Expats Fuelling Sky-High Property Prices
Returning well-heeled Aussies could be causing top-end market growth.
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The return of many expatriates from cities with more expensive property markets could be adding to the nation’s unprecedented rise in house prices according to the Property Investment Professionals of Australia (PIPA).
PIPA Chairman Peter Koulizos said expats were returning home en-masse, often with stronger currencies than the Australian dollar, further supercharging their buying power.
“Expats from expensive cities like London, Hong Kong and New York often don’t consider our real estate prices unaffordable and are happy to pay what is necessary to secure a prestigious property in a desirable location,” he said.
In fact, according to CoreLogic’s March National Home Value Index it is the premium end of the market that is leading the acceleration in the rate of capital gains at present.
Across the combined capitals, the upper quartile of the market recorded a 3.7 per cent lift in values in March, according to CoreLogic.
“Indeed, some properties are selling for hundreds of thousands of dollars more than what anyone – including experts – had predicted, which is leaving sellers very happy, but many buyers and property investment professionals scratching their heads somewhat,” added Mr Koulizos.
Real Estate Buyers Agent Association (REBAA) president Cate Bakos pointed to the impact of expats in Melbourne, with local buyers weren’t giving up without a fight.
“Cashed-up expats are certainly contributing to some of our silly runaway prices in Victoria, but we also have a lot of bottled-up energy from local buyers, too, particularly those who have managed to save during COVID,” Ms Bakos said.
She said the cost of borrowed money, combined with the government incentives in Victoria, had exacerbated the supply-demand imbalance, particularly in the $900,000 to $1 million price bracket.
Chris Dixon, a partner who led the charge, says he has a ‘very long-term horizon’
Americans now think they need at least $1.25 million for retirement, a 20% increase from a year ago, according to a survey by Northwestern Mutual
Philip Lowe’s comments come amid property industry concerns about pressures on mortgage holders and rising rents
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Leaders in Australia’s property industry are calling on the RBA to hit the pause button on further interest rate rises following yesterday’s announcement to raise the cash rate to 4.1 percent.
CEO of the REINSW, Tim McKibbin, said it was time to let the 12 interest rate rises since May last year take effect.
“The REINSW would like to see the RBA hit pause and allow the 12 rate rises to date work their way through the economy. Property prices have rebounded because of supply and demand. I think that will continue with the rate rise,” said Mr McKibbin.
The Real Estate Institute of Australia today released its Housing Affordability Report for the March 2023 quarter which showed that in NSW, the proportion of family income required to meet the average loan repayments has risen to 55 percent, up from 44.5 percent a year ago.
Chief economist at Ray White, Nerida Conisbee, said while this latest increase would probably not push Australia into a recession, it had major implications for the housing market and the needs of ordinary Australians.
“As more countries head into recession, at this point, it does look like the RBA’s “narrow path” will get us through while taming inflation,” she said.
“In the meantime however, it is creating a headache for renters, buyers and new housing supply that is going to take many years to resolve.
“And every interest rate rise is extending that pain.”
In a speech to guests at Morgan Stanley’s Australia Summit released today, Governor Philip Lowe addressed the RBA board’s ‘narrow path’ approach, navigating continued economic growth while pushing inflation from its current level of 6.8 percent down to a more acceptable level of 2 to 3 percent.
“It is still possible to navigate this path and our ambition is to do so,” Mr Lowe said. “But it is a narrow path and likely to be a bumpy one, with risks on both sides.”
However, he said the alternative is persistent high inflation, which would do the national economy more damage in the longer term.
“If inflation stays high for too long, it will become ingrained in people’s expectations and high inflation will then be self-perpetuating,” he said. “As the historical experiences shows, the inevitable result of this would be even higher interest rates and, at some point, a larger increase in unemployment to get rid of the ingrained inflation.
“The Board’s priority is to do what it can to avoid this.”
While acknowledging that another rate rise would adversely affect many households, Mr Lowe said it was unavoidable if inflation was to be tamed.
“It is certainly true that if the Board had not lifted interest rates as it has done, some households would have avoided, for a short period, the financial pressures that come with higher mortgage rates,” he said.
“But this short-term gain would have been at a much higher medium-term cost. If we had not tightened monetary policy, the cost of living would be higher for longer. This would hurt all Australians and the functioning of our economy and would ultimately require even higher interest rates to bring inflation back down.
“So, as difficult as it is, the rise in interest rates is necessary to bring inflation back to target in a reasonable timeframe.”
Chris Dixon, a partner who led the charge, says he has a ‘very long-term horizon’
Americans now think they need at least $1.25 million for retirement, a 20% increase from a year ago, according to a survey by Northwestern Mutual
