Country and coastal towns feel the pressure as city exodus continues
The Regional Australia Institute says the nation is unprepared for this shift with housing supply a key issue
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More Australians are choosing a life in the regions as local employment opportunities grow and the work-from-home era enables young families to leave expensive metropolitan housing markets for a new lifestyle on the coast or in the country where homes are more affordable.
The Regional Australia Institute (RAI) estimates 3.5 million Australians would like to set up a new life in the regions but we are unprepared for this population shift. The RAI says many regional towns are already struggling to meet the needs of their growing populations, especially in terms of housing supply and essential services like childcare and education.
“A significant societal transformation is underway in Australia,” said RAI CEO Liz Ritchie. “More people are choosing a life in the regions, and metropolitan to regional relocations remain almost 12 percent above the pre-COVID average. With all those additional people calling regional Australia home, we must now ensure that they are able to access the services they need to lead safe, productive, fulfilling lives and contribute to the nation’s success.”
The Federal Government’s newly released State of Australia’s Regions 2024 report reveals key insights as to how the country’s regional areas are changing. It notes significant population increases since the pandemic, especially around coastal cities, and strong economic growth. This is creating more jobs — so much so that regional areas are finding it difficult to fill vacancies.
Job advertisements in regional Australia more than doubled over the four years to October 2023 amid the best three years of agricultural, fisheries and forestry production on record. The tourism industry has also expanded, with more than 100,000 tourism-related businesses now operational across the regions. This is providing a direct economic boost to other local businesses as more visitors flood in. The report also notes that Australia’s net-zero ambitions will require 213,000 new clean energy jobs by 2033, and more of them will be in the regions than the cities.
Ms Ritchie said regional housing supply constraints are already “putting a handbrake on our nation’s growth and prosperity”. Regional areas have as much of a supply issue as the cities, with home values soaring at a greater rate than the capitals, and rental vacancies just as low at an average of 0.8 percent, according to the latest data from Domain. The RAI says that between March 2020 and December 2023, the median value of regional dwellings grew by 54.2 percent from $392,802 to $605,780. By comparison, capital city dwelling values increased by 29.3 percent from $643,540 to $832,193.
“While it is still more affordable to buy in the regions, for now, there is no third option if locals or metro-movers are priced out of the market, and supply fails to meet demand,” Ms Ritchie said.
Last Friday, RAI co-hosted a National Regional Housing Summit in Canberra attended by 300 industry insiders and government figures including the Federal Minister for Housing. The RAI said one of the issues highlighted was the need for housing diversity, especially medium-density developments. RAI analysis reveals that apartments make up just 2-3 percent of the total housing stock in some regional markets compared to more than 42 percent in metropolitan areas.
“Our regional communities are crying out for one- and two-bedroom properties. Workers need easily accessible and affordable accommodation, older people want to leave their large properties for easier-to-maintain apartments, and a lot more people could get into the property market if there were more entry-level options on the market,” Ms Ritchie said.
“In the NSW city of Dubbo, construction is underway on a 15-storey apartment block. This isn’t the sort of development you’d normally expect in an inland community, but it shows that demand for this type of housing is certainly there,” she said.
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Australia’s capital city housing markets have continued to record price growth, although higher interest rates and economic uncertainty are beginning to temper momentum.
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Capital city home prices have continued to rise in April despite higher interest rates and ongoing uncertainty about the outlook for inflation and the global economy.
Growth rates, however, have eased, reflecting the usual subduing effect of the lengthy April holiday month.
The national capital city median house price increased marginally by 0.2% over the April quarter to $1,297,798 compared to the March quarter, according to the latest data from My Housing Market.
Annual national house prices are, however, 10.2% higher and have now increased for 14 consecutive months.
Most capitals reported house price increases over the month, with Brisbane and Perth the top performers, each higher by 1.3%, followed by Hobart and Darwin, both up 1.2%, Adelaide up 0.2%, with Sydney steady. Melbourne prices, however, fell 0.7%, while Canberra prices fell 1.7%.
Most also report strong annual house price growth in excess of 10%, with Perth, Darwin, Brisbane, and Adelaide clearly the highest, up by 25.7%, 21.6%, 20.0% and 14.2% respectively.
National unit prices were also higher in the April quarter than in the March quarter, rising by 0.5% to $728,459, and have now increased by 8.2% compared to the April quarter 2025 result.
Brisbane was the top monthly performer in April, with unit prices rising by 1.7%, followed by Perth up 1.0%, Melbourne and Canberra each up 0.9%, Adelaide up 0.6%, and Hobart up 0.1%. Sydney unit prices were steady over the month; however, Darwin unit prices were down 0.8%.
Similar to houses, Perth, Brisbane, Adelaide and Darwin continue to record the highest annual unit price growth to April 2026, at 30.1%, 27.8%, 12.9% and 11.8%, respectively.
Analysis
Capital city housing markets have generally reported higher home prices in April, although growth rates have eased compared to March.
Easing housing markets reflect the usual dampening effects of the lengthy April holiday month, although higher interest rates and increased uncertainty about the economic outlook have weighed on affordability and confidence.
Robust annual home price growth, however, continues for most capitals with Perth, Darwin, Brisbane, and Adelaide still reporting boomtime results.
Although 2026 is still set to see home price growth generally in most capitals, the rising spectre of further interest rate increases and elevated uncertainty over the outlook for inflation and the economy will continue to dampen affordability and confidence.
Brisbane, Adelaide, Perth and Darwin, however, are again set to lead capital city outcomes for both houses and units, but are unlikely to match the extraordinary 2025 results.
Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide continue to record higher median house prices than Melbourne, with Perth now closing in fast on Brisbane and set to lead all but Sydney.
Underlying drivers will continue to support overall housing market activity, although the outlook for RBA interest rates is more problematic, with inflation set to accelerate and economic activity to decline as a consequence of the recent sharp increase in oil prices.
The economy, however, remains strong, with a steady, still-low jobless rate, falling unemployment, continued robust job growth, and a high participation rate.
Housing demand continues to outpace a low and diminishing housing supply, and although high post-COVID migration levels have recently eased, numbers remain strong and will add to chronic housing undersupply, supporting high rents and low vacancy rates generally in capital city rental markets.
Following a period of easing in rental growth, the latest data continue to show extraordinarily low home rental vacancy rates and clear signs that rents are on the rise again.
High rents and higher prices continue to provide clear incentives for first-home buyers and investors chasing solid investment returns.
Ongoing government initiatives to support first-home buyers will increase demand and place further upward pressure on prices.
Capital city housing markets generally recorded higher house and unit prices over 2023, 2024 and surged over 2025, fuelled by rising buyer and seller confidence through sharp cuts to interest rates.
Although 2026 is again likely to see higher home prices, significant uncertainty has recently emerged about the near-term outlook for already-high interest rates and economic activity, which will generally dampen buyer and seller confidence.
Early signs are emerging in the recent weakening of home auction market clearance rates, particularly in Sydney and Melbourne.
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