Sydney Prime Property Prices Forecast To Keep Growing
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Sydney Prime Property Prices Forecast To Keep Growing

As the prestige residential market around the world continues to surge.

By Terry Christodoulou
Mon, Nov 22, 2021 2:33pmGrey Clock 2 min

Sydney will be the second-highest city for prime price growth in 2022 (9%), only behind Miami (10%) according to Knight Frank’s Prime Global Forecast data on prime property markets around the world.

The NSW capital is estimated to reach prime residential growth of 12% by the end of 2021, after recording 10.7% growth in the year to Q3 2021. This is in line with other global cities, with Knight Frank’s Prime Global Cities Index for Q3 2021 showing that 33% of global cities registered price growth above 10% in the same period.

With borders reopening and the return of investors combined with domestic buyers looking for second homes – the report posits that prime prices will accelerate further across Australia.

However, this is not a trend that is isolated to Australia, with Knight Frank’s data showing that 84% of global cities saw prime prices rise on an annual basis – a percentage that is growing each quarter.

Michelle Ciesielski, Knight Frank’s head of residential research indicates that the prime residential market will experience a lengthier upward swing — in line with other global cities.

“There have now been 35 consecutive quarters of uninterrupted positive annual growth in Sydney’s prime market, averaging 7.3% growth since 2013. Although we’re hearing of record prices being achieved at the very top end, the growth in the prestige market is steadily coming off a much higher footing,” said Ms Ciesielski.

“Contributing to Sydney’s prime values, the super-prime market is performing exceptionally well with many suburban records being achieved in excess of $10 million, especially for those homes located close to the water.”

Sydney wasn’t the only Australian city to perform well in the prestige market in the year to Q3 2021. All five major cities ranked in the top 23, from 45 global cities in the Prime Global Cities Index Q3 2021, averaging 9.3% annual growth – although this is still shy of the overall rate of growth for the global index at 9.5%.

While Sydney saw 10.7% annual growth in this time, Gold Coast and Perth were close behind with double-digit growth of 10.5% and 10.4%, respectively. Brisbane registered 8.4% growth, whilst Melbourne continued to pick up pace with 6.5%.

Following Sydney’s prime forecast of 9% in 2022, Gold Coast is earmarked to see the prime residential market grow by a further 8%, whilst Melbourne closer to 7%, followed by Perth and Brisbane at 6%.

Knight Frank defines the prime residential market as being the most desirable and expensive property in a given location, generally defined as the top 5% of each market by value.


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The rate tightening of 300 basis points, the largest since the early 2000s, appears to have softened spending through September, however, CoreLogic says it may be too early for a pause, with ABS business indicators data reflecting a 2.9 percent increase in wages and salaries, a growth rate not seen since 2007.

The latest increase may put a dampener on Christmas and summer holiday spending, adding another $75 a month to mortgages of $500,000. Those with mortgages of $1.5 million have seen their monthly repayments increase by $2500 since April.

Major bank forecasts expect cash rates to peak somewhere between 3.1 percent and 3.85 percent.

The RBA board will next meet in February 2023.


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