ASX uranium stocks go gangbusters as the world turns to nuclear energy
Australia’s three biggest uranium shares have hit 10-year highs in 2023
Australia’s three biggest uranium shares have hit 10-year highs in 2023
Uranium is set to play a major role in the world’s green energy transition, with many nations proactively developing their nuclear energy capacity to reduce their reliance on fossil fuels for power generation in the future.
Whilst most nations are pursuing renewables and green energy storage systems as their definitive long-term solution for climate change, it is likely not possible to develop enough wind and solar technology and infrastructure quickly enough to replace fossil fuels in time to meet 2050 net-zero emissions targets.
On top of this, volatile oil and gas prices amid supply uncertainty have enhanced the interest in nuclear power. The pandemic and Russia-Ukraine conflict created significant oil supply disruptions, OPEC has recently placed limits on production, and the Israel-Gaza war may make the situation even worse. AMP Chief Economist Shane Oliver says the global oil price could rise to US$150 per barrel – up from the low $80 range today – if Israel and Iran commence a military engagement.
Against this backdrop, nations are rushing to embrace nuclear technology to act, at least, as an initial first step on the road to a green energy future. According to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), there are approximately 440 reactors in operation across 32 countries today, with 56 new ones under construction. Monash Investors estimates there are another 100 reactors in the advanced planning stages across 17 countries. China alone is expected to build 32 new reactors by the end of the 2020s.
Surging demand for uranium has been met with low existing inventories. This has created a perfect storm for the global uranium price, which is now at a 12-year high of US$73 per pound. The rising uranium price has made it economical for many mining companies to restart dormant mines and develop new ones in the face of new and likely ongoing long-term demand. “We see prices rising year-on-year for the next 10-20 years or till the world finds another source for large scale uninterruptible base load power with a low carbon footprint,” SP Angel mining analyst John Meyer told Reuters recently.
All of this has led to skyrocketing share prices for ASX uranium stocks this year.
In Australia, nuclear energy is banned. The Federal Opposition has been arguing to include nuclear energy in the mix for Australia’s own green energy transition. The Albanese Government disagrees, advocating for continuing renewables development instead. Federal Energy Minister Chris Bowen says developing local nuclear energy production is too expensive. He says recent modelling shows it would cost $387 billion to replace Australia’s coal-fired power plants with small modular reactors.
The three biggest pure-play uranium shares on the ASX have outperformed the broader market exponentially in 2023. While the S&P/ASX 200 Index has lost 2.5% of its value, Australia’s biggest listed pure-play uranium miners have exploded with share price growth of 40% to 115% between them.
Paladin Energy is the biggest pure-play uranium stock listed on the ASX, with a market capitalisation of $2.81 billion. The Paladin Energy share price closed on Monday at 95 cents, up 43% in 2023 so far. The stock reached a decade-high price of $1.15 in September. According to a survey of analysts on CommSec, five out of seven analysts covering Paladin Energy shares rate them a strong buy.
Boss Energy has a market capitalisation of $1.59 billion. The Boss Energy share price closed on Monday at $4.37, up 115% in 2023. It hit an all-time record price of $4.98 in September. Three out of six analysts covering Boss Energy shares rate them a hold.
Deep Yellow has a market capitalisation of $963 million. The Deep Yellow share price closed yesterday at $1.27, up 85% in 2023. The stock cracked a 10-year high of $1.41 per share in October. Three out of three analysts covering Deep Yellow shares rate them a strong buy.
BNW Developments has established a Sydney presence, joining Arada and Sobha Realty among the growing number of UAE developers pursuing Australian buyers and development opportunities.
Australian shares fell on Thursday as Wall Street weakness, rising oil and persistent rate concerns weighed on most of the market. The S&P/ASX 200 declined 0.72 per cent to 8,702. The All Ordinaries lost 0.66 per cent to finish at 8,897. Mining stocks were hit particularly hard, while real estate also dragged on the index. …
Continue reading “ASX falls 0.7 per cent as miners and property stocks retreat”
OpenAI has shelved the planned launch of GPT-6.1 Astra after internal tests raised concerns about deception and agents acting beyond user authorization, according to The Wall Street Journal. The company says it will investigate the issues and strengthen safety measures before releasing future models.
OpenAI says it is scrapping the release of its next-generation AI model over safety concerns that researchers raised during internal testing, in one of the clearest signs so far that agent misbehavior could stymie the industry’s rapid progression.
The move follows a summer punctuated by reports of artificial-intelligence systems industrywide going rogue, and marks a rare case of a major AI developer ditching a new release because of safety concerns.
