The real driver of Australian population growth

Australia’s population grew by 2.5 percent to 26.8 million people over the 12 months ending 30 September, according to new figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). This was an annual increase of 659,800 people, with migrants making up 83 percent of the increase at 548,800. Natural increase, which is births minus deaths, contributed to a net gain of 111,000 people.  

Natural increase was 3.9 percent lower than the same period in 2022, reflecting a trend in Australian women having fewer babies. Migration was 60.3 percent higher than the same period in 2022, however the data from this period was impacted by the border closure until February 2022. Most migrants arriving in the 12 months to 30 September 2023 were international students and workers on temporary visas. The overwhelming majority of migrants are coming from India, China, and the Philippines. Of the 548,800 net migrants that relocated here over the 12 months, 34 percent settled in New South Wales, 29.5 percent settled in Victoria and 16 percent settled in Queensland.

Western Australia had the fastest population growth rate, up 3.3 percent, followed by Victoria at 2.9 percent, Queensland 2.7 percent, New South Wales 2.3 percent, Australian Capital Territory 2.1 percent and South Australia 1.7 percent. The lowest growth was in Tasmania at 0.3 percent.

Drivers of Western Australia’s highest population growth rate since 2009 include record employment and a booming economy. The state government upgraded its state final demand forecasts for FY24 from 3 percent to 4.5 percent in December.

While the biggest contributor to the state’s population growth is international migration, Professor Amanda Davies, Head of Social Sciences at the University of Western Australia, comments that strong interstate migration is resulting from “‘push’ factors operating in major east coast states, and in particular high costs of living and housing.” Strong buyer demand has pushed the Perth median house price up 18.6 percent, which is the strongest annual rate of growth anywhere in Australia.

The Perth median house price is $718,560, according to CoreLogic. Real Estate Institute of Western Australia CEO Cath Hart commented: “We can expect to see house prices and rents continue to rise, homes to sell and lease quickly, and the rental vacancy rate to remain low for some time yet.”

The ABS also tracks interstate migration, which is the movement of Australian residents between states and territories. Over the 12 months to 30 September, Queensland had the highest rate of net interstate migration at 32,625 people, followed by Western Australia with 11,233.

The state that lost the most residents was New South Wales, with a net 33,302 people moving elsewhere and the bulk of them departing Sydney. This net outflow is much higher than other parts of Australia. The second highest loss through interstate migration was in the Northern Territory with 3,606. Victoria lost just 1,119 people. NSW Productivity Commissioner Peter Achterstraat AM recently warned that Sydney is losing many residents aged in their 30s and 40s due to unaffordable property values. He says Sydney “could become known as the city with no grandchildren”.