Reserve Bank increases interest rates as housing values rise
The move has surprised most economists as mortgage holders take another hit
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The Reserve Bank of Australia board has decided to raise the cash rate by a further 25 basis points following its meeting this afternoon. This brings the rate up to 3.85 percent.
Citing a persistently high 7 percent inflation rate for the move, which has eased at a slower pace than hoped, the board reiterated its target of bringing inflation down to more manageable levels this year.
“The Board held interest rates steady last month to provide additional time to assess the state of the economy and the outlook,” RBA governor Philip Lowe said in a statement. “While the recent data showed a welcome decline in inflation, the central forecast remains that it takes a couple of years before inflation returns to the top of the target range; inflation is expected to be 4½ percent in 2023 and 3 percent in mid-2025.”
Most economists predicted that the board would keep rates steady again this month, following criticism that it had not given the economy enough time to absorb the impact of previous rate rises.
Roy Morgan released research from February this year stating that almost 25 percent of mortgage holders were at risk of mortgage stress. The cash rate has now increased by 50 basis points since then.
Research director at CoreLogic, Tim Lawless, said the recent rise in housing values may have contributed to the board’s decision.
“Although housing considerations aren’t part of the RBA’s mandate, a return to a more positive housing trend could be accompanied by a lift in consumer attitudes, supporting consumption and potentially keeping inflation higher for longer,” he said.
“The lift in interest rates could act to dampen some of the recent housing exuberance, although a range of other factors are likely to support the continued stabilisation in home values including low available supply, extremely tight rental conditions and higher demand via net overseas migration.”
Mr Lawless predicted that today’s increase is likely to be the last following record rises over the past 12 months.
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Excluding the Covid-19 pandemic period, annual growth was the lowest since 1992
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Australia’s commodity-rich economy recorded its weakest growth momentum since the early 1990s in the second quarter, as consumers and businesses continued to feel the impact of high interest rates, with little expectation of a reprieve from the Reserve Bank of Australia in the near term.
The economy grew 0.2% in the second quarter from the first, with annual growth running at 1.0%, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said Wednesday. The results were in line with market expectations.
It was the 11th consecutive quarter of growth, although the economy slowed sharply over the year to June 30, the ABS said.
Excluding the Covid-19 pandemic period, annual growth was the lowest since 1992, the year that included a gradual recovery from a recession in 1991.
The economy remained in a deep per capita recession, with gross domestic product per capita falling 0.4% from the previous quarter, a sixth consecutive quarterly fall, the ABS said.
A big area of weakness in the economy was household spending, which fell 0.2% from the first quarter, detracting 0.1 percentage point from GDP growth.
On a yearly basis, consumption growth came in at just 0.5% in the second quarter, well below the 1.1% figure the RBA had expected, and was broad-based.
The soft growth report comes as the RBA continues to warn that inflation remains stubbornly high, ruling out near-term interest-rate cuts.
RBA Gov. Michele Bullock said last month that near-term rate cuts aren’t being considered.
Money markets have priced in a cut at the end of this year, while most economists expect that the RBA will stand pat until early 2025.
Treasurer Jim Chalmers has warned this week that high interest rates are “smashing the economy.”
Still, with income tax cuts delivered at the start of July, there are some expectations that consumers will be in a better position to spend in the third quarter, reviving the economy to some degree.
“Output has now grown at 0.2% for three consecutive quarters now. That leaves little doubt that the economy is growing well below potential,” said Abhijit Surya, economist at Capital Economics.
“But if activity does continue to disappoint, the RBA could well cut interest rates sooner,” Surya added.
Government spending rose 1.4% over the quarter, due in part to strength in social-benefits programs for health services, the ABS said.
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