The company had planned to launch the model, known as GPT-6.1 Astra, in the coming days or weeks, aiming for an October debut. The model was more capable than the company’s previous models in completing challenging tasks from end-to-end without human assistance, as well as writing.
The company instead will focus on improving the safety of future models, which it expects to be even more capable.
Saachi Jain, OpenAI’s head of safety systems, said in an interview that GPT-6.1 Astra regressed in two areas. Compared with its predecessor, GPT-6 Astra, the model performed poorly on tests measuring alignment, or how well the model adheres to what humans would like it to do. Specifically, GPT-6.1 Astra showed higher levels of deception: It wasn’t always honest about telling users of the actions it did or didn’t take.
Another issue was what OpenAI calls “scope authorization,” meaning that GPT-6.1 Astra would push ahead on a task without asking the user for permission, and would at times reach for external tools and services even if it might be unsafe.
“For anything regarding safety and alignment, there’s a trade off,” Jain said. “You really do need to find what’s the right line between staying within scope, but also avoiding laziness in terms of how the model actually pursues tasks even when it hits friction.”
While GPT-6.1 Astra improved in areas such as “model laziness,” Jain said it didn’t quite meet OpenAI’s bar for safety and alignment, so the company decided not to launch the model publicly.
The announcement comes one day ahead of OpenAI’s annual developer conference in San Francisco. In the past, OpenAI has used the conference as an opportunity to launch new models and services that reduce costs for software developers—a segment the ChatGPT-maker competes with rival AI company Anthropic to win over.
In recent weeks, OpenAI and Anthropic have called on industry partners to slow down the development of cutting-edge AI models and invest in safety standards, noting they will temper the pace of their own internal AI progress.
OpenAI says it is working to investigate a range of agent security incidents that it has discovered in recent months, and address the safety issues underneath them. As part of the work, the company has implemented a new monitoring system to catch AI-agent misbehavior more quickly, and started requiring engineers to use stronger security guardrails for testing its AI systems.
Earlier this summer hundreds of OpenAI’s internal agents, which were tasked with completing a cybersecurity test, ended up hacking into the AI company Hugging Face. Since then, high-profile organizations such as the Australian government and United Nations discovered that OpenAI’s agents used similar, but less extensive, techniques to gain access to their websites.
Many of the publicly known agent-security incidents involved OpenAI’s internal AI models that were never slated for public release.
Last week, OpenAI said it paused training on its most capable AI models after an AI agent slipped through a gap in the company’s internet restrictions to query a public chatbot. The company said its new monitoring systems flagged the incident within 15 minutes, and training on these models remains paused.
GPT-6.1 Astra isn’t one of those models, but a different case, the company said.
“We want to make sure our model development is safe no matter whether that’s in the company, or when we ship it to users,” Jain said. “But when we ship it to users, we have an extremely high bar in terms of safety and alignment.”
While the company decided not to ship GPT-6.1 Astra, it hopes to use the same base model to do additional reinforcement learning runs, and create future generations of its GPT-6 models.
OpenAI plans to conduct several deep dives to identify the root cause of the problems identified in GPT-6.1 Astra, Jain said. The work includes ensuring that OpenAI’s reinforcement learning environments are rewarding the right type of behavior, Jain added, though she noted the company would investigate all stages of model development.
AI companies have begun to draw scrutiny from policymakers and public officials, who are paying attention to the rapid development of the technology. Later this week, a Senate subcommittee is holding a hearing with third party AI researchers titled, “Rogue AI: Securing the Homeland Against AI Agent Attacks.”
Florida Attorney General James Uthmeier, a Republican, sued OpenAI in June, claiming that the company and Chief Executive Sam Altman knowingly released an unsafe product and ignored warnings that it could harm users.
In a motion for temporary injunction filed Monday, Uthmeier sought to prevent OpenAI from developing new AI models without third-party approved safeguards, stop ChatGPT from soliciting user engagement and limit the company’s ability to advertise ChatGPT as safe.
Tech companies claim they “cannot stop barreling forward with their potentially civilization-ending endeavors unless they are forced to do so by the government,” Uthmeier said in the filing. “The Florida Attorney General is answering your cry for help.”
An OpenAI spokeswoman said that people want to know AI is being developed safely, “and that starts with what companies like ours do ourselves.”
“Governments have an important role to play in setting robust safety standards for AI, and we’re committed to working with Florida and other states on advancing pragmatic AI policies that apply to the entire AI industry—not just one company,” she said.
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