Which Investments Do Best—and Worst

We ran the numbers for seven recessions, and found a big difference between what fared well in the period leading up to recessions and during the recessions themselves

With academics, economists and pundits arguing over whether the U.S. is in a recession, many investors are wondering how to shift their portfolios amid the current economic uncertainty and its effect on financial markets.

If we are in a recession, what’s the best way to reposition a portfolio to maximise returns? And if this is just the lead-up to a recession, what then?

My research assistants, Zi Yang and Yuge Pang, and I decided to examine how various asset classes have fared leading up to recessions and during recessions—as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research—over the past 50 years. We studied the seven recessions in that period (1973-75, 1980, 1981-82, 1990-91, 2001, 2007-09 and 2020) and found that growth stocks led the way in the lead-up to recession. But, once we entered a recession, fixed income far outperformed equity, with international stocks providing the worst returns by far.

The asset classes we examined were U.S. high-yield bonds, U.S. long-term bonds, U.S. short-term bonds, U.S. total fixed income, U.S. growth stocks, U.S. value stocks, U.S. small-cap equity, international equity and U.S. large-cap equity.

In the nine months before the start of a recession, U.S. growth stocks delivered an average monthly return of 0.92% (a compound annualised return of 11.6%), followed by U.S. small-cap equity at 0.83% monthly (10.4% annualised). U.S. total fixed income averaged a monthly return of just 0.48% (5.9% annualised).

But in a recession, U.S. total fixed income averaged a monthly return of 0.62% (7.7% annualised), while U.S. growth stocks returned an average of 0.12% monthly (1.5% annualised). Returns were negative for every other equity class we studied.

Among the fixed-income classes, U.S. high-yield bonds are notable for having the lowest average monthly return of any of the asset classes we studied in the lead-up to a recession, at 0.14% (1.7%% annualised), and for being the only fixed-income class with a negative return during a recession, at a monthly average of negative 0.08% (minus 0.9% annualised).

On the equity side, international equity was easily the worst performer in a recession, at negative 0.93% a month on average (minus 10.6% annualised). That compares with an average monthly return of 0.80% (9.9% annualised) in the lead-up to a recession—the biggest difference for any asset class between returns before and during a recession.

The takeaway from it all, if history can tell us anything, is that once we enter a recession, the average investor best be prepared to head toward fixed-income assets and get out of international equities.

Art can transform more than just walls—it shapes mood, evokes memory, and elevates the everyday. Discover how thoughtfully curated interiors can become living expressions of personal meaning and refined luxury, from sculptural furniture to bespoke murals.

Artful Abundance: The Sophisticated Joy of Artful Interiors

Imagine a hushed hospital corridor, its sterile walls awash in the glow of flickering fluorescent lights. In that unexpected moment, a solitary Monet painting emerged—a luminous tableau of delicate lilies dancing in quiet defiance.

As the clinical austerity yielded to the graceful presence of art, this single work transformed into a vessel of solace and hope amid overwhelming uncertainty.

That moment continues to resonate with me—a vivid reminder that art transcends mere aesthetics to become a profound catalyst for emotional healing and inspiration. It is this transformative experience that fuels my passion as a biophilic interior designer.

I create environments where every element, from bespoke murals to sculptural installations, harnesses art’s power to elevate the human spirit, spark creativity, and enrich lives. Let us journey together into the world of luxurious interiors that define modern elegance.

2. Art as Wellness: A Daily Ritual of Rejuvenation

At its core, art is a daily ritual that renews both mind and spirit. Scientific research consistently confirms that nature-inspired art reduces stress, lowers blood pressure, and kindles creativity.

The simple act of beholding a tranquil landscape or a subtle floral motif transforms your space into a private retreat, offering solace amidst a hectic world.

In my practice, I meticulously select artworks chosen not only for their aesthetic appeal but also for their potent, therapeutic benefits.

Each piece serves as daily inspiration—a quiet invitation to experience calm and well-being. For example, our Hilton project demonstrates how hospitality resorts integrate nature-inspired art not only for its visual impact but also as a medium of healing; here, a collaboration with a local artist produced a masterful installation that functions both as a statement piece and a source of well-being.

