REVEALED: THE REAL OPPORTUNITIES IN AUSTRALIA’S PROPERTY MARKET
New research shows a widening divide across Australia and New Zealand’s property markets, with investors increasingly forced to look beyond traditional strongholds to find real returns.
3 min
By any traditional measure, Australia’s property market should be moving in sync. Instead, it is fragmenting.
New research from MaxCap, led by Head of Research Bruce Wan, paints a picture of a market no longer defined by national trends, but by sharp regional divergence, where performance gaps between cities are widening, and the smartest capital is moving accordingly.
At the top end of the ladder, Perth and southeast Queensland are surging ahead. At the other, Melbourne and Auckland are only just beginning to recover from recent downturns. And sitting squarely in the middle is Sydney, steady but constrained.
The takeaway is clear: the era of relying on headline markets is over.
The rise of the unexpected leaders
Brisbane and the broader southeast Queensland region have emerged as standout performers, driven by population growth, infrastructure investment and a sustained undersupply of housing.
According to the report, housing values in the region have continued to accelerate, supported by long-term tailwinds including the 2032 Olympic Games and a decade of relatively subdued price growth prior.
Perth is telling a similar story, albeit for different reasons. Once heavily tied to commodity cycles, the Western Australian capital is now benefiting from a broader base of economic drivers, including defence spending and sustained resource sector strength.
The result is a housing market that remains one of the strongest in the country, even as price growth begins to ease from its peak.
Sydney holds, but doesn’t lead
For Sydney, the story is more nuanced.
While prices continue to climb and the city remains Australia’s most expensive market, affordability constraints are clearly limiting its pace. Residential growth, while positive, lags behind smaller capitals, and commercial sectors are being held back by softer demand in key industries.
There are, however, signs of momentum building. New infrastructure, including the western Sydney Airport and expanded rail networks, is expected to unlock development opportunities and support future growth, particularly in emerging precincts.
Still, the report positions Sydney firmly in the “middle of the pack”, no longer the automatic frontrunner for investors.
Melbourne’s slow reset
Melbourne, once a consistent performer, has spent recent years recalibrating.
Extended lockdowns, combined with new state property taxes, have weighed heavily on investor sentiment and pricing, particularly across the commercial office sector. Residential values have also underperformed, though for different structural reasons.
Now, there are early signs of recovery.
Improved affordability, population growth and a stabilising economic backdrop are beginning to draw buyers back into the market, with both residential and commercial sectors showing tentative signs of improvement.
Auckland’s turning point
Across the Tasman, Auckland has faced its own challenges, particularly from an outflow of younger workers to Australia, which has dampened demand and stalled price growth.
But here too, the tide appears to be shifting.
A return to positive migration, lower interest rates and policy changes — including the easing of foreign buyer restrictions — are expected to support a gradual recovery, alongside renewed interest from offshore capital.
A market that rewards precision
If there is one unifying theme, it is this: broad-brush strategies no longer work.
MaxCap’s research highlights that the most compelling opportunities are increasingly found outside the traditional powerhouses of Sydney and Melbourne, requiring investors to take a more targeted, locally informed approach.
“Given these persistent performance gaps, there is plentiful scope for alpha returns, just by picking the right locations and market segments,” the report notes.
In other words, success in this market is no longer about being in property — it is about being in the right property, in the right place, at the right time.
And increasingly, that place may not be where you expect.
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A former Paul Bangay estate in the Macedon Ranges blends heritage charm, sculpted gardens and pavilion living across 108 hectares.
2 min
Seemingly borrowed from a scene in Bridgerton, or plucked from the pages of a Brontë novel, St Ambrose in the picturesque Macedon Ranges of Victoria is a masterclass in English-inspired charm.
It’s no surprise, then, that the expansive 108ha estate, whose grounds are known as The Enchanted Garden, is the former home of celebrated landscaper Paul Bangay.
St Ambrose is a property with a genuine narrative. The story begins in the 1880s, when the original bones of the modernised homestead were just a humble schoolhouse.
Just over a century later, Bangay bought the country compound and spent a decade transforming it into a magical escape showcased in his iconic book, The Enchanted Garden.
Arranged as a sequence of “rooms”, the grounds are connected by sculptured hedges and framed planting that has been handpicked to connect with the surrounding Macedon landscape.
Now the estate is back on the market via an expressions-of-interest campaign with Campbell Kilsby and Tony Ryan of Kay & Burton Bayside, who are seeking offers between $8 million and $8.8 million. According to title records, it last traded in 2023 for $8 million.
A line of perfectly placed pencil pines frames a structured forecourt, anchored by a central, calming water feature.
Beyond the landmark gardens, the residence has also been revived, crafted into a series of connected pavilions balancing old and new. The former schoolhouse is still part of the story, now integrated into the main living zones.
Inside, the house features epic proportions with high ceilings, big fireplaces, spacious rooms, and expansive glazing that captures the romance of the outdoors from every angle.
The central country kitchen has stone surfaces, an island bench, shaker cabinetry, and French doors to the patio.
There are four bedrooms, including a main suite with a quiet garden outlook, while additional bedrooms are positioned for privacy. At the far end of the vast floor plan, there is also a fully self-contained one-bedroom guest residence for extended family or visitors.
Two separate garages have raked western red cedar ceilings, polished concrete floors, and custom timber doors that open the space up for entertaining in the stately setting. Ordinarily, the garage can accommodate more than five vehicles.
In addition to the heritage-style gardens, the grounds feature a newly rebuilt 20m wet-edge pool with an integrated spa, as well as an upgraded reflection pond complete with new filtration and lighting.
Other recent behind-the-scenes renovations include hydronic heating, air conditioning, irrigation, and water storage.
St Ambrose is close to Woodend Station and is approximately 70kms from Melbourne’s CBD.
St Ambrose at 7 Wood St, Woodend, Victoria, is listed through an expressions-of-interest campaign with Kay & Burton Bayside. Offers close on May 27 at 5 pm, and the price guide is $8 million to $8.8 million.
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