What A Commute in a Car-Free City Might Be Like

Look out any window in most urban areas and you’ll see streets lined with parked cars. Every year the arteries of the world’s biggest cities become more clogged. By 2030, 60% of the world’s population will live in cities, analysts estimate, creating a string of global megacities even more crowded and polluted than today. How will they organise daily life to promote safety, efficiency and the well-being of residents?

Now imagine a city without private cars. A city where transportation is emissions-free, largely self-driving and connected to the internet. A city where cars, as well as taxis, buses, trains and bicycles, are shared. Instead of parked cars and concrete, city streets might be filled with mini parks, markets and more.

Several trends are visible today that could bring about these reimagined transportation networks: the rising popularity of electric cars, a regulatory environment that is increasingly geared toward fighting climate change, and advances in technology from electric and self-driving vehicles to the spread of the Internet of Things.

Many obstacles exist. Autonomous cars are still more theory than reality today. Cities will have to pony up huge investments in new public transportation infrastructure. They will have to make technology and policy choices today to make car-free living easier for residents, including restricting private car ownership within the city, levying higher taxes on carbon emissions, making parking prohibitively expensive and shifting regulations and urban planning to favour shared, autonomous vehicles. And it isn’t certain that the public will give up owning cars.

The Massachusetts Institute of Technology, McKinsey & Co., Deloitte, KPMG and others have outlined visions of what a city with greatly reduced personal car ownership would look like. Follow the urban dweller Bonnie as she heads home from a day at the office in 2040.

The Internet of Everything

Before leaving the office, Bonnie books her commute—a shared bicycle to an automated train to a driverless shuttle that will take her to her door—via an app that is connected to a vast Internet of Things. Much of this technology has been available for years, but in 2040 it is ubiquitous.

Buildings, vehicles and transportation infrastructure are all linked, able to share widely and easily on ultrafast wireless networks. Self-driving vehicles communicate with traffic lights, for example, easing the flow of traffic and potentially preventing jams. Bonnie and other pedestrians wear connected clothing that warns vehicles of their presence, preventing many accidents and identifying her to the transportation she uses so her digital preferences can be installed automatically. Two big trends in the 2020s and 2030s drove this shift: the digitization of everything and the drive to eliminate greenhouse-gas emissions by 2050.

A view of the city

When she looks out her office window, Bonnie sees only a handful of cars. The din of engines and honking horns has almost disappeared: Vehicles operating within city limits are electric, and public transportation and taxis are self-driving. Years ago, Bonnie’s city restricted private vehicle ownership within city limits and greatly expanded mass transit to fill the need. Where parked cars once clogged the streets, the city planted trees and built networks of hyperlocal transportation hubs.

Head to the hub

Bonnie heads toward a local transportation hub, a drop-off point for several modes of transportation residents use to get around the neighbourhood, including shared bicycles, electric scooters and driverless shuttles. Faster trains and robotaxis are available for longer distances.

The app-based commute

When Bonnie approaches the parked bicycle, it recognises her and unlocks. Apps connecting modes of transportation emerged more than 20 years earlier, but by 2040 they are more connected—platforms for collaboration between transportation companies and businesses offering services, such as charging vehicles on the fly, repairs, or advertising tailored toward individual passengers using augmented reality. Bonnie has chosen the premium option for her travel plan, a monthly subscription for all forms of transportation.

Personal preferences

Bonnie’s premium plan includes a private pod on the train. After arriving at the station and taking her seat, the train’s network identifies her and adjusts the environment—the seat, lighting and temperature—according to her profile preferences. Screens in the pod automatically connect to her digital world, allowing her to instantly access work files or personal apps. She can check the fridge at home, order groceries online and time a delivery to arrive at her destination when she does.

Board the shuttle

Bonnie gets off at the train station near her home. A self-driving shuttle is waiting to take her the last stretch of the way. Like the train, it adjusts the environment to her preferences and grants her access to her digital world. Bonnie has a conference call with a customer in her calendar. The shuttle establishes the connection at the appropriate time and Bonnie conducts her meeting. At the end of the drive, the vehicle’s digital assistant asks Bonnie about several appointments in her calendar the next day and whether she needs to book a shuttle. Also, her daughter has scheduled a pod to go to her karate lesson but still needs Bonnie’s permission to complete the booking.

Arrive home

Bonnie’s shuttle informs her smart house of her coming arrival. When she gets home, the lights are on and the temperature is just how she likes it. A drone carrying the groceries she ordered en route is waiting for her.

Two visions

If cities make the kinds of choices that Bonnie’s hometown did, 40% of all kilometres travelled by 2040 will be with shared mobility services, McKinsey predicts. If not, McKinsey says, the lack of regulation promoting emissions-free and connected transportation and inertia in consumer behaviour could result in a world in which private car ownership falls only 10% by 2040. That will make it even harder to roll out technology and transport system changes and reduce emissions.