3. Bespoke Brilliance: Celebrating Your Unique Narrative

Luxury design is profoundly personal. Bespoke art transcends mass-produced décor by capturing your unique story—whether through a custom mural reminiscent of your favourite botanical garden or silk wallpapers that evoke the allure of exotic landscapes.

Each personalised creation turns your walls into a living narrative of cherished memories and distinctive taste. Consider how a thoughtfully designed space can reflect your individuality and elevate your living experience.

4. Sculptural Elegance: Redefining Spatial Dynamics

Art is not confined to two dimensions. Three-dimensional sculptural works bring vitality to interiors by adding depth, texture, and tactile allure.

Picture a gracefully sculpted piece—a marble table echoing the gentle rhythm of ocean waves or a repurposed bronze branch serving as an elegant room divider.

Such statement sculptures command attention while seamlessly integrating form with function and providing a natural conversation starter in any refined space.

5. Architectural Artistry: When Structure Meets Art

A truly sophisticated home elegantly merges art with architecture. Imagine a residence where bespoke staircases curve with elegance, where hand-carved wooden doors evoke the intricate beauty of nature, and where expansive windows frame breathtaking vistas.

In these spaces, every architectural detail contributes to a cohesive canvas of artistic expression. As you envision your own home, consider how your surroundings can be thoughtfully designed to reflect both beauty and purpose.

6. Furniture as Functional Art: Merging Practicality with Mastery

In luxury interiors, even the functional becomes exceptional through artful design. Consider a one-of-a-kind, hand-carved pink marble swivel chair—a masterpiece where practicality meets refined craftsmanship.

More than just a piece of furniture, this chair sparks conversation and serves as an emblem of creative innovation and exclusivity.

Let this be a symbol of how every element in your home might reflect your dedication to exquisite artistry.

7. Digital Sophistication: The Future of Artistic Expression

In an age defined by rapid technological advancement, digital art installations offer a contemporary twist on traditional forms.

High-resolution displays now present dynamic landscapes—a cascade of waterfalls, the quiet majesty of a forest, or a serene digital ocean vista—that adapt and evolve with your environment.

This modern element seamlessly aligns cutting-edge technology with timeless aesthetics, ensuring your space remains as innovative as it is elegant.

8. Luxurious Textiles and Furnishings: The Essence of Understated Elegance

Luxury is often revealed in the details: the textures, colours, and fabrics that together create a haven of understated splendour.

Bespoke silk cushions with intricate botanical embroidery, sumptuous velvet throws that evoke tropical charm, and bedding that mirrors the ethereal beauty of cloudscapes all contribute to an atmosphere of refined elegance and comfort.

Every tactile detail is chosen to evoke warmth and stand as a testament to your taste for excellence.

9. Refined Heritage: Honouring Timeless Craftsmanship

In the realm of luxury, tradition and modernity exist in perfect harmony. Integrating timeless antiques—such as a rare Vladimir Kagan couch or a coveted Hans Wegner chair—with contemporary design creates a dialogue that honours both heritage and innovation.

These storied pieces carry with them a legacy of masterful craftsmanship, adding layers of significance and depth to your living environment. They remind us that true elegance is built upon a foundation of enduring quality.

10. The Art of Personal Meaning: Crafting Your Legacy

Ultimately, art is the language through which you express your unique legacy.

Every carefully chosen piece reflects a part of your personal journey, turning your living space into a narrative as emotionally resonant as it is visually stunning.

It imbues your environment with memories, aspirations, and the essence of who you are—a living masterpiece that evolves with time.

Reflect on how these elements might not only beautify your home but also stand as timeless expressions of your personal story.

Now is the moment to immerse yourself fully in the joy of art. Elevate your surroundings and transform your residence into your greatest masterpiece.

Your heart, your legacy, and your space deserve nothing less than extraordinary artistry.

Ozge Fettahlioglu is the founder of Cocoplum | Biophilic Design Studio and Boxareno | Custom Modular Constructions. A wellness and biophilic design leader, she creates bespoke spaces that inspire, heal, and elevate daily living. Ozge is also a board member of Biophilic Cities Australia.

Which Investments Do Best—and Worst—in a Recession