New data reveals record yields in Australian rental markets in 2022
The best performing cities for investors may not be where you think
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The Australian rental market achieved record growth over 2022 as yields go from strength to strength, CoreLogic reports.
While CoreLogic’s Quarterly Rental Review for Q4 2022 showed a slowdown in the pace of growth for the second consecutive month in December last year, rentals experienced a record 10.2 percent increase over the year.
The December results are just the latest markers of a rental yield upswing, which has seen values rise 22.2 percent since September 2020, the largest upswing on record. It has taken the national median weekly rent valuation from $430 to $519.
Author of the report and CoreLogic head of research, Eliza Owen, said December figures revealed a 2 percent increase, down from a 2.3 percent increase in the September quarter, coinciding with a lift in the rental vacancy rate to 1.17 percent.
“The decline in quarterly rental growth rates observed in the December quarter was led by the capital cities where rents continued to increase but at a slightly slower rate than they have done in September and June quarters,” she said.
In the capital cities, Canberra still holds the top position as Australia’s most expensive city to rent, with a median weekly rental value of $681, edging out Sydney at $679 per week, followed by Darwin at $579 per week.
At the other end of the scale, Melbourne maintains the title of Australia’s most affordable rental capital at $507 per week, followed by Adelaide on $518, Hobart on $552, Perth at $553 and Brisbane at $588.
Ms Owen points to shifts in migration patterns in recent years to explain the disparity between the country’s largest capitals and Canberra, which reveal a weakening trend for new arrivals in Canberra compared with Sydney and Melbourne.
“Unlike Canberra, high levels of net overseas migration to NSW and Victoria has vastly offset negative net internal migration flows in the year to June 2022,” Ms Owen said. “Prior to the pandemic, Sydney and Melbourne alone accounted for around two thirds of net overseas arrivals, with high density city centres being among the most popular destinations. This has likely contributed to unprecedented annual growth in unit rents over 2022, which was 15.5 percent across Sydney and 14.2 percent in Melbourne.”
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Strong consumer spending and tight supply have driven retail to the top of commercial property, but signs of pressure are starting to emerge.
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Australia’s retail property sector entered 2026 as the strongest performing commercial asset class, but rising geopolitical risks and cost pressures are beginning to test its resilience, according to new research from Knight Frank.
The latest Australian Retail Review shows the sector rode a wave of consumer spending and constrained supply through 2025, delivering total returns of 9.2 per cent and driving transaction volumes up 43 per cent year-on-year to $14.4 billion.
That momentum carried into early 2026, with around $3.6 billion in deals recorded in the first quarter alone.
“Retail clearly emerged as the standout commercial property performer in 2025,” said Knight Frank Senior Economist, Research & Consulting Alistair Read.
“Improving household spending, limited new supply and stronger leasing fundamentals combined to drive better income growth and renewed investor confidence in the sector.”
Spending rebound drives retail strength
A lift in household spending has been central to the sector’s performance. Consumer spending rose 4.6 per cent year-on-year to February 2026, supported by easing inflation and improving real incomes.
That shift flowed directly into retailer performance, with average EBIT margins across major retailers rising to 8.9 per cent in the first half of 2026, their strongest level in several years.
“Stronger consumer spending was critical in restoring momentum to the retail sector,” Mr Read said.
“Retailers have generally been better able to absorb costs, rebuild margins and support sustainable rental outcomes, particularly in higher-quality centres.”
Improved trading conditions also pushed leasing spreads up 4.2 per cent in 2025, reinforcing income growth and supporting capital values.
Geopolitical tensions begin to bite
But the outlook has become more complicated. The report warns that escalating conflict in the Middle East and its impact on fuel prices, supply chains and interest rates could weigh heavily on consumer spending.
“Higher fuel prices, flow-on cost pressures across supply chains, and recent interest rate increases are collectively squeezing household budgets, and early consumer sentiment data suggests confidence is already softening,” Mr Read said.
“While household balance sheets remain generally resilient, heightened uncertainty over future costs is likely to weigh on spending — particularly in discretionary categories — in the months ahead.”
The impact is already being felt in investment activity. While the year began strongly, transaction volumes slowed in March as investors paused amid the uncertainty.
“Early indicators suggest elevated uncertainty has already begun to affect the market. While retail investment enjoyed its strongest start to a year in a decade, with nearly $3 billion transacted by the end of February, activity stalled in March, as investors took a pause amid elevated uncertainty,” Mr Read said.
Solid foundations support medium-term outlook
Despite the near-term headwinds, Knight Frank maintains that the sector’s underlying fundamentals remain strong. Limited new supply, high construction costs and population growth are expected to continue supporting rental growth over the medium term.
“Retail has entered this period of uncertainty from a position of strength,” Mr Read said.
“Supply-side constraints, population growth and improving income fundamentals remain powerful structural supports for the sector.”
The report highlights several trends shaping the year ahead, including steady yields as interest rates rise, mounting pressure on tenant margins, continued outperformance of prime centres, the growing need for logistics integration, and risks linked to underinvestment in capital expenditure.
For now, retail remains a sector with momentum, but one increasingly at the mercy of forces far beyond the shopping centre.
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