Banks Ease Away From Apartment Lending
The move away from apartment development has left a gap for non-bank lenders.
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Banks have been warier of lending to apartment developers over the past financial year, allowing the ever-expanding pool of non-bank lenders to enter the market.
According to analyses from property and construction consultancy Plan1, the banking sector’s exposure to apartment developers fell 7% to $32 billion in 2017, when apartment construction was booming. It was 18% lower than the peak $39 billion exposure of 22008.
As of June 30 of the 119,000 apartments under construction, worth about $46 billion once completed, the banks have exposure to approx. 70%.
The big four banks are, perhaps to be expected, wearing the brunt of the exposure with 76% of the funding coming from ANZ, CBA, NAB and Westpac. According to Plan1 co-founder and director Richard Jenkins, this figure represents the bank’s lowest share of the market since mid-2018.
While banks slow their approach to apartment development lending and increase their barriers to funding through pre-sales and large deposits, smaller, non-bank lenders are filling the void.
MaxCap, one of the nation’s leading non-bank commercial real estate lenders has been one of the more active entities in recent years.
In a recent interview with the Australian Financial Review, MaxCap NSW director David Oudshoorn outlined his confidence in the Sydney market over the next few years.
Mr Oudshoorn isn’t the only one bullish about the market with Qualitas, Wingate and Pallas Capital all providing funds to developers.
The nation’s biggest lender – the Commonwealth bank – revealed in its half-year results in February that only 35 of its 77.5 billion exposure to commercial real estate debt was to developers.
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Chris Dixon, a partner who led the charge, says he has a ‘very long-term horizon’
Ray White’s chief economist outlines her predictions for housing market trends in 2024
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Ray White’s chief economist, Nerida Conisbee says property price growth will continue next year and mortgage holders will need to “survive until 2025” amid expectations of higher interest rates for longer.
Ms Conisbee said strong population growth and a housing supply shortage combatted the impact of rising interest rates in 2023, leading to unusually strong price growth during a rate hiking cycle. The latest CoreLogic data shows home values have increased by more than 10 percent in the year to date in Sydney, Brisbane and Perth. Among the regional markets, price growth has been strongest in regional South Australia with 8.6 percent growth and regional Queensland at 6.9 percent growth.
“As interest rates head close to peak, it is expected that price growth will continue. At this point, housing supply remains extremely low and many people that would be new home buyers are being pushed into the established market,” Ms Conisbee said. “Big jumps in rents are pushing more first home buyers into the market and population growth is continuing to be strong.”
Ms Conisbee said interest rates will be higher for longer due to sticky inflation. “… we are unlikely to see a rate cut until late 2024 or early 2025. This means mortgage holders need to survive until 2025, paying far more on their home loans than they did two years ago.”
Buyers in coastal areas currently have a window of opportunity to take advantage of softer prices, Ms Conisbee said. “Look out for beach house bargains over summer but you need to move quick. In many beachside holiday destinations, we saw a sharp rise in properties for sale and a corresponding fall in prices. This was driven by many pandemic driven holiday home purchases coming back on to the market.”
3 key housing market trends for 2024
Here are three of Ms Conisbee’s predictions for the key housing market trends of 2024.
Luxury apartment market to soar
Ms Conisbee said the types of apartments being built have changed dramatically amid more people choosing to live in apartments longer-term and Australia’s ageing population downsizing. “Demand is increasing for much larger, higher quality, more expensive developments. This has resulted in the most expensive apartments in Australia seeing price increases more than double those of an average priced apartment. This year, fewer apartments being built, growing population and a desire to live in some of Australia’s most sought-after inner urban areas will lead to a boom in luxury apartment demand.”
Homes to become even greener
The rising costs of energy and the health impacts of heat are two new factors driving interest in green homes, Ms Conisbee said. “Having a greener home utilising solar and batteries makes it cheaper to run air conditioning, heaters and pool pumps. We are heading into a particularly hot summer and having homes that are difficult to cool down makes them far more dangerous for the elderly and very young.”
More people living alone
For some time now, long-term social changes such as delayed marriage and an ageing population have led to more people living alone. However, Ms Conisbee points out that the pandemic also showed that many people prefer to live alone for lifestyle reasons. “Shorter term, the pandemic has shown that given the chance, many people prefer to live alone with a record increase in single-person households during the time. This trend may influence housing preferences, with a potential rise in demand for smaller dwellings and properties catering to individuals rather than traditional family units.”
Consumers are going to gravitate toward applications powered by the buzzy new technology, analyst Michael Wolf predicts
Chris Dixon, a partner who led the charge, says he has a ‘very long-term horizon’
