Australian residential property market is on the up in capital cities
The local landscape is still hard to predict as interest rate rises loom
The local landscape is still hard to predict as interest rate rises loom
The property downturn in Australia may have turned a corner, information from data analytics company Neoval suggests, with capital city prices increasing by 1.9 percent since December.
Ray White chief economist Nerida Conisbee said while it’s unlikely increases will happen at the same pace that they did during the pandemic, the market appears to have stabilised, with Sydney leading the way. Neoval data showed Sydney prices have increased 2.7 percent, followed by Canberra and Melbourne, which both saw a 2.0 percent rise. Hobart and Brisbane prices went up by 1.8 percent, while Adelaide (1.4 percent), Perth (1.3 percent) and Darwin (1.1 percent) rounded out the capitals.
Ms Conisbee noted that the increases reflected different circumstances in each capital, making it harder to predict price movements going forward. While a resources boom in Perth and less sensitivity to interest rate rises in areas like Darwin may have contributed to higher prices, flooding in Brisbane last year will continue to put pressure on accessibility to trades in that city as homeowners try to rebuild.
The impact of further interest rate rises and fixed rate home loans soon ending for a substantial number of borrowers across the country was also yet to be felt. The RBA is scheduled to meet tomorrow, with most experts predicting a further rate rise.
“If house prices do now show a continual increase from this point forward it highlights the complexity of property markets,” Ms Conisbee said. “House prices are very sensitive to interest rates and there is almost complete consensus that these will continue to increase for a bit longer.
“We also have a lot of loans coming off fixed rates and this is likely to make some investment properties less financially attractive. It will also mean that holding a vacant property such as a holiday home, less desirable. It is likely more properties will come to market.”
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Office rents in Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane are climbing at their fastest pace since the pandemic as tenants compete for premium CBD space amid tightening supply.
Australia’s major CBD office markets are recording some of their strongest rental growth since the pandemic, with businesses increasingly prioritising premium office space despite elevated geopolitical and economic uncertainty.
Knight Frank’s Australian Office Indicators Q1 2026 report found net effective rents in Sydney and Melbourne CBDs rose at their fastest annual pace since COVID-19, increasing 10.2 per cent and 6.8 per cent respectively over the 12 months to March.
Brisbane posted the strongest growth nationally, with net effective rents climbing 11.7 per cent over the same period.
The report points to a widening divide between prime CBD office towers and secondary office stock, as occupiers increasingly focus on quality, location and workplace amenity when making leasing decisions.
Knight Frank Senior Economist, Research & Consulting Alistair Read said demand remained heavily concentrated in premium assets within core CBD precincts, helping drive stronger rental growth in top-tier buildings.
“Occupier demand continues to be heavily concentrated in the most desirable CBD precincts and the highest-quality buildings, accelerating a sharp divergence between core and non-core markets,” Mr Read said.
According to the report, Sydney’s Core precinct and Melbourne’s Eastern Core significantly outperformed broader CBD markets over the past year.
“In Sydney’s Core precinct and Melbourne’s Eastern Core, net effective rents surged 14.3% and 16.1% over the past year, significantly outperforming the rest-of-CBD precincts,” Mr Read said.
The rental gap between prime and non-prime office locations has also continued to widen sharply.
“As a result, core CBD rents are now 54% higher than non-core locations in Sydney and 93% higher in Melbourne, highlighting the growing premium placed on amenity, accessibility and workplace quality,” he said.
Knight Frank said the strong rental growth across the major CBDs was being underpinned by a limited supply pipeline, with few new office developments expected to be delivered in the near term.
Mr Read said subdued construction activity was likely to support ongoing rental growth and tighter vacancy rates over the medium term, particularly for premium office towers.
“The combination of sustained demand and declining levels of new development will aid ongoing prime rental growth and lower vacancy rates over the medium term, particularly for best-in-class assets,” he said.
The report noted that current economic conditions were making new office developments increasingly difficult to justify financially.
“Economic rents remain well above expected market rents, making the construction of new office towers largely unviable, and concentrating tenant demand into existing buildings,” Mr Read said.
While suburban office markets generally remained subdued compared with CBDs, Melbourne’s Southbank precinct was identified as a relative outperformer, recording annual net effective rental growth of 2.7 per cent.
The report comes as broader Asia-Pacific office markets continue to stabilise following several years of disruption linked to hybrid work trends, inflation and rising interest rates.
Knight Frank’s separate Asia-Pacific Q1 2026 Office Highlights report found Sydney and Brisbane were among the strongest-performing office rental markets in the region, behind only Bengaluru and Tokyo for annual prime net face rental growth.
The Asia-Pacific report also found 18 of the 24 cities monitored across the region recorded stable or increasing rents in the first quarter of 2026, even as geopolitical uncertainty intensified following escalating conflict in the Middle East.
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