‘We got things wrong’: Lowe defends his legacy

Outgoing Reserve Bank governor Philip Lowe has defended his legacy in his final speech in the top job, insisting he is not to blame for Australia’s soaring home prices.

Dr Lowe’s final few years at the RBA have been characterised by rapidly rising interest rates, made harder for borrowers to swallow by his earlier forecasts that an upward shift would not commence until 2024.

The cash rate began rising in May last year and is now a staggering 4 percent higher following a record run of hikes, the swiftest since the 1980s, but Dr Lowe is unrepentant.

“The issue that has defined my term more than any other is the forward guidance about interest rates that was provided during the pandemic,” he said in an address on Thursday.

“That guidance was widely interpreted as a commitment, rather than a conditional statement, that interest rates would not increase until 2024.”

Red hot inflation offered the RBA no other choice than to begin a dramatic tightening cycle. He repeated his belief that his assurance of rates remaining on hold was never a firm one.

“There has been much criticism since [rates increased], especially by those who borrowed during the pandemic based on our guidance,” he said.

“I ask that people keep in mind the circumstances we faced in 2020. It was a very scary time. There were credible projections that the unemployment rate would rise to 15 percent and that there would be a deep and lasting economic contraction.
“And even well into 2021, large parts of country were still in stringent lockdowns.”

However, Dr Lowe conceded that “with the benefit of hindsight”, he now believes the RBA “did do too much” in terms of implementing emergency measures in the early stages of COVID.

“But hindsight is a wonderful thing,” he said. “We got some things right, but we got other things wrong.”

He rejects the view that keeping rates at a record low of 0.1 per cent for so long is responsible for home prices rising at one of the fastest paces in history during 2021.

“Rather, it is the outcome of the choices we have made as a society – choices about where we live, how we design our cities and zone and regulate urban land, how we invest in and design transport systems, and how we tax land and housing investment.”

One big thing Dr Lowe does not regret is increasing the cash rate in a bid to get a handle on inflation, acknowledging the move as “unpopular” with much of the public but declaring it “the right thing to do”.

He took a final parting shot at the media, which he claimed had inflamed tensions with “clickbait” news about rates, fuelling “vitriol [and] personal attacks”.

Dr Lowe has spent 43 years at the RBA and the past seven as governor. He officially steps away next week, replaced by current deputy governor Michele Bullock.

Economists forecast her first change to rates will be some time in 2024 – and will likely be a reduction, based on current fiscal indicators.

The Reserve Bank had little choice but to raise interest rates again this week.

Inflation was already proving stubborn before the latest Middle East instability added further pressure to energy prices and supply chains.

Housing inflation alone has averaged six per cent over the past year, remaining one of the single biggest contributors to CPI.

But while the focus remains on rates, the deeper problem is structural and far more dangerous.

Australia is not building enough homes, and the conditions required to fix that are deteriorating simultaneously.

Construction costs remain elevated. Builders are increasingly unwilling to absorb contract risk. Labour shortages persist.

Capital is becoming more expensive. And as borrowing capacity weakens and sentiment softens, fewer projects are becoming financially viable.

The result is a self-reinforcing cycle.

The RBA raises rates to fight inflation. Higher rates reduce development feasibility. Fewer projects start. Housing supply tightens further. Rents rise. Inflation persists. The RBA raises rates again.

The only long-term solution is supply, yet Australia remains nowhere near the National Housing Accord target of 240,000 new dwellings a year.

Completion continues to lag approvals, meaning many projects approved on paper are simply never making it out of the ground.

That gap matters enormously because housing is not just another sector of the economy.

Around two-thirds of Australian household wealth is tied to property, while the sector underpins millions of jobs and related industries. Weakness here quickly spreads beyond real estate.

We are already seeing signs of stress. Auction clearance rates in Sydney and Melbourne have softened, borrowing capacity has declined, and parts of the market are experiencing price corrections as confidence weakens.

At the same time, policymakers continue to debate tax measures such as changes to negative gearing and capital gains tax discounts, despite fears that such reforms could drive private capital out of the rental market at precisely the moment when supply is most constrained.

This is the paradox at the centre of Australia’s housing crisis.

Demand for property remains extraordinarily high, yet the economic conditions required to actually build new housing are worsening.

The Reserve Bank cannot solve that problem alone.

Monetary policy cannot accelerate planning approvals, reduce construction costs or create more tradies. It can only raise the cost of money until something eventually breaks.

And increasingly, that “something” looks like the development pipeline itself.

Paul Miron is the Co-Founder & Fund Manager of Msquared Capital.

‘We got things wrong’: Lowe defends his legacy

The RBA governor is due to step down on September 17

Rising rates, construction inflation and shrinking investor confidence are pushing Australia deeper into a dangerous housing spiral that monetary policy alone cannot fix.