The 7 key insights into the Australian property market you need to know

Australian home values rose by 1.6 percent over the March quarter following an 8.1 percent increase in 2023, according to CoreLogic data. Historically, home prices have typically fallen as interest rates rise, but the opposite has occurred due to a lack of supply and high demand turbocharged by immigration.

While the optimists theorise that property doubles every seven years, pessimists talk about a bubble and inevitable crash. But AMP chief economist Shane Oliver says the Australian housing market “remains far more complicated than optimists and doomsters portray it to be”.

Here is a summary of Dr Oliver’s 7 key observations regarding Australian property.

1. It’s very expensive

This has been the case since the early 2000s but it’s been getting worse. House price-to-income ratios have doubled since the year 2000. The 2023 Demographia Housing Affordability Survey shows the median multiple of house prices to income at 8.2 times versus around five in the US and UK. The years taken to save a 20 percent deposit for an average full-time wage earner have doubled from five years 30 years ago to 10 years now. The expensive nature of Australian property … is leading to rising wealth and intergenerational inequality.

2. It’s very diverse

This has been seen recently with rapid relative price growth in Adelaide, Brisbane and Perth. This divergence partly reflects a combination of better housing affordability and relative population growth, with Brisbane and Perth benefitting from interstate migration.

3. Mortgage arrears remain low (for now at least)

The low level of arrears partly reflects strong lending standards in Australia combined with the strong jobs market and a high level of savings buffers coming out of the pandemic. That said, arrears are starting to pick up and the risks will rise as buffers run down, scope to cut discretionary spending is exhausted and if the labour market deteriorates significantly.

4. Interest rates still matter

The downtrend in mortgage rates since the late 1980s underpinned the surge in property prices over the same period as it enabled buyers to borrow more relative to their incomes. And rate hikes have been associated with cyclical price falls with rate cuts usually needed for upswings. But of course, the impact of interest rates can be swamped by other factors at times, as has been the case over the last year. Price gains are expected to be around five percent this year with high rates dragging but the supply shortfall supporting prices.

5. It’s chronically undersupplied

This has been the case since the mid-2000s when immigration levels, and hence population growth, surged and the supply of new homes did not keep up. The pandemic’s freeze on immigration provided a brief relief but this was offset by a fall in the number of people per household and the problem has worsened with reopening leading to record immigration levels. This has pushed underlying housing demand to around 250,000 dwellings p.a. at a time when home completions are around 170,000 dwellings a year. So, the shortfall of homes is getting worse and likely to reach 200,000 dwellings by June.

6. Forecasting swings in home prices is hard

Failed property crash calls have been a dime a dozen over the last two decades and forecasting property swings has been hard. For example, Reserve Bank Governor Michele Bullock noted last month that “I wouldn’t like to predict housing prices … every time we tried … we seem to get it wrong…”.

7. Property has similar long–term returns to shares

[Since 1926] both shares and property return around 11 percent pa. Property’s low correlation with shares, lower volatility but lower liquidity makes it a good portfolio diversifier. So, there is clearly a role for it in investors’ portfolios.

Capital city home prices have continued to rise in April despite higher interest rates and ongoing uncertainty about the outlook for inflation and the global economy.

Growth rates, however, have eased, reflecting the usual subduing effect of the lengthy April holiday month.

The national capital city median house price increased marginally by 0.2% over the April quarter to $1,297,798 compared to the March quarter, according to the latest data from My Housing Market.

Annual national house prices are, however, 10.2% higher and have now increased for 14 consecutive months.

Most capitals reported house price increases over the month, with Brisbane and Perth the top performers, each higher by 1.3%, followed by Hobart and Darwin, both up 1.2%, Adelaide up 0.2%, with Sydney steady. Melbourne prices, however, fell 0.7%, while Canberra prices fell 1.7%.

Most also report strong annual house price growth in excess of 10%, with Perth, Darwin, Brisbane, and Adelaide clearly the highest, up by 25.7%, 21.6%, 20.0% and 14.2% respectively.

National unit prices were also higher in the April quarter than in the March quarter, rising by 0.5% to $728,459, and have now increased by 8.2% compared to the April quarter 2025 result.

Brisbane was the top monthly performer in April, with unit prices rising by 1.7%, followed by Perth up 1.0%, Melbourne and Canberra each up 0.9%, Adelaide up 0.6%, and Hobart up 0.1%. Sydney unit prices were steady over the month; however, Darwin unit prices were down 0.8%.

Similar to houses, Perth, Brisbane, Adelaide and Darwin continue to record the highest annual unit price growth to April 2026, at 30.1%, 27.8%, 12.9% and 11.8%, respectively.

Dr Andrew Wilson. Photo: Giovanni Portelli Photography

Analysis

Capital city housing markets have generally reported higher home prices in April, although growth rates have eased compared to March.

Easing housing markets reflect the usual dampening effects of the lengthy April holiday month, although higher interest rates and increased uncertainty about the economic outlook have weighed on affordability and confidence.

Robust annual home price growth, however, continues for most capitals with Perth, Darwin, Brisbane, and Adelaide still reporting boomtime results.

Although 2026 is still set to see home price growth generally in most capitals, the rising spectre of further interest rate increases and elevated uncertainty over the outlook for inflation and the economy will continue to dampen affordability and confidence.

Brisbane, Adelaide, Perth and Darwin, however, are again set to lead capital city outcomes for both houses and units, but are unlikely to match the extraordinary 2025 results.

Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide continue to record higher median house prices than Melbourne, with Perth now closing in fast on Brisbane and set to lead all but Sydney.

Underlying drivers will continue to support overall housing market activity, although the outlook for RBA interest rates is more problematic, with inflation set to accelerate and economic activity to decline as a consequence of the recent sharp increase in oil prices.

The economy, however, remains strong, with a steady, still-low jobless rate, falling unemployment, continued robust job growth, and a high participation rate.

Housing demand continues to outpace a low and diminishing housing supply, and although high post-COVID migration levels have recently eased, numbers remain strong and will add to chronic housing undersupply, supporting high rents and low vacancy rates generally in capital city rental markets.

Following a period of easing in rental growth, the latest data continue to show extraordinarily low home rental vacancy rates and clear signs that rents are on the rise again.

High rents and higher prices continue to provide clear incentives for first-home buyers and investors chasing solid investment returns.

Ongoing government initiatives to support first-home buyers will increase demand and place further upward pressure on prices.

Capital city housing markets generally recorded higher house and unit prices over 2023, 2024 and surged over 2025, fuelled by rising buyer and seller confidence through sharp cuts to interest rates.

Although 2026 is again likely to see higher home prices, significant uncertainty has recently emerged about the near-term outlook for already-high interest rates and economic activity, which will generally dampen buyer and seller confidence.

Early signs are emerging in the recent weakening of home auction market clearance rates, particularly in Sydney and Melbourne.