The Australian locations where homeowners are selling at a loss

Loss-making resales of homes and investment properties held for less than three years are on the rise, indicating more stress in the marketplace amid high interest rates and the cost-of-living crisis. CoreLogic data shows that of the 86,000 resales during the third quarter of 2023, 6.6 percent were sold at a loss after less than three years of ownership. This is up from 3.6 percent in the September quarter of 2022 and represents a 10-year high, according to CoreLogic’s head of research, Eliza Owen.

Properties held for three years or less represented one in five of all loss-making resales, according to the report. These types of sales were seen in many markets across the country. However, the areas recording the highest portion of these sales were Melbourne–Inner at 4.1 percent, Melbourne–West at 3.7 percent and Sydney’s Central Coast at 3.6 percent. The median loss for these resales was $30,000.

Most of the loss-making resales among properties held for less than three years were houses, at 64.8 percent. Ms Owen said this was quite a different trend to all loss-making resales across all tenure periods. On that broader basis, more of the overall loss-making resales were apartments at 70.9 percent.

It is a commonly held view among property experts that real estate must be held over the long term to achieve strong capital growth. This is partly because property prices typically move in cycles that can take several years to complete. Property is also an asset class that involves high entry and exit costs such as stamp duty, legal fees, marketing costs and agents’ commissions. This makes selling after only short periods of ownership undesirable, indicating that those who are choosing to do this are likely to be experiencing financial stress.

During the second half of 2023, thousands of mortgages rolled over from fixed periods of two or three years at interest rates below 2 percent or 3 percent to variable rates of above 5 percent or 6 percent. Some of these sales may reflect the ‘mortgage cliff’ effect of this change. Looking ahead, Ms Owen pointed out that the Reserve Bank of Australia is forecasting unemployment to rise to 4.2% by the end of 2024 and “this will test serviceability, and may lead to an increase in motivated selling for mortgagors with high debt levels and low savings buffers”.

Ms Owen also emphasises that short-term loss-making resales make up only a small portion of the Australian housing market and this was not expected to change. “This is ultimately a small share of mortgagors, so the portion of short–term resales is not expected to grow substantially from where it is now. Ongoing increases in home values nationally should contain the rate of loss-making short–term resales, though capital growth conditions were looking weaker across Sydney and Melbourne to the end of [2023],” she said.

OTTAWA–The nascent recovery in Canada’s housing market has become a casualty of the trade dispute with the U.S.

The latest national home-resale data are due out Tuesday, but early indications from several big regional real-estate boards suggest March was overall another down month as many prospective buyers exercised caution.

The recent weakness in home sales has dimmed the previously brighter outlook for the property market coming into 2025, when buyers were encouraged by the Bank of Canada’s aggressive interest-rate cuts.

“The chills the U.S. trade war has sent through participants in the housing market are getting frostier,” said Robert Hogue , assistant chief economist at Royal Bank of Canada.

Hogue said resales are down materially in a number of markets two months running, and home prices in several markets are coming under pressure as inventories rise. And although Canada was spared additional levies when President Trump unveiled so-called reciprocal tariffs on dozens of countries earlier this month, no meaningful rebound is likely so long as trade uncertainty lingers, he said.

Home buyers in Toronto, Canada’s most populous city and the country’s financial hub, aren’t turning up for the usual spring pickup in property-market activity.

Sales in the Greater Toronto Area slumped 23.1% in March from a year earlier, as new listings for the region jumped close to 29%, according to the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board. That marked the worst month of resales since 1998.

The board’s chief information officer, Jason Mercer , said many potential home buyers were likely taking a wait-and-see approach given the economic worries as well as a pending federal election. “Homebuyers need to feel their employment situation is solid before committing to monthly mortgage payments over the long term,” he said, adding that ownership has become more affordable and prices in the area fell about 3.8% year on year in March.

Uncertainty is also weighing on the housing market in Calgary, the biggest city in oil-rich Alberta. The city’s real-estate board said realtors reported a 19% drop in sales of existing homes from last year, with a similar trend of improving supply and a sharp increase in the average number of days that homes were on the market.

On the West Coast, home sales registered in the metro Vancouver area of British Columbia were the lowest for March since 2019, falling 13.4% on a year earlier and coming in close to 37% below the 10-year seasonal average, while active listings continued to rise.

There are some areas of resilience. The Quebec Professional Association of Real Estate Brokers said total sales in the province were up 9% year on year in March. Still, RBC’s Hogue estimated Montreal sales in March were down about 15% from December seasonally adjusted, effectively rolling back the advance since the end of last summer.

The most recent national data for the country, from the Canadian Real Estate Association, showed resales dropped 9.8% month over month in February, when homebuyers may also have been put off by harsh winter storms in parts of the country. That marked the sharpest fall since May 2022 and brought the level of sales to their lowest level since November 2023, snapping signs that activity had been picking up in recent months.

Rishi Sondhi , an economist at Toronto-Dominion Bank, in a recent report estimated the country was tracking toward a double-digit quarterly decline in Canadian home sales and a mid-single-digit drop in Canadian average home prices for the first three months of 2025. That is much weaker than a pre-Trump inauguration forecast made in December that projected a loosening in federal mortgage rules, lower interest rates and continued economic growth would fuel a modest gain in sales and prices.

Central-bank officials are set to decide Wednesday on monetary policy, but they have signaled a cautious approach to rates as they balance the prospect of tariffs stoking price pressures against the likelihood that they will dampen demand and weigh on the economy. That could mean the Bank of Canada will pause after seven straight cuts to its policy rate.

Housing is a hot topic for party leaders campaigning ahead of the April 28 election, with both the incumbent Liberal Party and opposition Conservatives proposing tax cuts and incentives to encourage buyers and builders.

The outlook for new homes has also dimmed with the tariff threat. The value of residential-building permits issued in February fell 2.9% from a month prior, adding to a retreat in January that took back some of the surge in intentions in the final month of last year, Statistics Canada data last week showed.

The Australian locations where homeowners are selling at a loss

The portion of properties sold at a loss within three years of ownership has almost doubled in one year

Early indications from several big regional real-estate boards suggest March was overall another down month.