New York Remains the World’s Top Super-Luxury Property Market
London, Los Angeles, Hong Kong and Miami complete the top five in Knight Frank’s annual index
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New York retained its title as the world’s top super-luxury housing market last year—though it had to share the laurels with London, according to the latest index from Knight Frank.
Both cities registered 43 sales of $25 million or more. In London, that marked a 26% increase from 2021; while New York’s figure was down 35% from the prior year.
“Despite rising economic headwinds and growing uncertainty, the world’s wealthy have been committing to luxury residential property, with London and New York the standout cities in demand for ultra-prime sales,” Liam Bailey, global head of research at Knight Frank, said in the report released Wednesday.
Claiming the third spot was Los Angeles, with 39 sales priced at $25 million or above. It was followed by Hong Kong, with 28 ultra-prime sales, even during a tumultuous year for its housing market; and Miami, with 23.
Not surprisingly, these cities also had the most $10 million-plus sales in 2022. New York topped the list with 244 sales at this price point, Los Angeles and London had 225 and 223, respectively, according to the report.
Across the top 10 cities—which also included Singapore; Palm Beach, Florida; Geneva; Sydney; and Paris—there were a total of 1,392 sales at or above $10 million, a decline from the record 2,076 transactions at this level recorded in 2021, but up 49% from pre-Covid 2019.
Of the 100 prime property markets tracked by Knight Frank, 85 recorded positive or flat price growth in 2022. Dubai led the pack with a staggering 44.2% annual growth rate, boosted by its visa incentives that have attracted many ultra-high-net-worth buyers, Knight Frank said.
Other prime markets that saw surging home prices included Aspen, with a 27.6% increase year over year; Riyadh, capital city of Saudi Arabia, with a 25% annual growth rate; Tokyo, with 22.8%; and Miami, with 21.6%.
Markets that had some of the strongest growth during the pandemic recorded the deepest price declines in 2022, which included the New Zealand cities of Wellington (-24%) and Auckland (-19%); Stockholm (-8%); Vancouver (-7%); and Seoul (-5%), according to the report.
Overall, the Knight Frank Prime International Residential Index rose 5.2% on an annual basis in 2022, the highest growth rate since the global financial crisis excluding the record year of 2021.
“Wealth preservation, safe-haven capital flight and supply constraints played their part in driving prime price growth, but it was the post-pandemic surge that continued to push prices higher,” Kate Everett-Allen, partner of residential research at Knight Frank, said in the report.
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Ray White’s chief economist outlines her predictions for housing market trends in 2024
2 min
Ray White’s chief economist, Nerida Conisbee says property price growth will continue next year and mortgage holders will need to “survive until 2025” amid expectations of higher interest rates for longer.
Ms Conisbee said strong population growth and a housing supply shortage combatted the impact of rising interest rates in 2023, leading to unusually strong price growth during a rate hiking cycle. The latest CoreLogic data shows home values have increased by more than 10 percent in the year to date in Sydney, Brisbane and Perth. Among the regional markets, price growth has been strongest in regional South Australia with 8.6 percent growth and regional Queensland at 6.9 percent growth.
“As interest rates head close to peak, it is expected that price growth will continue. At this point, housing supply remains extremely low and many people that would be new home buyers are being pushed into the established market,” Ms Conisbee said. “Big jumps in rents are pushing more first home buyers into the market and population growth is continuing to be strong.”
Ms Conisbee said interest rates will be higher for longer due to sticky inflation. “… we are unlikely to see a rate cut until late 2024 or early 2025. This means mortgage holders need to survive until 2025, paying far more on their home loans than they did two years ago.”
Buyers in coastal areas currently have a window of opportunity to take advantage of softer prices, Ms Conisbee said. “Look out for beach house bargains over summer but you need to move quick. In many beachside holiday destinations, we saw a sharp rise in properties for sale and a corresponding fall in prices. This was driven by many pandemic driven holiday home purchases coming back on to the market.”
3 key housing market trends for 2024
Here are three of Ms Conisbee’s predictions for the key housing market trends of 2024.
Luxury apartment market to soar
Ms Conisbee said the types of apartments being built have changed dramatically amid more people choosing to live in apartments longer-term and Australia’s ageing population downsizing. “Demand is increasing for much larger, higher quality, more expensive developments. This has resulted in the most expensive apartments in Australia seeing price increases more than double those of an average priced apartment. This year, fewer apartments being built, growing population and a desire to live in some of Australia’s most sought-after inner urban areas will lead to a boom in luxury apartment demand.”
Homes to become even greener
The rising costs of energy and the health impacts of heat are two new factors driving interest in green homes, Ms Conisbee said. “Having a greener home utilising solar and batteries makes it cheaper to run air conditioning, heaters and pool pumps. We are heading into a particularly hot summer and having homes that are difficult to cool down makes them far more dangerous for the elderly and very young.”
More people living alone
For some time now, long-term social changes such as delayed marriage and an ageing population have led to more people living alone. However, Ms Conisbee points out that the pandemic also showed that many people prefer to live alone for lifestyle reasons. “Shorter term, the pandemic has shown that given the chance, many people prefer to live alone with a record increase in single-person households during the time. This trend may influence housing preferences, with a potential rise in demand for smaller dwellings and properties catering to individuals rather than traditional family units.”
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