Which Investments Do Best—and Worst—in a Recession | Kanebridge News
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Which Investments Do Best—and Worst—in a Recession

Wed, Sep 7, 2022 9:19amGrey Clock 2 min
We ran the numbers for seven recessions, and found a big difference between what fared well in the period leading up to recessions and during the recessions themselves

With academics, economists and pundits arguing over whether the U.S. is in a recession, many investors are wondering how to shift their portfolios amid the current economic uncertainty and its effect on financial markets.

If we are in a recession, what’s the best way to reposition a portfolio to maximise returns? And if this is just the lead-up to a recession, what then?

My research assistants, Zi Yang and Yuge Pang, and I decided to examine how various asset classes have fared leading up to recessions and during recessions—as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research—over the past 50 years. We studied the seven recessions in that period (1973-75, 1980, 1981-82, 1990-91, 2001, 2007-09 and 2020) and found that growth stocks led the way in the lead-up to recession. But, once we entered a recession, fixed income far outperformed equity, with international stocks providing the worst returns by far.

The asset classes we examined were U.S. high-yield bonds, U.S. long-term bonds, U.S. short-term bonds, U.S. total fixed income, U.S. growth stocks, U.S. value stocks, U.S. small-cap equity, international equity and U.S. large-cap equity.

In the nine months before the start of a recession, U.S. growth stocks delivered an average monthly return of 0.92% (a compound annualised return of 11.6%), followed by U.S. small-cap equity at 0.83% monthly (10.4% annualised). U.S. total fixed income averaged a monthly return of just 0.48% (5.9% annualised).

But in a recession, U.S. total fixed income averaged a monthly return of 0.62% (7.7% annualised), while U.S. growth stocks returned an average of 0.12% monthly (1.5% annualised). Returns were negative for every other equity class we studied.

Among the fixed-income classes, U.S. high-yield bonds are notable for having the lowest average monthly return of any of the asset classes we studied in the lead-up to a recession, at 0.14% (1.7%% annualised), and for being the only fixed-income class with a negative return during a recession, at a monthly average of negative 0.08% (minus 0.9% annualised).

On the equity side, international equity was easily the worst performer in a recession, at negative 0.93% a month on average (minus 10.6% annualised). That compares with an average monthly return of 0.80% (9.9% annualised) in the lead-up to a recession—the biggest difference for any asset class between returns before and during a recession.

The takeaway from it all, if history can tell us anything, is that once we enter a recession, the average investor best be prepared to head toward fixed-income assets and get out of international equities.


Interior designer Thomas Hamel on where it goes wrong in so many homes.

Following the devastation of recent flooding, experts are urging government intervention to drive the cessation of building in areas at risk.

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RMIT expert says a conflation of factors is making the property market hard than ever to predict

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A leading property academic has described navigating the current Australian housing market ‘like steering a ship through a thick fog while trying to avoid obstacles’.

Lecturer in RMIT’s School of Property Construction and Project Management Dr Woon-Weng Wong said the combination of consecutive interest rate rises aimed at combating high inflation, higher property prices during the pandemic and cost of living pressures such as the end of the fuel excise that occurred this week made it increasingly difficult for those looking to enter or upgrade to find the right path.

“Property prices grew by approximately 25 percent over the pandemic so it’s unsurprising that much of that growth ultimately proved unsustainable and the market is now correcting itself,” Dr Wong says. “Despite the recent softening, the market is still significantly above its long-term trend and there are substantial headwinds in the coming months. Headline inflation is still red hot, and the central bank won’t back down until it reins in these spiralling prices.” 

This should be enough to give anyone considering entering the market pause, he says.

“While falling house prices may seem like an ideal situation for those looking to buy, once the high interest rates, taxes and other expenses are considered, the true costs of owning the property are much higher,” Dr Wong says. 

“People also must consider time lags in the rate hikes, which many are yet to feel to brunt of. It can take anywhere from 6 to 24 months before an initial change in interest rates eventually flows on to the rest of the economy, so current mortgage holders and prospective home buyers need to take this into account.” 


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