Australian house prices drop for third consecutive month
Sydney led the way with a 2.2% drop in the last month.
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Housing values fell in five of the eight capitals last month, according to CoreLogic’s national Home Value Index, with Australian dwelling values dropping -1.3 per cent over July. Sydney led the way with a -2.2 per cent drop, followed by Melbourne on -1.5 per cent. Hobart also recorded a -1.5 per cent decrease, followed by Canberra on -1.1 percent.
Brisbane recorded its first drop since August 2020 with values down by -0.8 per cent. Darwin saw the highest increase in values in July at +0.5 per cent, followed by Adelaide on +0.4 per cent and Perth on +0.2 per cent.
Regional markets have also softened, with NSW leading the way with a -1.1 per cent drop, followed by regional Victoria (-0.7pc), regional Queensland (-0.7pc) and regional Tasmania (-0.6pc). Regional South Australia (+1.1pc) and regional Western Australia (0.1pc) both saw values increase. Overall, regional markets continue to outperform capital cities.
CoreLogic’s research director Tim Lawless said housing values were already slowing before interest rates started rising but markets have weakened sharply since the first increase was announced on May 5.
“Although the housing market is only three months into a decline, the national Home Value Index shows that the rate of decline is comparable with the onset of the global financial crisis (GFC) in 2008, and the sharp downswing of the early 1980s,” he said. “In Sydney, where the downturn has been particularly accelerated, we are seeing the sharpest value falls in almost 40 years.”
Lenders such as Westpac and ANZ are predicting the Reserve Bank of Australia will announce another half a per cent rate increase this month, putting further pressure on cost of living.
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The insurance premium gap between flood affected and non-flood affected homes is significant
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Climate change is already affecting home values due to the impact of more severe weather events and rising home insurance premiums, and the cost of building is likely to rise as regulatory changes designed to enhance climate resilience alter building codes and zoning laws, according to a new report.
The National Housing Supply and Affordability Council describes climate change as an emerging trend that is raising the cost and complexity of supplying more housing. In its newly released State of the Housing System report, the council discusses how climate change is reducing the value of some homes when major weather events cause flooding or other natural disasters.
“The price differential between flood-affected and non-flood affected homes has been estimated to be up to 35 percent a year after a flooding event,” the report says. “Furthermore, the RBA estimates around 7.5 percent of properties are in areas that could experience price falls of at least 5 percent due to climate change by 2050.”
More than one million households are struggling to afford home insurance, and rates of non-insurance are increasing due to the cost. For example, the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission estimated that 40 percent of homes in Northern Western Australia were uninsured in 2020.
“Climate change is causing home insurance premiums to rise across Australia, adding to already elevated housing costs. Homeowners in areas considered at–risk of natural disasters are expected to see insurance premiums rise further or have difficulty obtaining insurance due to heightened risks.”
More frequent and severe weather events such as cyclones and bushfires, as well as coastal erosion and flooding from rising sea levels, present risks to housing safety. More than 3,000 homes were lost in the 2019-20 bushfire season, causing $2.3 billion in insurance losses. The report says the predicted direct cost of natural disasters to the economy and housing will be $35.2 billion per year by 2050.
Climate change and net-zero targets could raise the cost of building new homes, the report says. “Regulatory changes to enhance climate resilience will alter building codes and zoning regulations.
Developers facing higher compliance costs may have difficulties meeting updated standards, potentially delaying or reducing housing availability.”
However, the report says the increased cost of building a home with climate-resistant materials and eco-friendly features is more than offset by lower energy costs over a property’s lifetime. The current minimum energy efficiency requirements within the National Construction Code are estimated to deliver a household–level benefit-to-cost ratio of 1.37, according to the report.
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