The 7 key insights into the Australian property market you need to know

Australian home values rose by 1.6 percent over the March quarter following an 8.1 percent increase in 2023, according to CoreLogic data. Historically, home prices have typically fallen as interest rates rise, but the opposite has occurred due to a lack of supply and high demand turbocharged by immigration.

While the optimists theorise that property doubles every seven years, pessimists talk about a bubble and inevitable crash. But AMP chief economist Shane Oliver says the Australian housing market “remains far more complicated than optimists and doomsters portray it to be”.

Here is a summary of Dr Oliver’s 7 key observations regarding Australian property.

1. It’s very expensive

This has been the case since the early 2000s but it’s been getting worse. House price-to-income ratios have doubled since the year 2000. The 2023 Demographia Housing Affordability Survey shows the median multiple of house prices to income at 8.2 times versus around five in the US and UK. The years taken to save a 20 percent deposit for an average full-time wage earner have doubled from five years 30 years ago to 10 years now. The expensive nature of Australian property … is leading to rising wealth and intergenerational inequality.

2. It’s very diverse

This has been seen recently with rapid relative price growth in Adelaide, Brisbane and Perth. This divergence partly reflects a combination of better housing affordability and relative population growth, with Brisbane and Perth benefitting from interstate migration.

3. Mortgage arrears remain low (for now at least)

The low level of arrears partly reflects strong lending standards in Australia combined with the strong jobs market and a high level of savings buffers coming out of the pandemic. That said, arrears are starting to pick up and the risks will rise as buffers run down, scope to cut discretionary spending is exhausted and if the labour market deteriorates significantly.

4. Interest rates still matter

The downtrend in mortgage rates since the late 1980s underpinned the surge in property prices over the same period as it enabled buyers to borrow more relative to their incomes. And rate hikes have been associated with cyclical price falls with rate cuts usually needed for upswings. But of course, the impact of interest rates can be swamped by other factors at times, as has been the case over the last year. Price gains are expected to be around five percent this year with high rates dragging but the supply shortfall supporting prices.

5. It’s chronically undersupplied

This has been the case since the mid-2000s when immigration levels, and hence population growth, surged and the supply of new homes did not keep up. The pandemic’s freeze on immigration provided a brief relief but this was offset by a fall in the number of people per household and the problem has worsened with reopening leading to record immigration levels. This has pushed underlying housing demand to around 250,000 dwellings p.a. at a time when home completions are around 170,000 dwellings a year. So, the shortfall of homes is getting worse and likely to reach 200,000 dwellings by June.

6. Forecasting swings in home prices is hard

Failed property crash calls have been a dime a dozen over the last two decades and forecasting property swings has been hard. For example, Reserve Bank Governor Michele Bullock noted last month that “I wouldn’t like to predict housing prices … every time we tried … we seem to get it wrong…”.

7. Property has similar long–term returns to shares

[Since 1926] both shares and property return around 11 percent pa. Property’s low correlation with shares, lower volatility but lower liquidity makes it a good portfolio diversifier. So, there is clearly a role for it in investors’ portfolios.

Property has always been about more than buying and selling. A home can represent a fresh start, a long-term investment, an architectural idea or a connection to a particular neighbourhood. Even when people are not planning a move, many still enjoy following the market, researching local areas and discovering the stories behind remarkable homes.

Atlas Real Estate is responding to that wider interest by creating more ways for people to engage with property. Bringing listings, market information, local perspectives and lifestyle stories together, Atlas offers a destination for anyone curious about homes and the communities surrounding them.

It reflects the reality that people approach real estate with different needs and motivations. One visitor might be actively searching for a new home, while another may want to understand recent results in their suburb. Others might be keeping an eye on changing market conditions, exploring an unfamiliar area or simply appreciating thoughtful architecture and premium residential design.

At atlas.com.au, those interests meet in one place. Visitors can browse properties for sale and recent results, while also exploring market insights, featured homes, local stories and introductions to the people behind Atlas. The result is an experience designed to remain relevant before, during and after a traditional property transaction.

“We’re reimagining real estate around how people actually engage with property today — bringing together market insight, exceptional homes, local perspective and lifestyle in a way that feels more relevant and useful,” says Michael Coombs, Director of Atlas Real Estate.

That approach recognises that an interest in property rarely begins on the day someone decides to buy or sell. A future buyer may spend months learning about suburbs, monitoring prices and refining their sense of what they want. A homeowner might follow nearby sales to understand the changing value and character of their area. An investor may be looking for broader market context, while a design enthusiast may be drawn to an exceptional renovation or a distinctive piece of architecture.

By accommodating those different forms of curiosity, Atlas aims to make engaging with real estate feel less transactional and more connected to everyday life. Property is shaped by its surroundings: the streets, businesses, landscapes and people that give a place its identity. Understanding a home therefore means looking beyond its floor plan or sales history to consider the lifestyle and community that come with it.

This broader perspective also gives local stories a meaningful role. Suburbs are constantly evolving, influenced by new businesses, changing demographics, design trends and the people who choose to make them home. Content that explores these forces can help readers build a richer understanding of an area, whether they are preparing to move there or simply want to stay informed about their own neighbourhood.

The same is true of market information. Sales results and property data are most useful when they are accessible and supported by context. Bringing recent results together with insights and local knowledge can help people follow the market on their own terms, without suggesting that every visit must lead immediately to a transaction.

For Atlas, this thinking forms part of “Real Estate, Reimagined”, its broader brand campaign focused on using brand, creativity and technology to deliver a more relevant, useful and human real estate experience. Rather than treating technology as an end in itself, the emphasis is on how it can make property easier and more engaging to explore.

That human focus matters because real estate decisions are often closely tied to significant moments in people’s lives. A move may be connected to a growing family, a new job, a change in lifestyle or a long-held ambition. Even outside those milestones, homes and neighbourhoods remain a source of interest because they reflect how people live and how communities develop.

Atlas’s approach makes room for both the practical and aspirational sides of that interest. Readers can seek out information with a clear goal in mind or browse simply because a property, place or story captures their attention. In either case, they can move easily between homes, results, market perspectives and local inspiration.

The ambition is not to redefine why people care about property, but to reflect the many reasons they already do. By combining useful information with engaging editorial content, Atlas is creating a place for buyers, sellers, homeowners, investors and the property-curious alike.

Whatever brings you to property, discover more at atlas.com.au