscal stimulus supporting incomes. However, this trend could reverse as more people take up share housing to alleviate housing costs.”
The interest rate hiking cycle is likely coming to an end, which will ease pressure on mortgage serviceability, but the analysts note that a steady or falling cash rate typically results in upward pressure on prices. “Additionally, the current drop-off in new dwelling approvals may hinder housing supply growth for some time. Ultimately, improved housing affordability in the long term is likely to depend on deliberate initiatives to increase housing supply, rather than relying on a temporary downswing in prices or cyclical reduction in interest rates.”
The report also finds that regional markets are not as affordable as they used to be following the pandemic boom. As of October, regional home values are 44 percent higher than at the start of COVID compared to capital city prices being 26 percent higher.
The report also notes a widening price gap between Sydney and Melbourne, with Melbourne the only capital city where affordability for buyers has improved over the past five years.
“More modest dwelling value increases in Melbourne, which has led to Melbourne being more affordable relative to Sydney over time, comes down to more supply of dwellings over the past 15 years,” the report states. “ABS building activity data shows there were around 850,000 dwelling completions across Victoria in the 15 years to June 2023, which is 21% higher than in NSW over the same period.”
Ophora Tallawong has launched its final release of quality apartments priced under $700,000.
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Ophora Tallawong has launched its final release of quality apartments priced under $700,000.
3 min
Ophora Tallawong has launched its final release of apartments, positioning itself as one of the last opportunities for buyers to secure a new Sydney home below $700,000.
The project, located in one of the city’s fastest-growing corridors, is offering rare buyer protections at a time when affordability is tightening and competition for quality stock is intensifying.
According to JLL’s Q2 2025 Apartment Market Overview, Sydney’s median apartment price has already climbed to $795,000, setting a record.
With interest rates now on a downward trend and supply still heavily constrained, experts warn that today’s price brackets may not exist next year.
Ronnie Rahme, Development Manager at KDMC, said buyers were responding to the combination of quality and value.
“You simply don’t see this level of finish at these price points anymore,” Rahme said. “That’s why demand has been so strong for this final release.”
Dr Andrew Wilson, Chief Economist at My Housing Market, says the economic drivers are clear. “High rents and higher prices continue to provide clear incentives for first-home buyers and investors chasing solid investment returns,” he told Kanebridge News.
“New government initiatives to support first-home buyers will also act to place upward pressure on prices.”
The bigger picture
JLL’s research reinforces that point. While over 15,700 apartments are expected to be delivered nationally this year, a 40% uplift on 2024, Sydney remains undersupplied, with demand continuing to outpace completions.
The report also notes that reductions in the RBA cash rate are expected to further fuel buyer activity, with constrained supply continuing to push prices higher into 2026.
With construction costs soaring, Government contributions climbing, and interest rates remaining high, projects are harder than ever to bring to market, putting upward pressure on newly completed apartments.
The pipeline of new supply is shrinking as developers delay or abandon projects that no longer stack up financially.
According to JLL’s overview, only 2,554 completions are forecast for Sydney this year – against annual demand exceeding 30,000 dwellings.
At the same time, population growth, rental demand, and first-home buyer incentives are intensifying competition for limited stock. The imbalance between constrained supply and resilient demand is leaving new apartments scarcer and more expensive across Sydney.
Ophora: Last Chance In Sydney’s northwest
Developed by KDMC and designed by Architex, the $50 million project has launched its final release, with limited availability of 81 brand-new residences from just $545,000 for a one-bedroom, or $695,000 for a two-bedroom, which is far below Sydney’s median and significantly cheaper than nearby competition.
The five-storey development at 37 Reis St, Tallawong, combines affordability with premium inclusions more often seen in luxury builds: ducted air-conditioning, timber floors, premium finishes, fridge cavities with water plumbing, video intercom systems, fibre internet, EV charging, landscaped gardens and a rooftop terrace with sweeping views.
It also comes with something almost unheard of at this price point, a 10-year Latent Defects Insurance (LDI) policy. Typically reserved for multimillion-dollar projects, LDI guarantees structural integrity for a decade and is only awarded to developers with a strong building track record.
SHC Insurance Brokers founder Stefan Hicks acknowledged the rarity of obtaining LDI, particularly for entry-level residential apartment complexes like Ophora.
“Gaining LDI is no mean feat. It’s offered selectively to developers and builders with a quality building history, and it requires both parties to employ an independent inspection service throughout construction,” he said.
“While this insurance is well-established around the world in about 40 countries, in Australia, we’re typically seeing high-end buildings covet LDI. The fact that Ophora has joined this exclusive list of quality-assured builds is a coup for entry-level home buyers.”
Raising the standard for affordable luxury
Rahme says the KDMC team wanted to set a new benchmark.
“Our mission with Ophora has always been clear: to raise the standard of what buyers should expect, regardless of budget,” he said.
“We’ve delivered a collection of apartments with finishes and features you’d usually only find in luxury projects, and we’ve backed it with one of the most stringent insurances available in the market. That gives buyers peace of mind that their investment is protected for the long term.
“People are walking through and realising you simply don’t see this level of quality at these price points anymore, as it’s effectively replacement cost in 2025.
“With rates coming down and limited competition, buyers and investors are moving quickly because they know the window won’t stay open. Investors, who have recently purchased at Ophora, have reported a strong rental demand, with minimum rental yields exceeding five per cent.”
Developments like Ophora, move-in ready, competitively priced and backed by rare structural protections (LDI), may represent the last chance for buyers to secure a sub-$700,000 apartment in Sydney.
View Ophora on cpmrealty.com.au
To arrange a private viewing or request more information, contact Sam Elbanna from CPM Realty: 0411 222 260
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