Home price falls of 2022 ‘now fully reversed’
More stock coming to market has done little to dampen strong outcomes for vendors
2 min
The Australian property market has recovered all of its 2022 losses, with national home values reaching a new record high in the first month of the busy spring season. New PropTrak data reveals national home values rose by 0.35 percent last month to a median of $754,000.
National prices are up 3.75 percent over the past 12 months, with the combined capital cities recording a stronger rate of growth at 4.76 percent while the combined regions clocked up price gains of 1.28%. PropTrak senior economist Eleanor Creagh said the seasonal increase in the number of homes for sale this spring has done nothing to curtail price growth.
“Despite the uplift in the number of properties coming to market, national home prices have moved higher again, regaining 2022’s rapid price falls in entirety to reach a record high in September,” said Ms Creagh.
“While a sharp increase in the number of properties hitting the market in Sydney and Melbourne has been improving choice for buyers, strong demand has seen prices continue to lift.
“Choice for buyers remains limited in Brisbane, Adelaide and Perth, heightening competition and seeing prices hit fresh peaks in each of these markets in September.”
Strong buyer competition is keeping auction clearance rates high this Spring. CoreLogic data shows 2,436 capital city homes were taken to auction last weekend, with a preliminary clearance rate of 71 percent recorded. This time last year, the clearance rate was 60.6 percent.
The PropTrak report shows that among the capital city markets, price growth over the past 12 months has been strongest in Perth. Home values have risen 9.24 percent to a record median of $597,000. Adelaide prices are up 8.31 percent to a record median of $689,000, and Sydney prices are up 6.86 percent to a median of $1.057 million.
In the regions, annual growth has been strongest in regional South Australia, where the median price has risen 9.86% to a new peak median of $399,000. Regional Queensland prices are up 4.89 percent to a record $614,000, while regional Western Australia prices have risen 3.29 percent to $460,000. Ms Creagh said prices will continue rising, with the key drivers being record levels of net overseas migration, tight rental markets and an undersupply of housing.
“Looking ahead, interest rates have likely peaked and population growth is rebounding strongly,” she said. “Together with a shortage of new home builds, prices are expected to rise.”
The Federal Government is projecting a net increase of 715,000 migrants over the next two years at a time when Australia already has a housing deficit. The National Housing Finance and Investment Corporation estimates a shortfall of 106,300 homes over the next five years.
In the rental market, Domain chief of research and economics, Dr Nicola Powell said Australia needs 40,000 to 70,000 extra rentals to meet current demand and balance the market.
“That is like adding all of the dwellings in the LGA of Newcastle into the market,” she said.
Domain’s latest Rent Report reveals a record-breaking 10 consecutive quarters of growth in weekly house rents and nine consecutive quarters of growth in weekly apartment rents. CoreLogic data shows the pace of rental price growth is slowing in 2023 but it is still very difficult for tenants to find a rental, with the national vacancy rate now sitting at a record low of 1.1 percent.
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New research shows a widening divide across Australia and New Zealand’s property markets, with investors increasingly forced to look beyond traditional strongholds to find real returns.
3 min
By any traditional measure, Australia’s property market should be moving in sync. Instead, it is fragmenting.
New research from MaxCap, led by Head of Research Bruce Wan, paints a picture of a market no longer defined by national trends, but by sharp regional divergence, where performance gaps between cities are widening, and the smartest capital is moving accordingly.
At the top end of the ladder, Perth and southeast Queensland are surging ahead. At the other, Melbourne and Auckland are only just beginning to recover from recent downturns. And sitting squarely in the middle is Sydney, steady but constrained.
The takeaway is clear: the era of relying on headline markets is over.
The rise of the unexpected leaders
Brisbane and the broader southeast Queensland region have emerged as standout performers, driven by population growth, infrastructure investment and a sustained undersupply of housing.
According to the report, housing values in the region have continued to accelerate, supported by long-term tailwinds including the 2032 Olympic Games and a decade of relatively subdued price growth prior.
Perth is telling a similar story, albeit for different reasons. Once heavily tied to commodity cycles, the Western Australian capital is now benefiting from a broader base of economic drivers, including defence spending and sustained resource sector strength.
The result is a housing market that remains one of the strongest in the country, even as price growth begins to ease from its peak.
Sydney holds, but doesn’t lead
For Sydney, the story is more nuanced.
While prices continue to climb and the city remains Australia’s most expensive market, affordability constraints are clearly limiting its pace. Residential growth, while positive, lags behind smaller capitals, and commercial sectors are being held back by softer demand in key industries.
There are, however, signs of momentum building. New infrastructure, including the western Sydney Airport and expanded rail networks, is expected to unlock development opportunities and support future growth, particularly in emerging precincts.
Still, the report positions Sydney firmly in the “middle of the pack”, no longer the automatic frontrunner for investors.
Melbourne’s slow reset
Melbourne, once a consistent performer, has spent recent years recalibrating.
Extended lockdowns, combined with new state property taxes, have weighed heavily on investor sentiment and pricing, particularly across the commercial office sector. Residential values have also underperformed, though for different structural reasons.
Now, there are early signs of recovery.
Improved affordability, population growth and a stabilising economic backdrop are beginning to draw buyers back into the market, with both residential and commercial sectors showing tentative signs of improvement.
Auckland’s turning point
Across the Tasman, Auckland has faced its own challenges, particularly from an outflow of younger workers to Australia, which has dampened demand and stalled price growth.
But here too, the tide appears to be shifting.
A return to positive migration, lower interest rates and policy changes — including the easing of foreign buyer restrictions — are expected to support a gradual recovery, alongside renewed interest from offshore capital.
A market that rewards precision
If there is one unifying theme, it is this: broad-brush strategies no longer work.
MaxCap’s research highlights that the most compelling opportunities are increasingly found outside the traditional powerhouses of Sydney and Melbourne, requiring investors to take a more targeted, locally informed approach.
“Given these persistent performance gaps, there is plentiful scope for alpha returns, just by picking the right locations and market segments,” the report notes.
In other words, success in this market is no longer about being in property — it is about being in the right property, in the right place, at the right time.
And increasingly, that place may not be where you expect.
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