Charities, distant relatives and even pets are benefiting from surprise inheritances. They can thank people without children.

Not having children is becoming more common, both among millennials and older people. A July Pew Research Center analysis found that 20% of U.S. adults age 50 and older hadn’t had children.

And many of these people don’t have wills. An AARP survey found half of childless people age 50-plus who live alone have a will, compared with 57% of others that age. Those without wills have less control over what happens to their money, which often ends up in the hands of people who don’t expect it.

This phenomenon of a surprise inheritance is common enough that it has a name: the laughing heir .

“All they do is get the money and go, ‘Ah ha ha, look at that,’ ” said Michael Ettinger , an estate lawyer in New York.

Kelley Gilpin McKeig, a 64-year-old healthcare-industry consultant in Ridgefield, Wash., received a phone call several years ago saying her cousin Nick Caldwell left behind money in a savings account. They hadn’t been in touch for 20 years.

“I thought it was a scam,” she said. “Nobody else in our family had heard that he had passed.”

She hunted down his death certificate and a news article and learned he had died about a year and a half before in a workplace accident.

Caldwell, who was in his 50s, had died without a will. His estate was split among cousins and an uncle. It took about two years for the money to be distributed because of the paperwork and court approval involved. Gilpin McKeig’s share was $2,300.

Afterward, she updated her will to make sure what she has doesn’t go to “just anybody down the line, or cousins I don’t care about.”

Who inherits

There are trillions of dollars at stake as baby boomers age.

Most people leave their money to spouses and children when they die. A 2021 analysis of Federal Reserve survey data found that 82% of heirs’ inheritances came from parents.

People with no children say they want to leave a greater share of their estates to charity, friends and extended family , according to research by two Yale law professors that surveyed 9,000 U.S. adults.

Rebecca Fornwalt, a 33-year-old writer, created a trust after landing a book deal. While her heirs are her parents, her backup heirs include her sister and about a half-dozen close friends. She set aside $15,000 for the care of each of her two dogs.

Susan Lassiter-Lyons , a financial coach in Florence, Ariz., said one childless client is leaving equal interests in her home to her two nephews. Another is leaving her home to a man she has been friends with for a long time.

“She broke his heart years ago and she feels guilted into leaving him property,” Lassiter-Lyons said.

A client who is a former escort estranged from her family is leaving her estate to two friends and to charity.

Lassiter-Lyons, who doesn’t have children, set up a trust for her two dogs should she and her wife die. The pet guardian, her wife’s sister, would live in their house while taking care of the dogs. When the dogs die, she inherits the house.

In the Yale study, people without descendants—children or grandchildren—intended to give 10% of their estates to charity, on average, more than triple the intended amount of those with descendants.

The Jewish Community Foundation of Los Angeles, which manages $1.3 billion of assets, a few years ago added an “heirless donors” section to its website that profiles donors and talks about building a legacy.

“Fifteen years ago, we never talked about child-free donors at all,” said Lew Groner , the foundation’s vice president for marketing.

In the absence of a will, heirs are determined by state law . Assets can wind up in the state’s hands. In New York, for example, $240 million in unclaimed funds over the past 10 years has arrived from estates of the deceased, not including real estate, according to the state comptroller’s office. In California, it is $54.3 million.

Hard questions

Financial advisers say a far bigger concern than who gets what is making sure there is enough money and support for a comfortable old age, because clients without children can’t call on them for help.

“I hope there is something left to leave,” said Stephanie Maxfield, a 43-year-old therapist in southern Colorado. “But if there isn’t, I think that’s OK, too.”

She said she would like to leave something to her partner’s nieces and nephews, as well as animal shelters and domestic-violence shelters. Her best friend is a beneficiary.

Choosing an estate executor and who would handle money and health decisions on your behalf can be difficult when you don’t have children, financial advisers say. Using a promised inheritance as a reward for taking care of you when you are older isn’t a good solution, said Jay Zigmont , an investment adviser focused on childless people.

“Unfortunately, it is relatively common to see family members who are in the will decide to opt for cheaper medical care (or similar decisions) in order to protect what they will be inheriting,” he said in an email.

Kirsten Tompkins, who is from Birmingham, U.K., and works in consulting, along with her husband divided their estate among their dozen nieces and nephews.

Choosing heirs was the easy part. What is hard is figuring out whom to ask for help as she and her husband get older, she said.

“A lot of us are at an age where we are playing that role for our parents,” the 50-year-old said, referring to tasks such as providing tech support and taking parents to medical appointments. “Who is going to do that for us?”