What the experts say the Federal Government's budget means for the Australian housing market

The $11.3 billion Homes for Australia plan unveiled in this week’s Federal Budget includes an additional $1 billion in funding – on top of $500 million previously pledged – to help the states and territories fast-track the building of ‘enabling infrastructure’ such as new roads, sewers and energy, water and community infrastructure to create more areas for buyers to build their new homes.

Treasurer Dr Jim Chalmers handed down his third budget this week (Photo by Martin Ollman/Getty Images)

To support this goal, the Federal Government has also committed $90.6 million to grow Australia’s construction workforce, including 20,000 new fee-free places at TAFE and VET vocational colleges, as well as more skilled migrant visas. CoreLogic research director Eliza Owen commented: “This could add to labour supply to the tune of 22,000 workers, representing 1.7 percent growth in an industry where employment had an average quarterly increase of 0.7 percent over the past decade.”

More construction workers are desperately needed not only to help the Federal Government reach its target of 1.2 million new homes within five years, but also to offset the impact of construction company insolvencies. Ray White economist Nerida Conisbee points out that construction insolvencies continue to rise, with the latest ASIC figures showing 2,758 construction companies entered external administration over the 12 months to 31 March 2024.

Ray White economist Nerida Conisbee says insolvencies remain high in the building industry

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said the budget encouraged the states and territories to “kick start building”. He commented: “This Budget means more tradies, fewer barriers to construction, less talk and more homes. This isn’t about one suburb or one city or one state. It’s a challenge facing Australians everywhere and it needs action from every level of government.”

The Federal Government is also seeking to reduce demand in the private rental market following a 43.5 percent surge in the national median rent from $437 per week in August 2020 to $627 per week today, according to CoreLogic. The budget provides money for more social housing, plus a plan to make universities build more student accommodation, thereby removing some demand in the private rental market from low-income workers and domestic and international students.

Budget measures include an additional $423.1 million for the National Agreement on Social Housing and Homelessness, taking total funding to $9.3 billion over five years, under which more social housing will be built and existing housing repaired. REA senior economist Paul Ryan said: “All up, the government expects to support the building of 55,000 new social and affordable homes by 2029 – representing a 12 percent increase in the total number of available homes across the country.”

The plan to legislate new requirements for universities to build more accommodation follows a huge surge in immigration, with an almost 550,000 net increase in migrants over the 12 months to 30 September 2023, the bulk of which were international students and temporary workers.

Commonwealth Rent Assistance is being increased for the second year by 10 percent this time, following a 15 percent increase in last year’s budget. The two boosts represent about a $35 per week increase in assistance to almost one million Australians. The Budget also includes $1 billion for crisis and transitional accommodation for domestic violence victims and youth in distress.

AMP chief economist Dr Shane Oliver said the budget’s housing measures were unlikely enough to meet the goal of building 1.2 million new homes over five years. Dr Oliver said the supply shortfall was set to remain “unless immigration plunges”. Treasurer Jim Chalmers says net overseas migration next year is expected to be half what it was this year.

Dr Oliver said the budget’s housing measures were also unlikely to alter the outlook for home prices. He expects modest growth this year. Median dwelling values have already risen 2.2 percent between January 1 and April 30, following an 8.1 percent lift in 2023.

Australia’s housing crisis will not be solved by first-home buyer incentives or tax changes alone, with leading property figures warning governments must tackle supply constraints if affordability is to improve.

Speaking at the Kanebridge Quarterly Property Leadership Summit in Sydney last week, expert project marketing specialist Sam Elbanna, property investor and fund manager Paul Miron and property consultant Karla McNeice said that a lack of housing supply remained the central issue facing the market.

Elbanna, Director of CPM Realty with more than 30 years’ experience in project sales, argued that successive governments had focused too heavily on stimulating demand rather than addressing the barriers preventing new housing from being delivered.

“The misconception is that politicians think the way to solve the housing crisis is to drive demand,” he said.

“The reality is that’s not the way. This is a supply-side problem, and it needs to be solved on the supply side.”

Drawing on his experience in project sales, Elbanna said policies designed to help first-home buyers often had unintended consequences, pointing to previous grants that ultimately flowed through to higher property prices.

Instead, he said developers were facing increasing red tape, approval delays and rising costs, which were discouraging new housing supply.

“In the absence of stock, demand exceeds supply,” he said.

Miron, a Co-Founder and Fund Manager of Msquared Capital, said the housing debate had become overly focused on tax policy while overlooking broader structural issues.

He argued that affordability challenges stemmed from a combination of factors, including planning constraints, supply shortages, migration levels and interest rates.

“No-one can be 100 per cent certain on the real reason for property prices is going up,” he said.

“The reason why property prices are higher is a combination of interest rates, lack of supply, migration, vacancy rates and maybe taxes play a role.”

Miron was critical of recent federal housing policy changes, warning they could reduce the number of new homes being built and further constrain supply that was even highlighted in the budget.

He also highlighted the importance of the property sector to the broader economy, noting that residential real estate and related industries employed more than one million Australians.

McNeice, who advises developers on sales strategy and market intelligence, said understanding buyers had become increasingly important as affordability pressures intensified.

While affordability remained a major consideration, she said today’s buyers were focused on value rather than simply price.

“People are looking for value for money,” she said.

She said buyers were increasingly evaluating factors such as transport connections, walkability, nearby amenities and flexible living spaces that could accommodate changing family needs.

“What infrastructure is going on? Can I walk to the shops? Can I meet people at the local cafe?” she said.

The panel also discussed the mounting pressures facing developers, with Elbanna arguing that many projects become financially unviable from the moment a site is purchased.

“The viability of a development happens at the moment the site is bought,” he said.

He said rising construction costs, higher interest rates and overly optimistic feasibility assumptions had left some developers exposed as market conditions changed.

While acknowledging the growing number of smaller and first-time developers entering the market, Elbanna said property development required expertise across finance, construction, marketing and legal disciplines.

“It is actually a business that requires a level of expertise,” he said.

Looking ahead, the panel agreed opportunities remained in the market despite current challenges.

Miron said property should continue to be viewed as a long-term investment and cautioned against trying to time short-term market movements.

McNeice said success would increasingly depend on identifying projects that genuinely met changing buyer expectations.

Elbanna said affordable housing remained achievable, but developers needed to deliver more than just homes.

“We can provide affordable housing in this country,” he said.

“But we’ve got to wrap that affordable housing with the things that people want.”

As Australia’s housing affordability debate intensifies, the panellists agreed on one point: without a meaningful increase in housing supply, demand-side measures alone are unlikely to solve the nation’s property challenges.

What the experts say the Federal Government’s budget means for the Australian housing market

The Albanese Government is initiating a range of measures to tackle the housing crisis, but experts fear it’s not enough

Australia’s housing affordability crisis is being fuelled by chronic undersupply, planning delays and rising development costs, as politicians continue to focus on the wrong solutions.