The 7 key insights into the Australian property market you need to know

Australian home values rose by 1.6 percent over the March quarter following an 8.1 percent increase in 2023, according to CoreLogic data. Historically, home prices have typically fallen as interest rates rise, but the opposite has occurred due to a lack of supply and high demand turbocharged by immigration.

While the optimists theorise that property doubles every seven years, pessimists talk about a bubble and inevitable crash. But AMP chief economist Shane Oliver says the Australian housing market “remains far more complicated than optimists and doomsters portray it to be”.

Here is a summary of Dr Oliver’s 7 key observations regarding Australian property.

1. It’s very expensive

This has been the case since the early 2000s but it’s been getting worse. House price-to-income ratios have doubled since the year 2000. The 2023 Demographia Housing Affordability Survey shows the median multiple of house prices to income at 8.2 times versus around five in the US and UK. The years taken to save a 20 percent deposit for an average full-time wage earner have doubled from five years 30 years ago to 10 years now. The expensive nature of Australian property … is leading to rising wealth and intergenerational inequality.

2. It’s very diverse

This has been seen recently with rapid relative price growth in Adelaide, Brisbane and Perth. This divergence partly reflects a combination of better housing affordability and relative population growth, with Brisbane and Perth benefitting from interstate migration.

3. Mortgage arrears remain low (for now at least)

The low level of arrears partly reflects strong lending standards in Australia combined with the strong jobs market and a high level of savings buffers coming out of the pandemic. That said, arrears are starting to pick up and the risks will rise as buffers run down, scope to cut discretionary spending is exhausted and if the labour market deteriorates significantly.

4. Interest rates still matter

The downtrend in mortgage rates since the late 1980s underpinned the surge in property prices over the same period as it enabled buyers to borrow more relative to their incomes. And rate hikes have been associated with cyclical price falls with rate cuts usually needed for upswings. But of course, the impact of interest rates can be swamped by other factors at times, as has been the case over the last year. Price gains are expected to be around five percent this year with high rates dragging but the supply shortfall supporting prices.

5. It’s chronically undersupplied

This has been the case since the mid-2000s when immigration levels, and hence population growth, surged and the supply of new homes did not keep up. The pandemic’s freeze on immigration provided a brief relief but this was offset by a fall in the number of people per household and the problem has worsened with reopening leading to record immigration levels. This has pushed underlying housing demand to around 250,000 dwellings p.a. at a time when home completions are around 170,000 dwellings a year. So, the shortfall of homes is getting worse and likely to reach 200,000 dwellings by June.

6. Forecasting swings in home prices is hard

Failed property crash calls have been a dime a dozen over the last two decades and forecasting property swings has been hard. For example, Reserve Bank Governor Michele Bullock noted last month that “I wouldn’t like to predict housing prices … every time we tried … we seem to get it wrong…”.

7. Property has similar long–term returns to shares

[Since 1926] both shares and property return around 11 percent pa. Property’s low correlation with shares, lower volatility but lower liquidity makes it a good portfolio diversifier. So, there is clearly a role for it in investors’ portfolios.

A breathtaking view and a lush quarter-acre block are high up the wish list with any lifestyle property, but this contemporary Buderim residence takes things to another level.

Designed and built by owners Stu and Nat Faid, the Sunshine Coast home reflects their vision and incredible attention to detail.

As an architect and designer, Nat believes a prime position deserves an incredible project.

“The heart of the house is undoubtedly the living area and expansive deck. At over 100sq m and elevated more than 6m above the ground, you literally feel like you’re floating. We love how the views stretch from the Glass House Mountains along the coastline to Mooloolaba. Across the ocean, you can even see the sandbanks on Moreton Island,” she says.

While the views and the 1024sq m land parcel make their mark, it’s the suspended 12m heated shipping container swimming pool that’s making waves locally.

“When people arrive, the first thing they do is look up,” Nat adds.

After purchasing the property in 2021, the pair knew the existing house wouldn’t live up to their family of four, but they fell in love with the location and outlook so decided to adapt.

Initially, the pool’s unique design was simply a reaction to an everyday Queensland problem, but ultimately became a feature.

“The pool was at first a product of practicality. We wanted to be able to watch the kids in the pool from the house, but to do that required elevating the pool more than six meters off the ground,” Stu says.

“When we looked at the engineering required, it conflicted with our minimal-touch ethos in preserving the land and the visual aesthetic of the finished design. What followed was a lot of searching for a solution, and as luck would have it, the answer was almost on our doorstep.”

Shipping Container Pools seemed like a no-brainer answer to the pool problem. Having moved internationally multiple times, the couple saw an opportunity to weave their personal story into the fabric of their new home.

“The opportunity to incorporate a nod to that chapter of our life into the build was too good to miss,” he says.

“It also unashamedly reinforces the origins of the pool construction, which ties into the rest of the design in the house. Throughout the home, we have embraced where the old meets the new, we have not tried to blend, cover or hide the origins of the home, we have chosen instead to make sure the evolution of the house is clear to see.”

The Faids’ global family journey is evident throughout the home, from the grand Middle Eastern entry doors sourced from Dubai where the couple once lived, to the remarkable views from the Glass House Mountains to Mooloolaba.

Created to enjoy every season, the house has a space for all eventualities with an open plan living area spilling out to the full-width deck and pool, a sleek kitchen with an Ilve integrated fridge and freezer, Bosch ovens, an induction cooktop, built-in coffee machine and microwave, two dishwashers, filtered water and a butler’s pantry.

Four spacious bedrooms each have built-ins, the main features a large ensuite with twin vanities and two more bedrooms share a“Jack and Jill” style bathroom. There is also a third full bathroom.

The Buderim home is 12.5kms from Mooloolaba and the Mooloolaba River National Park with the Sunshine Coast Airport 13.5kms to the north, however Stu adds that there is rarely a reason to leave.

“It would be fair to say that apart from popping down the hill to go to the beach, we often go days without ever leaving the village. It’s really is a wonderful spot.”

Packed with mod cons, the Buderim home also features six-zone ducted air-conditioning, engineered oak floors and a double-sided Stuv wood-burning fireplace, a mudroom, heated floors and sensor lights in the bathrooms. There is also a private elevator, solar power and battery, as well as landscaped gardens and a large lock up garage and shed.

The property at 10 Orient Court, Buderim is listed with Zoe Byrne and Greg Ward from Ray White Buderim and will go to auction on September 22 at 9am at Mercedes-Benz Sunshine Coast, 65 Maroochy Blvd, Maroochydore.