Australians on the move as housing affordability worsens
Analysts say more people may leave capital cities for the regions in 2024 as the housing crisis deepens
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Frustrated aspiring home buyers and renters fed up with high runaway prices in certain markets may resort to moving interstate in 2024, according to analysts. In the latest Housing Affordability Report released by ANZ and CoreLogic, analysts say housing affordability has worsened due to rising migration and interest rates on top of longer-term factors such as governments not building enough social and affordable housing to keep up with demand.
“There is no quick and easy supply response to rising rents and home values,” according to the report. “As a result, 2024 may see more internal migration of prospective first home buyers and renters to markets with relatively low price points.” ANZ and CoreLogic point to data tracking historical net internal migration trends against the current median value of dwellings. “Internal migration was higher across areas with relatively low median values at that time,” the data shows.
During the pandemic, internal migration patterns changed as more people left Sydney and Melbourne, in particular, and relocated to the regions. Being able to work from home enabled many families to move to lower-cost markets and attain a better lifestyle. Queensland – especially the Gold Coast and Sunshine Coast, along with regional NSW and Victoria — were key beneficiaries of this trend. In 2022, NSW lost 31,560 residents and Victoria lost 9,955 due to net internal migration, while Queensland gained 34,545 residents, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS).
The ANZ/CoreLogic report also predicts that more Australians will choose to share a property to save money in today’s cost-of-living crisis. Multi-generational living among families is a rising trend among home owners, and in the rental market, there is surging demand for share houses to make the rent more affordable for individuals. This represents a reversal of pandemic trends, say the analysts.
“In addition to changing location preferences, there could also be some preference shifts around the number of people sharing a household in 2024. The pandemic period saw a notable drop in average household size from 2.55 people per household to 2.49 as of 2023. This may have reflected greater demand for space as more time was spent at home, a temporary rise in available rentals at the very start of the pandemic, and high levels of fiscal stimulus supporting incomes. However, this trend could reverse as more people take up share housing to alleviate housing costs.”
The interest rate hiking cycle is likely coming to an end, which will ease pressure on mortgage serviceability, but the analysts note that a steady or falling cash rate typically results in upward pressure on prices. “Additionally, the current drop-off in new dwelling approvals may hinder housing supply growth for some time. Ultimately, improved housing affordability in the long term is likely to depend on deliberate initiatives to increase housing supply, rather than relying on a temporary downswing in prices or cyclical reduction in interest rates.”
The report also finds that regional markets are not as affordable as they used to be following the pandemic boom. As of October, regional home values are 44 percent higher than at the start of COVID compared to capital city prices being 26 percent higher.
The report also notes a widening price gap between Sydney and Melbourne, with Melbourne the only capital city where affordability for buyers has improved over the past five years.
“More modest dwelling value increases in Melbourne, which has led to Melbourne being more affordable relative to Sydney over time, comes down to more supply of dwellings over the past 15 years,” the report states. “ABS building activity data shows there were around 850,000 dwelling completions across Victoria in the 15 years to June 2023, which is 21% higher than in NSW over the same period.”
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Mirvac’s 45-level Trielle has topped out at Yarra’s Edge, pairing riverfront apartments with wellness facilities, private dining and resident services.
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Mirvac has topped out Trielle at Melbourne’s Yarra’s Edge, with more than 70 per cent of the riverfront development sold and approximately 80 per cent of purchasers intending to make their apartment a home.
The figures, released on September 22, point to an owner-occupier audience for one of the precinct’s final residential towers. Mirvac began developing Yarra’s Edge in 2003, and its latest addition occupies one of the remaining absolute riverfront sites.
Mirvac CEO of Development Stuart Penklis said existing residents were among those moving up within the neighbourhood.
“Many purchasers already have a connection to Yarra’s Edge,” Mr Penklis said, describing buyers whose changing needs were encouraging an upgrade within the precinct.
“As one of the final residential towers within Yarra’s Edge, Trielle represents the culmination of more than two decades of creating one of Melbourne’s most established and sought-after waterfront communities,” Penklis said.
“Positioned on the Collins Street axis with absolute river frontage, Trielle offers residents a rare opportunity to enjoy sweeping views across the Yarra River, Melbourne skyline and Port Phillip Bay, while remaining seamlessly connected to the CBD. With Trielle now more than 70 per cent sold, we’re continuing to see strong demand from buyers seeking quality homes in established locations.”
The developer also flagged a penthouse and sub-penthouse collection with larger layouts, premium finishes and broad outlooks. The planned wellness centrepiece, The Oasis, encompasses a 900-square-metre elevated urban rainforest.
Mirvac General Manager Residential Development Victoria Elysa Anderson said Trielle had resonated strongly with buyers seeking a rare lifestyle offering in Melbourne.
“Opportunities to secure a new luxury residence on a riverfront site of this calibre are incredibly rare, particularly within a community like Yarra’s Edge,” Anderson said.
“What makes Trielle unique is the combination of exceptional views, world-class residential facilities and the lifestyle that already exists around it. Residents are buying into a mature waterfront community with parks, promenades, dining, wellness and strong community connections already in place.”
The 45-level tower brings a substantial new presence to that waterfront. Its residential offering spans one-, two-, three- and four-bedroom apartments, with Signature, Prestige and Sub-Penthouse collections accommodating different household sizes. The north-facing position connects the apartments visually to the river and city beyond.
Seven storeys above the promenade, the planned Oasis combines planting and a running stream with a Scandinavian-inspired wellness club developed with spa specialist Naomi Gregory. Facilities include a 25-metre lap pool, hot magnesium pool, sauna, hydrotherapy, a gym, yoga and Pilates room, and treatment spaces.
The amenity extends beyond exercise. Residents will have access to The Biblioteca library and workspaces, ground-floor work pods, and The Salone piano lounge. A private Chef’s Table dining room offers a setting for larger gatherings, while a cinema, games room and sports lounge broaden the entertaining options. Concierge services and a dog-wash area support everyday routines.
Trielle comprises a collection of one, two, three and four-bedroom residences. Reflecting strong demand from owner occupiers, approximately 80 per cent of purchasers to date intend to live in their homes, highlighting the project’s appeal to those seeking a long-term waterfront lifestyle.
Mirvac has recently delivered The Albertine, a premium apartment development on the edge of Melbourne’s CBD, and is nearing completion of Prince & Parade in Brunswick, further strengthening its portfolio of thoughtfully designed apartment communities in some of Melbourne’s most sought-after urban locations.
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