Sydney Inner Suburbs Endure Sharp House Price Drops
The prime part of the market appears most affected.
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House prices in some of Sydney’s inner suburbs have lost, in some cases, more than $190,000 in the past three months to February as the market slowdown steepens with poor affordability, tighter lending and higher fixed interest rates according to the latest CoreLogic data.
The Sydney suburb of Beaconsfield, nearby the city’s airport, posted a 9.2% drop in median house values to $1.77 million, the largest percentage decline recorded in any house market in the country. Prices in Beaconsfield are now $162,662 lower than three months ago.
Elsewhere, Newtown saw values fall by 6.6% or $120,207 down to $1.821 million, Surry Hills is down 6.1% to $134,054 to $2.197 and Birchgrove lost 6% or $190,581 to 3.176 million.
According to CoreLogic’s head of research, Eliza Owen, the premium end was more volatile compared to the lower end.
“I think affordability constraints, tighter lending conditions and higher fixed rates have likely been enough to cool premium markets, and the sharpness of the fall relates to the volatility in the high end of the market, and the extremely strong run up in price growth,” she said.
Away from Sydney’s market, Melbourne has seen its own market cooling with house prices in Prahran, Cremorne, South Yarra and Windsor tumbling by more than 5% while Toorak dipped 4.7% during the same period.
According to Ms Owen, the affordable end of the market would continue to outperform the upper end as the broader market begins to slow.
“Based on historical performance of property values, I think the next 12 months should see more steady performance in affordable segments of Sydney and Melbourne,” she said.
“More affordable segments tend to have less volatility in growth rates – the highs are not as high, but the lows are not as low,” she said.
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New research suggests spending 40 percent of household income on loan repayments is the new normal
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Requiring more than 30 percent of household income to service a home loan has long been considered the benchmark for ‘housing stress’. Yet research shows it is becoming the new normal. The 2024 ANZ CoreLogic Housing Affordability Report reveals home loans on only 17 percent of homes are ‘serviceable’ if serviceability is limited to 30 percent of the median national household income.
Based on 40 percent of household income, just 37 percent of properties would be serviceable on a mortgage covering 80 percent of the purchase price. ANZ CoreLogic suggest 40 may be the new 30 when it comes to home loan serviceability. “Looking ahead, there is little prospect for the mortgage serviceability indicator to move back into the 30 percent range any time soon,” says the report.
“This is because the cash rate is not expected to be cut until late 2024, and home values have continued to rise, even amid relatively high interest rate settings.” ANZ CoreLogic estimate that home loan rates would have to fall to about 4.7 percent to bring serviceability under 40 percent.
CoreLogic has broken down the actual household income required to service a home loan on a 6.27 percent interest rate for an 80 percent loan based on current median house and unit values in each capital city. As expected, affordability is worst in the most expensive property market, Sydney.
Sydney
Sydney’s median house price is $1,414,229 and the median unit price is $839,344.
Based on 40 percent serviceability, households need a total income of $211,456 to afford a home loan for a house and $125,499 for a unit. The city’s actual median household income is $120,554.
Melbourne
Melbourne’s median house price is $935,049 and the median apartment price is $612,906.
Based on 40 percent serviceability, households need a total income of $139,809 to afford a home loan for a house and $91,642 for a unit. The city’s actual median household income is $110,324.
Brisbane
Brisbane’s median house price is $909,988 and the median unit price is $587,793.
Based on 40 percent serviceability, households need a total income of $136,062 to afford a home loan for a house and $87,887 for a unit. The city’s actual median household income is $107,243.
Adelaide
Adelaide’s median house price is $785,971 and the median apartment price is $504,799.
Based on 40 percent serviceability, households need a total income of $117,519 to afford a home loan for a house and $75,478 for a unit. The city’s actual median household income is $89,806.
Perth
Perth’s median house price is $735,276 and the median unit price is $495,360.
Based on 40 percent serviceability, households need a total income of $109,939 to afford a home loan for a house and $74,066 for a unit. The city’s actual median household income is $108,057.
Hobart
Hobart’s median house price is $692,951 and the median apartment price is $522,258.
Based on 40 percent serviceability, households need a total income of $103,610 to afford a home loan for a house and $78,088 for a unit. The city’s actual median household income is $89,515.
Darwin
Darwin’s median house price is $573,498 and the median unit price is $367,716.
Based on 40 percent serviceability, households need a total income of $85,750 to afford a home loan for a house and $54,981 for a unit. The city’s actual median household income is $126,193.
Canberra
Canberra’s median house price is $964,136 and the median apartment price is $585,057.
Based on 40 percent serviceability, households need a total income of $144,158 to afford a home loan for a house and $87,478 for a unit. The city’s actual median household income is $137,760.
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